Do they need EUV to make RAM? Doing a small amount of searching leads me to 2025 press releases from companies saying they're first to a new process node, and mentioning EUV like it's an innovation.

I assume they could scale faster with more machines of the older, more understood, lithography technology.

True, but that leads to even less demand for the oversupply of chips

Two possible sources:

1. People who are currently buying AI services realizing it's not all that useful to them and discontinuing their subscriptions. Note that this can come from a changing ecosystem as much as anything to do with the products themselves. I know a couple people running AI propaganda operations where a single person can now do what previously took a major media conglomerate; this is great for them, but if I personally know a couple folks doing this, it indicates that there are probably hundreds of thousands worldwide, and people are simply going to stop trusting anything they read on the Internet.

2. Rising interest rates from the Iran war. Suddenly the cash flows needed to finance all this datacenter and AI model expansion are much higher, and combined with #1, may not be viable.

> Where do you envision the pop will come from?

sudden end of overinvestments in hardware procurements by big players. Its unclear if google for example will sustain 50B/y investments.

With 16 GB VRAM one can run a decent quant (Q4-Q8) of newer, smaller dense models. This leaves room for e.g. 32-256k context size.

This might not be enough to chew through a large code base but for smaller projects it can easily fit enough if not all of the code base to drive a good coding agent.

I don't recommend specific models or model providers due to how much hype and BS there is around benchmarks etc. Easiest is to check the latest generation of open models and look for a dense-type where a decent quant fits within the VRAM.

Some models run fast enough that some of the weights can spill over from VRAM to RAM while maintaining a usable prompt/token gen speed.