Thanks for such a complete answer.

The question I have is - what now then? Because the war is still going on. What event is the Israeli state waiting for now, exactly? Whatever remains of Hamas leadership to say "we give up"? Would that even suffice? Because right now it looks like Israel will just continue killing people in Gaza until they get bored or run out of munitions, or have something else to do(like the war with Iran and other neighbours - which doesn't formally end the hostilities in Gaza anyway, just might ignore them for a bit). If that's the "plan" then yeah, it will continue until everyone there is dead, moved out, or.....I don't know if there is a 3rd option. And at that point it's just a systematic eradication of the entire population, which is precisely what genocide is.

The war in Gaza is over. There are still deaths, but they're the "ordinary" deaths of two countries who hate each other. Hamas is back to chucking rockets over the wall; Israel is back to disproportionate responses.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-s...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Palestinian_rocket_att... (Nobody has created a 2026 article yet.)

At that pace, it can continue indefinitely. They are replacing people and ammunition faster than they're killing/using them.

The war in Iran is supposed to end that, or at least shift it. Without Iranian support, Gaza could collapse.

What happens after that, I cannot even begin to guess. Maybe the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank takes over. They've got an OK-ish relationship with Israel, though Israel keeps testing that relationship with more and more settlements by religious fanatics.

It's at least as likely that Netanyahu loses the election in October, at which point he may be prosecuted. Nobody in Israel is exactly in favor of the Palestinians, but there are at least some who aren't going to actively antagonize them. That will depend on their relationship with the US, which may change in November.