I often wonder if in the future, the same way early computers used to take up an entire room but now fit in your pocket, if in the future the equivalent of a data center will be a single physical device like a phone nowadays. And if that’s the case, would it happen much quicker since technology has been speeding up year by year?

> And if that’s the case, would it happen much quicker since technology has been speeding up year by year?

I wouldn't expect this.

Historically we've had a roughly exponential rate of shrinkage. If we keep that same exponential going, we should expect the amount of time to shrink "room full of compute" to "pocket full of compute" to be equal.

And recently we've fallen behind that exponential rate of shrinkage. And this is rather expected because exponentials are basically never sustainable rates of growth.

I still expect that technological progress is getting faster year by year, and that we're still shrinking compute, but that's not necessarily enough for the next shrinking to take less time than when we had exponential progress on shrinking.

There’s some early work being done here by companies looking at making LLM ASICS like Taalas (HC1 gets 17k t/s for llama 8b - currently at 2.5kW which is closer to a single server, but this is their first chip).

There’s other options like photonic computing which might be able to reduce power significantly but are still in research as far as I can tell. Because so much money is invested in AI & traditional gpu inference is so power hungry, I would expect significant improvements in this space quickly.