I would argue that the sole value of prediction markets is to make insider knowledge accessible to the general public, quicker than it normally would.

That’s why these platforms saying things like “we will roll out insider trading” is laughable.

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operatingthetan 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>I would argue that their sole value is to make insider knowledge accessible quicker to the general public.

Is anyone using AI to track these audacious and large bets? Seems like you could actually do this to tell which ones are insider info and which are just stupid random bets?

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OutOfHere 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I would just count which side of the bet has more bets above the median bet size with a zero or near-zero bet history. Insiders are more likely to use throwaway accounts than are non-insiders. Spoofers may however deter such analysis. AI may not strictly be needed for analysis.

	▲	operatingthetan 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I haven't actually used the platforms except looking at betting odds for elections. Do they give any tools for looking at past results and analyzing?

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7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[deleted]

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OutOfHere 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Just because an insider bets on something does not in any way make the bet obvious to onlookers until the event is materialized for all to see. There is absolutely no surfacing of intelligence here because big bets are on both sides, winning and losing.