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blks 5 hours ago

Waymo is an expensive taxi service, not a solution to public transport.

ggreer 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In 2025, TriMet had 262 million passenger miles at a system cost of $812 million, for a cost of $3.09 per passenger mile.[1] Fares covered 7.8% of their costs. The other 92.2% came from payroll taxes and federal grants.

For comparison, a Lyft or Uber in the same area would cost you $1-2 per mile. Obviously it's not feasible for all 200k daily riders to take Uber/Lyft, and the Uber/Lyft cost doesn't include externalities like extra traffic, but TriMet is very expensive per passenger mile.

1. https://trimet.org/about/pdf/trimetridership.pdf

array_key_first 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is an implementation problem, not a problem with the underlying concept.

Public transit like buses and lightrail are significantly more efficient per person than personal vehicles. This is because they can transport many more people for the same amount of space and energy. They also typically run on set tracks, which yields more efficiency gains.

The US is really, really bad at doing public transit. It doesn't help that everything is car centric, which makes public transit much harder.

For example, in your comment you're excluding road cost, but you're including the full system cost of transit. That's a car centric side effect, e.g. we take roads for granted. But the cost of cars also includes the cost of roads, the cost of land under those roads, the cost of parking, etc.

ggreer 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The $812 million figure for 2025 did not include the cost to build the rail system. Nor did it include many other expenses. TriMet's expenditures for this year are $1.185 billion.[1]

If you divide passenger miles for TriMet busses (141,726,107) by the number of revenue miles (21,195,016), you get an average of 6.7 passengers per bus, or around 10% of available seats. For MAX (the train) you get an average of 27.4 passengers per train, or around 16% of available seats. In both cases that's seats, not total capacity including standing room. I realize it's important to provision the system for peak demand, but still this seems very wasteful.

And because road wear scales with the fourth power of axle loading, a bus will typically cause 1,000x more road damage than a car.[2] Assuming every car on the road has only one occupant, this means that, on average, a TriMet bus causes 150x more road wear per occupant. The main externality created by cars is traffic.

I agree with you that public transportation can work. It clearly does in many places. But Portland's public transportation is dysfunctional, and I don't see that changing any time soon. That's why substitutes (even partial substitutes like Waymo) are beneficial. The more options people have for getting around, the better off they'll be.

1. https://trimet.org/budget/pdf/2026-adopted-budget.pdf

2. https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/yes-bus-more-road-da...

bradleybuda 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> This is an implementation problem, not a problem with the underlying concept.

I agree. The question remains - why do U.S. municipalities universally and repeatedly fail to successfully implement rapid transit at an efficient price point? Buses, trains, and subways in America have ever-growing budgets (both in absolute and per customer mile terms) with ever-declining quality of service. Just asking for more tax revenue again and again is not the solution.

baron816 an hour ago | parent [-]

The problem seems to be that many people view government services as a jobs program. Unfortunately, you can't maximize the number of well paying jobs a program creates AND provide high quality service AND control costs.

rootusrootus 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> buses and lightrail are significantly more efficient per person than personal vehicles

Assuming the transit is fully utilized and the car is mostly not. And maybe that's a good way to look at it. But in Portland the light rail is often well under capacity, and in that case a carpool likely wins on efficiency.

> the cost of cars also includes the cost of roads, the cost of land under those roads, the cost of parking

Partially. Those roads will have to exist even if we did not have personal cars.

array_key_first 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Right, the reason it might be underutilized is if you're bad at designing cities for it. Which the US is, so it is.

We design cities for cars, which results in the cities spreading out further and further, which makes transit less desirable and more expensive. Other countries don't have this problem to this degree, because they don't design their cities exclusively for cars.

Also, I don't think most roads would need to exist if the amount of cars decreased. Because of the density problem noted above. Cars are sort of self-eating. The more cars you use, the more land-per-car you need as everything spreads further out to accommodate the cars.

xnx an hour ago | parent [-]

> is if you're bad at designing cities for it

Consider that the transportation system might not be the best fit if it requires designing the rest of the world differently and against preferences (large, detached, single-family homes with a yard).

troupo 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Assuming the transit is fully utilized and the car is mostly not.

The car is mostly not.

> But in Portland the light rail is often well under capacity,

Haven't looked deeply into it, but looking at how the US plans and designs its public transport, I'm surprised anyone was using it at all.

xnx an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Train-advocates being against self-driving cars will be recognized as being equivalent to environmentalists being against nuclear power. Fortunately, I don't expect train-advocates as being nearly as successful. Once someone has tried Waymo, there's no going back to the old ways.

onethought an hour ago | parent [-]

But you're ignoring the core point (in both your metaphor and in the argument at hand):

- If everyone took a Waymo... Waymo sucks. Not true of trains.

