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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge Sure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange. |
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| ▲ | 3eb7988a1663 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms. |
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| ▲ | huorricannes 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | > betting markets offset positions with the real markets Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly. |
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| ▲ | OutOfHere 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market. |
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| ▲ | huorricannes 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market |
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