| ▲ | senordevnyc 2 days ago | ||||||||||||||||||||||
The consumer car market will collapse 50-80% by 2040 Absolutely not. You're correct about Waymo having solved self-driving cars, but approximately no one is going to choose using Waymo over owning a self-driving car, just like approximately no one did that back in 2015 with Uber. Sure, a few bloggers in major urban areas did, but they represent a tiny, tiny fraction of the global market. People like owning cars, for a variety of reasons, and I don't think that's going to change. Even if I took Waymo 80% of the time, I'd still want a car. And I hate owning cars! It just beats the alternatives. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | tristanj 2 days ago | parent [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Many, many people will switch, because the cost difference is absurd. The cost per mile for a personal EV is $0.75/mi. The cost per mile for a shared AV EV (at scale) is $0.40/mi. People will save hundreds of dollars per months by not owning a car. Millions of Americans can barely make their car payments, car payments + insurance are the second highest expense for most households, and I can absolutely see a huge percentage of this group switching to self-driving rideshare only. I'd generally agree with you that people want to own cars, but for many infrequent drivers it does not make sense to own. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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