| ▲ | djtango 12 hours ago |
| Magic or no, ultimately "AI" leads to labour displacement and it's just a continuation of the much broader trend of automation driven by computers. Labour displacement leads to an erosion of standards of living and in a world that ties purpose to work is an existential threat on a very practical level. It was always going to be met with violence once it became more than a curiosity for tinkerers. |
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| ▲ | andai 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| We have, as a civilization, two paths before us: a) Decouple the value of human life from labour. b) Watch as the value of human life rapidly approaches zero. --- Though I'd expand this by adding "technically alive" is not a very good standard to aim for. Ostensibly we're already heading for something like poverty level UBI + living in pod + eating the proverbial bugs. We need a level above that! A great exploration of the pitfalls of "preserve humanity" as a reward function is the video game SOMA. I think you also need "preserve dignity" to make the life actually worth living. (Path `a` is not without its pitfalls: what lack of survival pressure might do to the human culture and genome, I leave as an exercise for the reader! But path `b` I think we already have enough examples of, to know better...) |
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| ▲ | bluefirebrand 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > We have, as a civilization, two paths before us You forgot C: Butlerian Jihad. mass outlaw AI research, AI usage, AI building, AI infrastructure, on penalty of death It may not be a good option but it's there | | |
| ▲ | NeutralCrane 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This will literally never happen so it is not worth considering | | | |
| ▲ | patrick451 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Exactly. At the very least, we should be treating AI like nuclear weapons. It can exist but it should be locked away and never used. |
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| ▲ | Throaway199999 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | When the value of human labour reaches zero the economy will collapse so that will be interesting. | | |
| ▲ | mitthrowaway2 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don't see that as a guaranteed outcome if there's something like UBI to sustain demand, and automation to sustain supply. | | |
| ▲ | Throaway199999 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | UBI is only valuable if money is valuable though...what are you going to trade it for if no one has a job and everyone has access to super powerful production tools like advanced LLMs (which are at the low end of automated tooling overall)? |
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| ▲ | MontyCarloHall 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >Labour displacement leads to an erosion of standards of living The two biggest labor displacements in human history were the agricultural and industrial revolutions, both of which resulted in enormous gains in human living standards. Can you think of a mass labor displacement that resulted in an overall erosion of living standards? I cannot. |
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| ▲ | danans 36 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > Can you think of a mass labor displacement that resulted in an overall erosion of living standards? I cannot. The mass evictions of the Scottish Highlands [1] in which peasants were driven at the point of bayonets to the lowland city slums to make way for the British government to transform Scotland into a mass sheep/wool production monoculture economy. The use of kidnapped Africans as slaves in the Americas was also an example of a labor displacement - by introducing a source of mass human labor with absolutely no human rights - to scale the agricultural commodity economy (cotton, tobacco, sugar), which resulted in horrendous living standards for the enslaved, and an erosion for the poor paid peasants whose labor they replaced. Slavery was a very "efficient" way to use labor. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highland_Clearances | |
| ▲ | PontifexMinimus 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | AI is different. It promises to be able to do everything humans can, but better and more cheaply. When AIs can do every human job cheaper than the subsistence cost of employing a human, humans will be economically obsolete and worthless. Then there's the minor issue of AI deciding to just wipe us out because we're in the way. Taking everything together, AI more powerful than that which currently exists must not be created. This needs to be enforced with an international treaty, nuking data centers in non-compliant states if need be. | | |
| ▲ | MontyCarloHall 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Before the industrial revolution, approximately 90% of people worked in agriculture. In fully industrialized countries, that figure is now <2%. That decrease constituted a nearly full replacement of everything humans were doing, better and more cheaply. While this time might be different, I don't think this is a given. | | |
| ▲ | ccortes 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Maybe it’s not a given, but it is part of the sales pitch for CEOs. A few others have announced layoffs due to AI being better and more efficient than humans. How much truth there is to it we don’t know for sure. But it’s not something to be ignored. | | |
