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andrepd 6 hours ago

The oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge

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JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> oil market is, to put it mildly, fucking huge

Sure. But these aren't trades in "the oil market." They're bets on Polymarket and a specific oil-futures exchange.

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3eb7988a1663 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For sure, the real trading markets are huge. I mean the betting platforms.

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huorricannes 5 hours ago | parent [-]

the betting markets offset positions with the real markets. it's all connected

	▲	JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> betting markets offset positions with the real markets Need a strong source for this. The size (and regulatory) disconnect between the two would seem to make making markets in both a bit silly.

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OutOfHere 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Are you implying that there is arbitrage between the prediction market and the real market? Until now we were assuming that the prediction market is self-contained, with its other side staying within the confines of the prediction market.

	▲	huorricannes 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		the other side can and many times is an arbitrageour which has positions in both the prediction market and the real market