($/MW of power is stupid with nuclear in the age of solar and batteries, with basically zero safety concern... i.e. you can deploy solar and batteries to houses... not so much for nuclear)

coryrc 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> in your comment you're excluding road cost

Partially not, as gas taxes cover part of it. I think gas and diesel taxes should cover the full cost of roads, which would help. Still doesn't mean transit should be run so inefficiently.

jandrewrogers 3 hours ago | parent [-]

FWIW, some States require roads be funded exclusively with gas and use (e.g. vehicle registration) taxes. This does seem to significantly incentivize efficiency and long-term planning because their budget has to anticipate variable revenue.

shimman 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Oh wow I didn't know Uber solely relied on private roads, had their own DMV, or fleet of millions of cars; truly an innovative company that doesn't rely on public infrastructure!

danaw 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

try it again while calculating infrastructure and road costs for 262mm uber/lyft rides

xnx an hour ago | parent [-]

Because roads are a shared resource used by everyone (even non car owners) Uber/Lyft's portion is small and covered by taxes they already pay.

rhubarbtree 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What about infrastructure costs for lyft and uber?

Perhaps it isn’t expensive once you consider the peak load and externalities. How many new roads would you have to build to do that?

Schiendelman 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The cost of providing a bus exceeds the cost of operating a car in many cases, like lower population density neighborhoods. It may save the public money to centralize transit on major corridors and then subsidize trips on Waymo in some areas and at some times.

danaw 4 hours ago | parent [-]

how many people can fit in a bus compared to a car?

coryrc 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Doesn't matter if there's only four people willing to ride on a given schedule.

jrflowers 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That is an argument for buses on well-designed routes and schedules, not an argument against buses.

It is like saying “that bus would be useless at the bottom of a lake”

well, yeah. The first step would be not driving it into a lake

cameldrv 2 hours ago | parent [-]

It depends on the population density. You may have a perfectly well designed route for the area, but there are only so many people per hour that want to take a trip. You can delete routes and make people walk further, but that makes the trip take longer and not everyone can or wants to walk a long ways to the bus stop.

Different population densities have different optimal vehicle sizes. It's the same reason a small city airport might have one or two regional jets per day serving it instead of 2 747s per week.

jrflowers 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yep, you definitely want a range of bus sizes. Some areas are served perfectly well with a couple of these

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Minotour

Schiendelman 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Centralize transit on major corridors" is about full buses. But transit agencies spend as much per hour on an empty bus as a full one. Transit agencies run empty buses on routes that are rarely full, and run vans and even microtransit that may just be a waste of money.

bryanlarsen 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The OP you're responding suggested using Waymo's to help fill the buses, not get rid of buses.

Schiendelman 26 minutes ago | parent [-]

I suggested both. Milk runs through suburban neighborhoods likely make sense to get rid of entirely.

kristjansson 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If it can deliver transit to the public at a reasonable price…

jazzypants 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Even five dollars a ride would be twice the price. It's just not comparable.

thereisnospork 4 hours ago | parent [-]

How many tax dollars go into subsidizing a public transit ride? Varies from place to place but it's not insignificant.

danaw 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

how many tax dollars go to roads and bridges just for cars?

coryrc 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Too many, but at least some are directly on vehicles. Transit (in the USA, on the West coast) is funded >90% by taxes on income, property, vehicle registration, fuel, etc not by the people using it.

xnx an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Everyone uses the roads. You have to reach for very obscure examples to find commerce that doesn't utilize roads. Every bit of concrete and steel to build transit was at some point transported over roads.

rootusrootus 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Varies from place to place but it's not insignificant

jrflowers 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

https://trimet.org/budget/pdf/2026-adopted-budget.pdf

Tax revenue was $555mm

https://trimet.org/about/pdf/trimetridership.pdf

~122,300,000 rides (originating + boarding)

So about $4.53 per ride.

The Portland metro is ~2.5mm people, so about $222/resident/yr.

Portland metro area residents pay on average about sixty cents per day to subsidize TriMet.

Roughly 1/43rd the average cost of ownership for a new car in Oregon.

https://info.oregon.aaa.com/how-much-does-it-really-cost-to-...

loeg 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

At the margin, it substitutes for some trips.