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dang 9 hours ago

[stub for offtopicness]

[All: please don't post unsubstantive comments to HN. You don't have to like $Company or $Person, but when the banned accounts are posting more thoughtfully than the rest, that's... bad.]

9 hours ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
kakflelajf74 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How can I avoid my retirement and index funds being a part of this garbage?

JumpCrisscross 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Don’t buy it. If you don’t have enough money to directly index, don’t waste time trying to pick stocks or time the market.

nutjob2 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Maybe someone will start selling a Nasdaq minus Musk index fund.

CalChris 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is structured so that Musk becomes the first trillionaire.

Detrytus 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, that's probably the only reason for SpaceX going public.

throwaway85825 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Trying to dump on the market before the bubble pops.

throwawaypath 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I netted six figures selling options to doomers like you last year. Please keep this energy up.

outside2344 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not sure why you are being downvoted. This is exactly what is happening and why OpenAI is trying to IPO to dump their garbage as well.

senectus1 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

because its not accurate. they're milking the market. not dumping on the market.

they're only (sic) going for 75 billion. with an evaluation in the trillion mark.

This is just more speculative investment. you'll see this again in another year or so with a bigger evaluation on it... it's how the modern economy now "works".

skeeter2020 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

maybe it's the histrionics? Thse personalities are inevitably inflating their own balloons in order to cash out, but that doesn't mean the reality is these companies are worthless. The downvotes come from comments like "OpenAI is trying to dump their garbage". At best that's a silly thing to say. We can argue "fair market value" but it's not zero.

throwaway85825 11 hours ago | parent [-]

What is the fair market value of an AI company that loses >$10B/year? Of course they have assets that could be stripped and sold for profit but public creditors come last. It's also going to be no where near their private valuation.

12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
Ekaros 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

On one hand I do take some enjoyment of suckers being fleeced. But on other hand I know who this all will benefit so I really can't do that.

As whole I find that valuation just insane, but seemingly if you only offer tiny enough slice with enough hype it might bump prices to something that really make no sense at all...

throwaway85825 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The suckers being fleeced are every pension fund in the world. They're demanding the S&P includes them faster to force ETF owners to buy in before the price tanks.

michaelt 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

God forbid we participants in the stock market evaluate a business before investing in it, or do any sort of work to get the return we're promised.

I, for one, much prefer to earn a 9% return without expending any effort or thought at all.

throwaway85825 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

For most people their talent and expertise does not involve investing. That's why pensions and 401ks exist and why S&P/nasdaq have rules to protect the public.

bryananderson 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You may wish it were not so, you may find it inelegant and infuriating and unfair, but it is a fact that retail investors nearly all underperform the market over a long enough time horizon. Maybe you are built different but for most of us it is very rational to take the market return for “free”.

socialcommenter 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Do understand, though, that market return will struggle to achieve 9% for the coming decades. A 9% annualised return would put the US stock market at 50% of world GDP in 10 years (edit: 20) and something like 90% of world GDP in 30 years (edit: 50 years). Cost of goods, and your customer's money, both have to come out of global GDP too.

(The current value of around 25% of global GDP doesn't even include the 1.75 trillion SpaceX which alone would be another almost 1%...)

ETF expense ratios are small but still mean retail will underperform anyway. It's an unfortunate situation all around.

indoordin0saur 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why are they being fleeced? If people didn't want to buy SpaceX they could buy some other ETF that doesn't include it. If there's enough of a demand I'm sure ETFs will be offered which include all the big indexed stocks except SpaceX.

throwaway85825 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Restructuring every ETF to be S&P but prior rules and no SpaceX would be enormously difficult.

throwaway290 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yes Americans will definitely move their 401k over this /s

Its fleecing because it basically takes everybody's money and gives it to support musk's money loser xai. SpaceX net profit 8 billion per year (previous years much less) and Xai was net losing 1.5 billion per quarter.

skeeter2020 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Unless you literally have nothing, YOU are one of the millions being fleeced. Pensions & retirement funds, any index fund that comes remotely close to technology, any equity you own in a venture in tech, any industry that via very short linkages is connected. Good luck avoiding this.

indoordin0saur 11 hours ago | parent [-]

You only get "fleeced" if the stock crashes. If it's that terrible of a stock then the price will be low. As far as SpaceX goes, I think there are far riskier companies with little prospect of doing well.

lokar 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They are only selling a small % of the shares in the IPO and subsequent weeks.

With a tiny float the price will almost certainly go up as a limited number of enthusiastic investors buy in. The plan is to then line up the lockup expirations so they sell into the index re-balance, a ton of new non-discretionary demand to match the new supply.

It's manipulation.

FireBeyond 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How about xAI? Losing $6B a year and with that whole "Grok, generate me an image of this child with no clothes on" horrorshow?

