But But But "AI is a bubble!!!!!!"

At what point would bubble-callers admit that they were completely wrong?

baron816 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think you can argue that AI is going to explode and take over the economy, and it’s still a bubble.

I think one possible route is that cloud capacity just becomes totally commoditized and none of the hyperscalers will be able to extract the kinds of profit margins that would allow them to make a good return on their investment (model makers will fall victim to this too). Ultimately, what may happen is that market competition for everything explodes since AI and robots can do all the work, prices for everything (goods, services, assets) collapses, and no one is really any richer than anyone else.

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zozbot234 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Even if the AI frontier becomes "totally commoditized" it will still be reliant on a scarce factor, namely leading-edge chips. Chipmakers will ultimately capture that value, because competing it away would require expanding the industry and that's a very slow process involving billion-dollar expenses planned far in advance (multiple years, and that lead time can only expand further as the required scale gets even larger).

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baron816 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You don’t think open AI models will eventually be able to design and build chips and fabs and all their components?

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kdkl 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Except you're neglecting the fact that LLMs can become more efficient.

The magical thing about software is that efficiency gains can come pretty quickly relative to other industries.

	▲	MarsIronPI 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		We're already seeing this with Qwen 3.5 and Gemma 4. They're better than GPT-3.5 and they run on smartphones and old laptops.

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mrcwinn 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They won’t. They’ll just casually fade away from prior statements. Just like all the software engineers whose first take was that it’s just autocomplete.