| ▲ | yongjik 4 hours ago |
| > It is fundamental to language modeling that every sequence of tokens is possible. This is just trivially wrong that I don't understand why people repeat it. There are many valid criticisms of LLM (especially the LLMs we currently have), this isn't one of them. It's akin to saying that every molecules behave randomly according to statistical physics, so you should expect your ceiling to spontaneously disintegrate any day, and if you find yourself under the rubble one day it's just a consequence of basic physics. |
|
| ▲ | nkrisc 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > It's akin to saying that every molecules behave randomly according to statistical physics, so you should expect your ceiling to spontaneously disintegrate any day, and if you find yourself under the rubble one day it's just a consequence of basic physics. Except your ceiling can and will fall on you unless you take preventative measures, entirely due to molecular interactions within the material. Barring that, it is entirely possible and even quite likely that your ceiling will collapse on you or someone else some time in the future. It boggles the mind to let an LLM have access to a production database without having explicit preventative measures and contingency plans for it deleting it. |
| |
| ▲ | margalabargala 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I have lived about 40 years beneath ceilings and never personally taken a preventative measure. I allow my kids to walk under not only our own ceiling, but other people's ceilings, and I have never asked those people if their ceilings were properly maintained. | | |
| ▲ | nkrisc 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Your home almost certainly has preventative measures, including proper humidity and temperature control, structural reinforcement, etc. I don't mean that you personally have taken those measures, but preventative measures have absolutely been taken. When they aren't, ceilings collapse on people. See any sheetrock ceiling with a leak above it. Or look at any abandoned building: they will eventually always have collapsed floors/ceilings. It is inevitable. | |
| ▲ | withinboredom 12 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've had a ceiling fall on me once and once to a friend while on vacation. Just because it hasn't happened to you doesn't mean it hasn't happened to other people. | |
| ▲ | nclin_ 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Construction regulation is the preventative measure. |
|
|
|
| ▲ | caminante 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The parent is also incorrectly re-phrasing Murphy's Law -- "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong." Actual quote: > “If there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe, then someone will do it that way.” |
| |
| ▲ | ses1984 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Engineering controls basically mean making it impossible to do something in a way that results in catastrophe. | |
| ▲ | maxbond 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'd be interested to hear why my restatement was incorrect. I'm confident that it's what Murphy meant, mostly because I've read his other laws and that's what I recall as the general through line. But that's was a long time ago and perhaps I'm misremembering or was misinterpreting at the time. |
|
|
| ▲ | chrsw 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Ceilings do fall on people. LLMs do delete production databases. Will these things always inevitably happen? No, but the moment it does happen to someone I doubt they will be thinking about probabilities or Murphy's law or whatever. I guess the question is, since we know these things can happen, however unlikely, what mitigations should be in place that are commensurate with the harms that might result? |
| |
| ▲ | yongjik 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Mostly, I agree with you. My complaint is that, when the ceiling fails, nobody says "Duh ceilings are supposed to fail, that's basic physics." Because that (1) helps nobody, and (2) betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of physics. And I do think it's stupid to wire an LLM to a production database. Modern LLMs aren't that reliable (at least not yet), and the cost-benefit tradeoff does not make sense. (What do you even gain by doing that?) However, you can't just look at that and say "Duh, this setup is bound to fail, because LLMs can generate every arbitrary sequence of tokens." That's a wrong explanation, and shows a misunderstanding of how LLMs (and probability) work. | | |
| ▲ | maxbond 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | What is the right understanding of how LLMs work and what is the correct diagnosis? | | |
| ▲ | yongjik 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | As I said, I believe statistical physics is a very good intuitional guidance. Molecules move randomly. That does not mean a cup of water will spontaneously boil itself. Sometimes the probability of something happening is so low that even if it's not mathematically zero it does not matter because you'll never observe it in the known universe. LLM generating each token probabilistically does not mean there's a realistic chance of generating any random stuff, where we can define "realistic" as "If we transform the whole known universe into data centers and run this model until the heat death of the universe, we will encounter it at least once." Of course that does not mean LLMs are infallible. It fails all the time! But you can't explain it as a fundamental shortcoming of a probabilistic structure: that's not a logical argument. Or, back to the original discussion, the fact that this one particular LLM generated a command to delete the database is not a fundamental shortcoming of LLM architecture. It's just a shortcoming of LLMs we currently have. | | |
| ▲ | maxbond 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I kinda feel like we're talking across purposes, so I'd like to understand what our disagreement actually is. In distributional language modeling, it is assumed that any series of tokens may appear and we are concerned with assigning probabilities to those sequences. We don't create explicit grammars that declare some sequences valid and others invalid. Do you disagree with that? Why? No matter how much prompting you give the agent, it does not eliminate the possibility that it will produce a dangerous output. It is always possible for the agent to produce a dangerous output. Do you disagree with that? Why? The only defensible position is to assume that there is no output your agent cannot produce, and so to assume it will produce dangerous outputs and act accordingly. Do you disagree with that? Why? | | |
| ▲ | yongjik 31 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I think I've already explained my position, and I don't have any deeper insight than that, so I'll be only repeating myself. But to repeat one more time: when talking about probability, there's something like "not mathematically zero, but the probability is so low that we can assume that it will just never happen." And it's good that we can think that way, because we also follow the rules of statistical and quantum physics, which are inherently probabilistic. So, basically, you can say the same things about people. There's a nonzero (but extremely small) probability that I'll suddenly go mad and stab the next person. There's a nonzero (but even smaller) probability that I'll spontaneously erupt into a cloud of lethal pathogen that will destroy humanity. Yada yada. Yet, nobody builds houses under the assumption that one of the occupants would transform into a lethal cloud, and for good reason. Yes, it does sound a bit more absurd when we apply it to humans. But the underlying principle is very similar. (I think this will be my last comment here because I'm just repeating myself.) |
