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tristanj 6 hours ago

I did not expect Nio's 5-minute battery swap technology to become obsolete this soon.

c9lgPZqHNGdC1V1 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If anything, Nio battery swap stations would allow car users to swap to newer types of battery as they become available. I say this knowing Nio is one of CATL's most important partners[1].

[1] https://eletric-vehicles.com/catl/catl-calls-nio-an-irreplac...

newyankee 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In a well designed urban environment where cars have space for 2-3 modular batteries with swapping capabilities, I see no reason why taxis etc. need to carry battery payload > 150 km of range needed for local use, which would mean better fuel efficiency as well. Battery swapping done right is integral to this

0xfaded 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Sorry, but I giggled at this. A well designed urban environment would have no cars.

taskforcegemini 5 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

but you/stuff still needs to go from a to b. taxis (or individual self driving pods) should however be the future of public transport.

horsawlarway 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Frankly - I agree with this take.

If anything - my opinion at this point is that cars were a mistake in vehicle sizing caused by internal combustion engines.

For the vast, vast majority of ubran transit, something akin to a bike in size seems to make more sense.

We see this already in urban regions in India/Asia where scooters are the predominate transportation method, and I think even traditional scooters are heavy enough to be problematic.

But a class 2 ebike (so throttle with no need to pedal) can weigh as little as 40lbs (20kg), and go 30 miles at 20mph.

It's insane that we're not designing urban transit for bikes at this point. Much better density, much safer, much easier to store and park, much cheaper to operate and license.

vfclists an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Cars,those urban monstrosities the vehicles that weigh over 25 times their payload and take up 20 times the space on the roads.

Should I adjust the figures for American sizes?

Should I also add that they are engineered to travel at speeds over 120 mph and usually ply the trade environments where 30 mph is a dangerous speed?

an hour ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
DennisP 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That'd be an interesting situation. They'd probably replace their fleet of batteries gradually, so with each swap sometimes you'd get upgraded, sometimes downgraded. Your range and home charging curves would change with the batteries, and Nio would have to update the battery management software when it puts in a different battery type.

But over time, you'd get upgraded on average without having to pay for a new battery, as long as Nio kept updating to keep its batteries competitive.

pjc50 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is in fact the main argument to me why swaps would never work at all, economically: the "state" of the battery is a significant part of the value of the car. Being swapped to a worse one makes you several thousand dollars worse off.

It only works in a leasing scenario, and everyone hates those.

toast0 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think you'd need a contract where you buy (or lease) the car without a battery and lease/rent the battery separately. With some guaranteed offer for a battery with minimum spec X at maximum price Y when you exit the battery program. Preferably, not a mandatory offer, because one hopes specs go up and prices go down over time.

Then have you pay something per month for having a battery (maybe depends on the specific battery installed), something per kWh for charge used, plus a rebate per kWh for charge added. Or roll it into usage tiers, whatever.

There's lots of people that love leasing cars. I don't understand it, but it makes a lot of people happy?

sowbug 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I used to own a truck whose fair market value would double, temporarily, whenever I filled the tank.

cucumber3732842 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How's that any different than putting new tires on a shitbox?

xbmcuser 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Nio already has a service to swap to higher capacity battery if you want to go on a long road trip etc. It prices its cars according to battery capacity so even people that chose lower capacity car on purchase still have the option to swap to a higher capacity battery. Though I think the main use for battery swap technology will be for commercial trucking and if I recall correctly Chinese government and OEM are working on standardisation for that so all those truck batteries are swappable no matter which company builds the battery.

dirck-norman 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

5 minute swap is not needed for this.

cestith an hour ago | parent [-]

Well, if it degrades to 90% after three years, and let’s extrapolate to 81% after another two to three years, then a battery swap in 5 minutes might be reasonable to do instead of charging once every three to five years or so. I guess it depends on the quality and retained capacity on the batteries being swapped in.

maeln 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We should always take marketing number with a huge grain of salt, so the 10 to 98% in 7 minutes remain to be seen. Also, there is the question of if it lowers the battery lifespan faster than charging at lower power. It is does, there might still be a point in battery swap, especially for public transport systems (for bus). A public transit operator might want to have more battery than vehicle, so that they can rotate the battery regularly and charge them at lower power, to diminish and distribute the wear on battery. But that's obviously a big if and a more niche usage.

xbmcuser 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

the life span stat with the current battery tech is mostly useless for a normal car. 300 mile range most people will need to top up 2 times a week 100 times a year 1000 times in 10 years. The battery degradation is not that bad in the first place.

antonkochubey 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

First, with range decreasing, number of charge cycles per mile, and therefore rate of wear, will increase.

Second, average age of car on the road is above 10 years in most countries; and those that drive old cars definitely do not have €26,500* spare to swap their EV's battery for a new one.

*That's what Audi charges here for e-tron 50 battery replacement, which are already starting to fail for many owners

xbmcuser 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Western car manufactures scamming their customer should not be what you look at for costs. Batteries pack costs have gone from $130-150/kwh in 2023 $80-90/kwh in 2026. Price for a pack will likely be under $50/kwh in another 3-4 years. Ie battery packs are becoming competitive with engines already and will be cheaper by 30-40% ie replacing a battery will be cheaper than replacing an engine/

antonkochubey an hour ago | parent [-]

No car manufacturer actually sells battery packs for $80-90/kWh or anywhere near that. That's what it costs THEM, not service customers.

SideburnsOfDoom 21 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

> First, with range decreasing, number of charge cycles per mile, and therefore rate of wear, will increase.

By 10% over 10 years, assuming the worst case of nothing but ultra-fast charging. This seems minor.

Old cheaper cars could be 10% less convenient to use for very long trips. This should not shock anyone.

Rather than an expensive battery swap, sell it on at a lower price to someone who doesn't need 100% range.

SideburnsOfDoom 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> most people will need to top up 2 times a week 100 times a year 1000 times in 10 years.

When it comes to as-fast-as-possible charging, I think you can divide that number by at least 10. Slow charging while parked overnight or during the day should still be the most common case by far for most users. Very fast charging is important for road trips, but it is not the usual case.

3 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
SideburnsOfDoom 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Also, there is the question of if it lowers the battery lifespan faster than charging at lower power.

This kind of fast-as-possible charging rather than overnight or "while parked at the mall for hours" slow charging should be the exception rather than the rule, i.e. it is useful when road-tripping long-distance, but is not not the daily case. Battery lifespan should not be based on assuming that it's the only thing that you ever do.

rcxdude 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Swapping does help reduce the high peak power demands that fast charging has. There's limited places where you can get the infrastructure to install a bank of chargers capable of this kind of speed (though, one potential approach is having a local block of batteries near the charger, but you are then paying the efficiency cost of another battery round-trip, and the cost of the batteries which will get a lot of wear and tear themselves)

NetMageSCW 3 hours ago | parent [-]

But if you need batteries that gives you the opportunity to install solar and reduce your costs more than the efficiency hit.