| ▲ | MontyCarloHall 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | CEOs have been saying the exact same thing for the entire history of automation. Take computing, for example, an industry that's always been unusually amenable to automation: — in the 1960/1970s, when compilers came out. "We don't need so many programmers hand-writing assembly anymore." Remember, COBOL (COmmon Business-Oriented Language) and FORTRAN (FORmula TRANslator) were marketed as human-readable languages that would let business professionals/scientists no longer be reliant on dedicated specialist programmers. — in the 1980s/1990s, when higher-level languages came out. "C++ and Java mean we don't need an army of low-level C developers spending most of their effort manually managing memory, and rich standard libraries mean they don't have to continuously reimplement common data structures from scratch." — in the 1990s/2000s, when frameworks came out. "These things are basically plug-and-play, now one full-stack developer can replace a dedicated sysadmin, backend engineer, database engineer, and frontend engineer." While all of these statements are superficially true, the result was that the world produced more software (and developer jobs) than ever, as each level of abstraction freed developers from having to worry about lower-level problems and instead focus on higher-level solutions. Mel's intellect was freed from having to optimize the position of the memory drum [0] to allow him to focus on optimizing the higher-level logic/algorithms of the problem he's solving. As a result, software has become both more complex but also much more capable, and thus much more common. While this time with AI may truly be different, I'm not holding my breath. [0] http://catb.org/jargon/html/story-of-mel.html |
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| ▲ | Ray20 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > AI is different Literally the same thing. > humans will be economically obsolete and worthless Only if we are talking about a socialist system (and they are making pretty small progress in the field of AI). A human's value under a capitalist system is equal to their ability to create goods and services. And AI cannot make this ability smaller in any way. A people's well-being is literally the goods and services created by that people. How can it decrease if the people's ability to produce those goods and services is not hindered in any way? So, when it comes to the entire nation benefiting from AI, the most important thing is to preserve capitalism, and then the free market will distribute all the benefits. The main danger is a descent into socialism, with all these basic incomes, taxation out of production, and other practices that would lead to people being declared economically obsolete and mass executed to optimize their carbon footprint or something. | | |
| ▲ | PontifexMinimus 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | > A human's value under a capitalist system is equal to their ability to create goods and services. And AI cannot make this ability smaller in any way. Yes they can. Your ability to produce goods and services depends on the infrastructure around you. When that's all run by AIs for AIs, humans won't be able to compete. See that land over there producing food you need to eat? It turns out it's more economically efficient to pave it over with data centers etc. Under a US-style capitalist system the rich (i.e. the AIs and AI-run businesses) control politics, the courts, etc, so the decisions the system makes will favour AIs over humans. > So, when it comes to the entire nation benefiting from AI, the most important thing is to preserve capitalism, and then the free market will distribute all the benefits ...to the AI-run companies! > The main danger is a descent into socialism, with all these basic incomes Without UBI most people (or maybe everyone) would starve. | | |
| ▲ | Ray20 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | > depends on the infrastructure around you Yeah, and who is creating those infrastructure? Jesus? This is the same part of goods and services. > When that's all run by AIs for AIs, humans won't be able to compete. So what? The ability to produce goods and services (and therefore general well-being) will not decrease because of that. > It turns out it's more economically efficient to pave it over with data centers etc By the way, a good argument against your position. Agricultural land is very cheap, but the vast majority of people who believe AI will put people out of work and worsen overall well-being are for some reason reluctant to buy this asset, which would see a catastrophic increase in value under such a scenario. So these people are either incapable of analyzing the economic processes, and their predictions are worthless, or they don’t really believe in such a scenario. > will favour AIs over humans Let me repeat: it does not reduce the ability to create goods and services. Under capitalism, this is the only characteristic that determines people's well-being. > ...to the AI-run companies! I think this is a fairly unlikely scenario. But even in this very unlikely case, people's well-being will not be reduced. Simply because of the mechanisms of creating well-being. > Without UBI most people (or maybe everyone) would starve. Economic theory (and 20th-century economic practice) demonstrates the exact opposite. In every country that attempted to effectively implement UBI, it led to a sharp decline in production and mass starvation. Literally every single time. |
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| ▲ | subw00f 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The agricultural and industrial revolutions "weren't labor displacement", they were technological and social changes that happened unevenly and gradually in time and space and which resulted in labor displacement, but they were not the only cause, and they didn't happen BECAUSE of labor displacement. I would argue the subsequent labor displacement caused a minor part of the social gains to be later distributed and realized through class struggle, but that's beside the point. Most wars cause mass labor displacement and military technological advancements that later translate into society as a whole. Are you prepared to argue for wars? If you are American, you are experiencing firsthand the effects of what once was a major part of your industrial labor being absorbed by China. It has led to massive inequality and erosion of standards of living in the US. Not so much for the Chinese working class, which has increasingly improved their standards of living. Are you going to argue for it? I think if we only look at things from a limited perspective, and in this instance a technocratic and teleologic view of history, as in history has a designed finality and this finality will be achieved through unrestrained development of production forces, you are bound to quietly take part in the destruction of society and nature, now viewed as externalities, and accept the worst of atrocities in the name of "advancement", while most of any gains are captured in the short term by a minority. | |