Sorry, "xAI, a wholly owned subsidiary of SpaceX".

indoordin0saur 10 hours ago | parent [-]

1.) All the image generation models will do that, xAI is just the one that caught flak for it

2.) SpaceX made $16B in profit last year, despite its enormous R&D costs and is on track for $20B this year, despite the losses from AI. People still wise to invest in Google despite their AI business still being a huge loss

FireBeyond 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> 1.) All the image generation models will do that, xAI is just the one that caught flak for it

Perhaps. But that's a huge undersell. "just the one that caught flak"? No. The one with nearly zero guardrails. Where users could trivially create underage porn, bestiality, etc., using prompts that you could put into any other AI and just say "does this image generation prompt seem likely to create legally problematic content?"

No, Captain Free Speech said fuck it, let's roll.

torginus 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Not that I approve of that, but when image generation was hot and new, the insane amount of refusals I got from the major ones for apparently no reason, exacerabated by the general slowness, quotas and inherent trial and error workflow has completely soured me on them.

2OEH8eoCRo0 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Bollocks valuation. There isn't that much demand for space and it's not that profitable.

outside2344 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I hate that I will have to invest in this crap with my retirement index funds

mtharrison 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What's in the SpaceX Files and why aren't they already public?

MisterTea 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Details of alien encounters and abductions, paranormal and psychic phenomena, as well as crypto-zoology and curious human abilities.

reads headline again

Oh. Probably all the money burnt in AI training and data centers.

riffraff 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

the truth social is out there

SunshineTheCat 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That is what I'm talking about, finally someone is asking the real questions.

throwaway85825 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The big numbers are the cost to train a frontier LLM and the GPU cost per hour.

11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
1970-01-01 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Outstanding comment.

4 different levels to unpack: Literal IPO question, Epstein cover-up (gov. won't just do it), aliens (X-Files) cover-up, and finally the Elon-Epstein connection (email files thread to host him at SpaceX).

righthand 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Just more pedophiles and their supporters.

nxm 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Clintons?

righthand 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Clintons aren’t connected to Space X though so that’s a silly answer.

righthand 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What? OP wasn’t trying to make an Epstein files joke?

tastyface 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't know what's in the Spacex files, but I do know that Musk begged and pleaded with Epstein to come party on pedo island.

Maybe something to consider before investing in any of his companies.

11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
charcircuit 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Sensitive financial information. It is normal for companies to file confidentiality to avoid leaking information early.

wavemode 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Parent commenter is making a joke about the fact that, in the title "SpaceX Files to Go Public", the word "Files" could be read as either a noun or a verb.

mtharrison 7 hours ago | parent [-]

:)

rvz 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They are going IPO close to Elon's birthday (26th or 29th June) aren't they? Like they did with Tesla.

But as soon as they IPO, that's a signal to head for the exit before it all collapses again.

indoordin0saur 11 hours ago | parent [-]

TSLA is up 300x from what it IPO'd at

bobsomers 10 hours ago | parent [-]

But it was also flat last year and the financials are atrociously bad. Reality is catching up.

mikkupikku 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

saalweachter 12 hours ago | parent [-]

The five stages of Elon Musk:

  1.  Elon is a genius, a real world Tony Stark.
  2.  How dare you!  You're just jealous!
  3.  Ok, regardless, he's done more to advance EVe and space travel than anyone else alive.
  4.  Oh God, he's going to cripple US development of EVs and rockets, isn't he?
  5.  Eh, Mars was never happening in my lifetime anyway.
deepsun 12 hours ago | parent [-]

I've got plenty of downvotes here on HN for critiquing him on Stage 1, herd mentality is relevant for HN community just as well.

mikkupikku 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you're not getting downvoted at least some of the time on HN you're doing something wrong. I've caught plenty of downvotes myself for arguing that Mars was never going to happen and is just a recruiting tactic for SpaceX to hire idealistic young engineers and pay them sub-market wages because the dream of Mars is part of their compensation.

All the hardware they've actually invested in, including Starship, is in fact foremost for launching satellites into Earth orbit. Starship in particular is optimized for this.

rvz 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Full Self Driving" was also a giant scam. Got heavily downvoted for that as well.

ACCount37 11 hours ago | parent [-]

You should expect to be downvoted for being wrong.

rvz 11 hours ago | parent [-]

It is a scam. "Full Self Driving" isn't even close to Level 3 autonomy or even Level 5.

Tesla got away with this deceptive advertising and scammed [0] their customers believing their vehicles would soon reach full self driving autonomy.

The only ones defending this are likely the ones that still haven't realized that they got scammed by Elon. Sorry that happened to you.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/legal/tesla-must-face-californias-fa...

indoordin0saur 11 hours ago | parent [-]

How is this false opinion so common? I use self-driving regularly it has always worked more or less flawlessly

colejohnson66 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Self-driving is a thing. Full self-driving, commonly known as "level 5 autonomy", has been claimed for over a decade. These claims have been made so many times it has a dedicated Wikipedia page!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

Rohansi 10 hours ago | parent [-]

But those levels are kind of bullshit. If a car is autonomously driving but needs an attentive driver in the seat for legal reasons you're stuck at what, level 2? Even if you never actually need to override/intervene?

