Anyone else expect prices to go down after the AI pop?

nerdsniper 17 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, especially if CXMT is able to continue scaling their production and if China is able to crack EUV mass production.

I see RAM prices dropping to new lows in 3-5 years.

	▲	extraduder_ire 15 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Do they need EUV to make RAM? Doing a small amount of searching leads me to 2025 press releases from companies saying they're first to a new process node, and mentioning EUV like it's an innovation. I assume they could scale faster with more machines of the older, more understood, lithography technology.

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vaylian 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes. However, the economy is also bad due to other factors like unnecessary wars. Things can still get worse outside of the AI bubble.

	▲	cousinbryce 15 hours ago \| parent [-]
		True, but that leads to even less demand for the oversupply of chips

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lijok 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Where do you envision the pop will come from?

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nostrademons 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Two possible sources:

1. People who are currently buying AI services realizing it's not all that useful to them and discontinuing their subscriptions. Note that this can come from a changing ecosystem as much as anything to do with the products themselves. I know a couple people running AI propaganda operations where a single person can now do what previously took a major media conglomerate; this is great for them, but if I personally know a couple folks doing this, it indicates that there are probably hundreds of thousands worldwide, and people are simply going to stop trusting anything they read on the Internet.

2. Rising interest rates from the Iran war. Suddenly the cash flows needed to finance all this datacenter and AI model expansion are much higher, and combined with #1, may not be viable.

	▲	pants2 12 hours ago \| parent [-]
		1. Most AI datacenter plans and valuation are not tied to subscriptions, but from a more vague promise of "AGI," so this isn't likely to pop the bubble IMO (even if it does happen) 2. Historical precedent holds that governments are more likely to suppress rates to spur the economy during wartime.

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andriy_koval 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Where do you envision the pop will come from?

sudden end of overinvestments in hardware procurements by big players. Its unclear if google for example will sustain 50B/y investments.

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dyauspitr 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

With how good Claude code and codex are there might not be one.