|
|
|
| |
| ▲ | Negitivefrags 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > I guess the question is, since we know these things can happen, however unlikely, what mitigations should be in place that are commensurate with the harms that might result? This isn't a defence of using LLMs like this, but this statement taken at face value is a source of a lot of terrible things in the world. This is the kind of stuff that leads to a world where kids are no longer able to play outside. |
|
|
| ▲ | maxbond 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > This is just trivially wrong that I don't understand why people repeat it. I'd be interested in hearing this argument. To address your chemistry example; in the same way that there is a process (the averaging of many random interactions) that leads to a deterministic outcome even though the underlying process is random, a sandbox is a process that makes an agent safe to operate even though it is capable of producing destructive tool calls. |
| |
| ▲ | stratos123 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I wouldn't say it's trivially wrong but it's pretty much always wrong. There's two notable sampling parameters, `top-k` and `top-p`. When using an LLM for precise work rather than e.g. creative writing, one usually samples with the `top-p` parameter, and `top-k` is I think pretty much always used. And when sampling with either of these enabled, the set of possible tokens that the sampler chooses from (according to the current temperature) is much smaller than the set of all tokens, so most sequences are not in fact possible. It's only true that all sequences have a nonzero probability if you're sampling without either of these and with nonzero temperature. | | |
| ▲ | xmodem 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | So it's only wrong in a technical and pedantic sense. A better phrasing might have been along the lines of "There are many sequences of tokens that will destroy your production database that are within the set of possible outputs" | | |
| ▲ | maxbond 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | "Everything that can go wrong, will go wrong" isn't literally true either, some failure modes are mutually exclusive so at most one of them will go wrong. I think that the punchy phrasing and the mental model are both more useful from the standpoint of someone creating/managing agents and that it is true in the sense that any other mental model or rule of thumb is true. It's literally true among spherical cows in a frictionless vacuum and directionally correct in the real world with it's nuances. And most importantly adopting the mental model leads to better outcomes. But it may be a bad mental model in other contexts, like debugging models. As an extreme example models is that collapse during training become strictly deterministic, eg a language model that always predicts the most common token and never takes into account it's context. |
| |
| ▲ | setr 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In a given run, only the top-k sequences are selected. Across all runs, any sequence can be generated, and potentially scored highly. Thus, any sequence can eventually be selected. | |
| ▲ | maxbond 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There will be details like rounding errors that will make certain sequences unreachable in practice, but that shouldn't provide you any comfort unless you know your dangerous outputs fall into that space. But they absolutely don't; the sequences we're interested in - well structured tool calls that contain dangerous parameters but are otherwise indistinguishable from desirable tool calls - are actually pretty probable. The probability that an ideal, continuous LLM would output a 0 for a particular token in it's distribution is itself 0. The probability that an LLM using real floating point math isn't terrifically higher than 0. | | |
| ▲ | 317070 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Source: I write transformers for a living. There is a piece of knowledge you seem to be missing. Yes, a transformer will output a distribution over all possible tokens at a given step. And none of these are indeed zero, but always at least larger than epsilon. However, we usually don't sample from that distribution at inference time! The common approach (called nucleus sampling or also known as top-p sampling) will look at the largest probabilities that make up 95% of the probability mass. It will set all other probabilities to zero, renormalize, and then sample from the resulting probability distribution. There is another parameter `top-k`, and if k is 50, it means that you zero out any token that is not in the 50 most likely tokens. In effect, it means that for any token that is sampled, there is usually really only a handful of candidates out of the thousands of tokens that can be selected. So during sampling, most trajectories for the agent are literally impossible. | | |
| ▲ | hunterpayne 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Thank you for the explanation. But you do understand why none of that matters after the prod DB is gone right? Yes there should be backups but when management fires ops and dumps that work on the devs, it doesn't tend to happen. So I want you to understand this. You are basically selling heroin to junkies and then acting like the consequences aren't in any way your fault. Management will far too often jump at false promises made by your execs. Your technology is inherently non-deterministic. Therefore your promises can't be true. Yet you are going to continue being part of a machine that destroys businesses and lives. Please at least act like you understand this. | |
| ▲ | maxbond 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I appreciate the information, I am weak on the details of LLM sampling algorithms, but I already conceded that the statement isn't literally true of realized models (it's true of idealized models) and the tokens we're concerned with are likely to be in the renormalized distribution because the desired and dangerous tokens are virtually the same. |
|
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | techblueberry 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > so you should expect your ceiling to spontaneously disintegrate any day, I mean, I do? |
| |
| ▲ | djhn 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Throughout history people have taken precautions against ceilings disintegrating. One might even say, ”strong engineering controls”. Some of the best known laws from the ~1700BC Babylonian legal text, The Code of Hammurabi, are laws 228-233, which deal with building regulations. 229. If a builder builds a house for a man and does not make its construction firm, and the house which he has built collapses and causes the death of the owner of the house, that builder shall be put to death. 230. If it causes the death of the son of the owner of the house, they shall put to death a son of that builder. 233. If a builder constructs a house for a man but does not make it conform to specifications so that a wall then buckles, that builder shall make that wall sound using his silver (at his own expense). That doesn’t sound like ceilings never disintegrated! |
|