Teslas running the latest hardware (manufactured 2023+) and software are actually nearly there, IMO. I used it for two months and never needed to intervene. It's not perfect yet but I believe it actually drives better than most people now.

However, the millions of Teslas on the road with older hardware are absolutely useless in comparison where you will need to intervene a lot. The latest FSD software only works on the latest hardware so these older cars are stuck on either old FSD versions (which are proven to be bad) or get slimmed down versions to fit lower specs (which we know wont be as good). It's unsafe and they really should disable it for all of the older vehicles and issue refunds for people who paid for FSD.

indoordin0saur 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I remember stage 1 being maybe 2011. There were plenty of Musk critics back then, as there are now, but they seemed to have been completely wrong on pretty much everything. I remember people saying he was a charlatan whose technology would never work and even if it did it would never get mainstream market penetration. I feel like you would have smugly chuckled if anyone told you the following things that are true:

1.) Tesla cars will be ubiquitous on American roads

2.) The best selling model of car globally would be a Tesla

3.) Most cars would be made in the US, yet still be price competitive with foreign competition

4.) SpaceX rockets would be re-used multiple times per week

5.) SpaceX's launch business is highly profitable despite lowering prices to less than 10% of what they used to be

6.) SpaceX launches more mass to orbit than the rest of the world combined

darth_avocado 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

1. Tesla has sold ~2.5-3M cars since 2017 in the US. There’s more than 200M cars on the road in the country. Ford has sold more F series trucks in the last 4 years than Teslas have been sold ever.

2. The only reason Model Y is the best selling car in the world is because 3/4 of the sales come from the US and Tesla only sells one model of SUV. Other brands sell many different variants and multiple models in the same category across the world.

3. Teslas are not at all competitive in other markets. BYD is eating their lunch.

4-6. Yes, but the global market for space launches is projected to barely touch $30B by 2030. Global competition for this market is only getting fiercer with multiple US startups, India, China and more recently France.

Now let’s talk about the failures.

1. Nueralink 2. FSD 3. Roadster 4. Cybertruck 5. Hyperloop 6. $2T in Doge cuts 7. Robotaxi 8. Starship 9. Tesla Semi 10. 4680 battery 11. Boring company tunnels 12. Bots that were going to disappear on Twitter

The list is very long when you actually include all the data points.

ai_critic 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Neuralink appears to be working, albeit slowly--as should be expected, because the space is hard.

Cybertruck shipped and is commonly seen all over my city, so "failed" seems to be incorrect.

Starship...works? Again, the space is hard.

The tunnels...are dug?

I'm not a Musk fanboy but you're just making a bad case.

darth_avocado 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If the standard for evaluation is that the tunnels are dug, then I really don’t have anything else to add.

Reason077 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> ”3.) Most cars would be made in the US, yet still be price competitive with foreign competition”

Globally, 50-55% of all Teslas sold are manufactured in China, and a further ~10% in Europe. Only around 35-40% of Teslas are made in the US.

deepsun 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I talked about Musk the person.

Tesla was founded by different guys, Musk just forced them out.

SpaceX is indeed very cool, but not because of Musk. He just put his name on everything that might have been cool, even if dumb (remember Hyperloop? I always wondered on what grounds PR teams associated Hyperloop with Musk, as the idea was very old, and he didn't give it any money -- what relation he even had?)

I've heard from SpaceX insiders that they don't like the guy very much. SpaceXers do cool stuff, and then Mr. Musk comes in and makes everyone believe it's he himself done all that.

Or probably I'm just allergic to narcissism.

gigatexal 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

ugh he's going to be worth > 1T and go on to have even more influence than before. this is so bad for society.

idgaf about the company. sure they proved the space and moved the space forward just like Tesla did with electric cars but why did it have to be Elon?

nickvec 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A space company in the pursuit of profit... what could possibly go wrong.

torginus 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Does this mean that before june SpaceX will do something highly noteworthy, to justify the IPO price?

WarmWash 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Elon will announce roborockets that pick you up and fly you to Mars in under 12 hours while you hypersleep in the ExaShip. Production starts definitely next year.

torginus 8 hours ago | parent [-]

I mean for some reason this was downvoted, and your answer is sarcastic, but my question was genuine. As far as I can tell, SpaceX's business model is doing government contracts, and selling space internet, and they had serious cashflow issues before, I mean building Starship has brought them close to bankruptcy multiple times.

They would need a very good story to sell to investors.

mrlonglong 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If it goes public, does that means Musk won't own any of it? Can we rip it out of his filthy hands?

9 hours ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
nly 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Likely only a shameful % of the company will float.

projektfu 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Expect a Facebook-style stock offering with 90% of the voting power in a special share class not available to retail.