| ▲ | throwaway28469 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
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| ▲ | Razengan 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamplighter |
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| ▲ | georgemcbay 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > in a world that ties purpose to work is an existential threat on a very practical level. I don't disagree that we tie purpose to work and severing that tie will have negative societal consequences, but it is far more impactful that we tie the ability to continue to exist to work (for anyone not lucky enough to already be wealthy). If I suddenly became unemployable tomorrow I'm positive I could find alternate purpose in my life to fill that gap, I already volunteer for various causes and could happily do more of the same to fill in the gaps left by lack of work. What I couldn't do is feed myself, keep myself housed, and get medical care (especially in the US, where this is very directly tied to work). The really big fuckup we are committing as a society in the US (may or may not apply to each person's country individually) isn't just this looming threat of massive labor displacement due to AI, it is that instead of planning for any sort of soft landing we are continually slashing what few social safety nets already exist. We are creating the conditions for desperation that likely will result in increasing violence as outlined in the linked post. |
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| ▲ | ryandrake 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The really big fuckup we are committing as a society in the US (may or may not apply to each person's country individually) isn't just this looming threat of massive labor displacement due to AI, it is that instead of planning for any sort of soft landing we are continually slashing what few social safety nets already exist. Think of the alternative, though: If we planned for a soft landing and implemented safety nets and started transitioning ourselves to a society where people didn't have to work to survive, then a few trillion dollar companies would make slightly less profit every year. We simply cannot allow that. Won't someone think of those trillion dollar companies for a minute? | |
| ▲ | Throaway199999 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | ^^^^ |
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| ▲ | yfw 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| If ai benefitted everyone and not just the billionaires we would be viewing it differently. |
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| ▲ | quantummagic 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's a truism. But it ignores The Iron Law of Oligarchy, Pareto Principle, and dozens more that remind us that power tends towards centralization. It's currently fashionable to call out the billionaires, but if you removed them, they'd just be replaced by corrupt government officials, or something else. That's not to say we should just throw up our hands and accept every social injustice. But IMHO we shouldn't go around simplistically implying that all social ills will be solved by neutering the billionaire class. | | |
| ▲ | singpolyma3 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | More importantly we shouldn't deny the rest of humanity benefits on the basis that the majority of the benefit accrues to the powerful. We should strive to change the distribution pattern, not remove the benefit. | |
| ▲ | theseanz 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | “But IMHO we shouldn't go around simplistically implying that all social ills will be solved by neutering the billionaire class.” You’re right. Instead of implying, we should be taking active steps to do it. | | |
| ▲ | Rury 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Right, giving up is actually how these things end up becoming principles/laws. Power centralizes because people become complacent and ignorant on matters of power, so there ends up being a power vacuum, to which others seize the opportunity. But absolute power centralization almost never occurs, due to the delegation that is necessary to wield that power in practice, and so these two forces end up balancing each other. As such, the equilibrium point (or point of maximum entropy) ends up being some type of oligarchy. But anyone can take steps to address this and adjust this equilibrium point, but it takes active work. |
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| ▲ | pydry 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >we shouldn't go around simplistically implying that all social ills will be solved by neutering the billionaire class. Not to put too fine a point on it but this was basically how the Japanese post war economic miracle was achieved. In this case it was America which ordered the Japanese oligarchy to be stripped of its wealth. We've had decades of propaganda telling us that this is the worst thing we could do for economic growth though so it's natural to doubt. | |
| ▲ | ndsipa_pomu 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The problem with billionaires is that they are able to hoard so much money by exploiting others. We would be much better off if billionaires weren't given so much advantage by Capitalism as those resources would be much more useful if distributed. The biggest problem we currently have with billionaires is that they are now so rich that the world becomes like a game to them and some of them are deliberately pushing us to a dystopia where non-billionaires become functional slaves (c.f. Amazon workers). | |
| ▲ | throwaway613746 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
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