> And if that’s the case, would it happen much quicker since technology has been speeding up year by year?

I wouldn't expect this.

Historically we've had a roughly exponential rate of shrinkage. If we keep that same exponential going, we should expect the amount of time to shrink "room full of compute" to "pocket full of compute" to be equal.

And recently we've fallen behind that exponential rate of shrinkage. And this is rather expected because exponentials are basically never sustainable rates of growth.

I still expect that technological progress is getting faster year by year, and that we're still shrinking compute, but that's not necessarily enough for the next shrinking to take less time than when we had exponential progress on shrinking.