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skippyboxedhero a day ago

The study you have linked is completely wrong.

There is no international market for gas because export/import is physically complex. This is why gas is priced very differently despite it being chemically similar (unlike oil). Anyone who says anything different should be immediately disregarded as someone who should not have an opinion.

This is technically true for oil but there are two other factors. One, importing oil is environmentally-intensive and relies upon the assumption of free and open trade in oil...hopefully, the last few weeks have demonstrated why this is untrue. Two, the assumption is that mix of imports is not changing, because of high energy costs and reduction in North Sea production, UK refineries are shutting down so we are completely losing domestic capacity across the whole space. We aren't importing oil, we are importing refined products, losing domestic chemicals capacity, losing margin. Lower jobs, lower tax revenues, more reliance on imports.

The above take would be somewhat funny if we weren't ten years into seeing the consequences of this. At this point, we could be back to the stone age and you would have the same people screeching that inventing fire is dangerous (I worked in equity research in the mid-2010s...I remember when Cameron was really pushing hard for this, Clegg was saying how expensive nuclear is, etc. people in the industry were saying this would very badly...the issue is that the political cycle is far shorter than the economic cycle, all of this stuff is obvious but people in the UK run on the political cycle so if it isn't the newspapers, no-one normal reads them, next week then it will never happen...same issue with housing, exactly the same thing happened, we are now subsidising retail electricity which is impossible to get out of, I remember specifically this idea was thought of as an insane impossibility but producers were saying it would have to happen, and giving huge subsidies to producers...this is all obvious, obvious things happening are obvious, producers were fine, they get paid the subsidies but consumers are getting shafted AND consistently voting to get shafted).

Also, Roughs storage facility is in the sea...so I am not sure what "real estate" development was done here (the UK has been building 10-20% of the required growth in housing stock for something like two decades...again, the same people will be screeching about developers if we lived in caves). The reason it was closed was due to economics.

For some reason, you deny that producing more gas would be useful but are outraged at a storage facility closing when the primary function of a storage facility is to allow energy producers to arb derivatives markets effectively. I have no idea how this makes sense to you based on all of the above...perhaps you just want to complain about the Tories? I have no idea.

The current tax rate on North Sea production is 75%, there was ample opportunity for public benefit but multiple governments took that money and spent it on benefits. The reason why Norway has worked is because they incentivized exploration (again, something that you imply later would have no benefit...but okay). The policy of the last fifteen years has been to tax the industry heavily and disincentivize exploration. Revisiting this approach is extremely unpopular amongst all politicians which is why production has dropped. Even with this limitation, we have large gas fields that have been blocked (by the Tories btw) for environmental reasons.

This isn't complicated: if you want more oil and gas, produce it and create more incentives to produce it. The reality is that people want to have their cake and eat it: North Sea production is both very pointless but paying huge amounts of carbon to import from the Middle East is a good idea and we have to pay subsidies of 30-40% electricity bills to subsidies green production...which is also very profitable but requires subsidies because of Tory developers or something.

The UK isn't a serious country. What is happening to the UK is a reflection of phenomenally poor political leadership. It is deserved.

traceroute66 a day ago | parent | next [-]

> paying huge amounts of carbon to import from the Middle East is a good idea

You are wrong here.

UK oil has a very high carbon footprint.

British North Sea oil is sour (high in sulphur). It is the "wrong" type of oil for UK refineries. So it gets sent to other countries around the world for refining.

UK oil is viscous, waxy, crude which needs to be heated to pipe it. This means it takes a lot of energy to pipe (hello carbon footprint !) and it is not compatible with UK refineries anyway, so it has to be moved overseas (hello carbon footprint !!).

UK crude is nothing like Norwegian crude and massively different from the stuff drilled in the Middle East which requires barely any refining in comparison.

hardlianotion a day ago | parent | next [-]

Brent crude is a light, sweet oil. UK oil is extracted from same oilfields as Norways - little difference in quality - and the major extraction from both is Brent crude

A handy explainer on Brent quality is here: https://kimray.com/training/types-crude-oil-heavy-vs-light-s...

traceroute66 a day ago | parent [-]

> Brent crude is a light, sweet oil.

Brent is yesterday's story....

All the oil that would come from the prospective fields if extra drilling were to be permitted would absolutely be the heavy, viscous, waxy stuff.

hardlianotion a day ago | parent [-]

I am going to have to ask you for a source this time.

Gud a day ago | parent | prev [-]

So why not refine it in the UK?

traceroute66 a day ago | parent | next [-]

> So why not refine it in the UK?

I already gave the answer in my original post.... UK crude is the wrong type of oil for UK refineries.

Almost all UK refineries were built back in the day (late 60's/early 70's), before North Sea, when the UK was mostly importing oil from Libya and elsewhere in that region.

All the stuff from Libya and elsewhere is far removed from the viscous, waxy sludge that emerges from the North Sea. It requires a far less intensive refining process.

So if your refinery has been built for a low-intensity process you can't just bolt on the shit-ton of high-energy stuff required for waxy crude.

skippyboxedhero a day ago | parent | next [-]

It isn't the wrong type of crude. Forties pipeline was directly connected to a refinery. That refinery is now shutting down because of high energy costs, high general costs of doing business, and the investment outlook for UK North Sea.

The solution even if this wasn't true is also simple: build more refineries. This is all within our control.

You also said above it takes "energy" to pipe...do you have no understanding of physics? How do you think stuff moves in a pipe. Dear God.

You also said above that Norwegian crude is different...it is not. Brent is a crude blend that includes UK and Norwegian crudes. The chemical differences are relatively small, Norwegian refineries import UK crude (I am using UK crude because, for some reason, you seem to think that is something exists in the real world...it is just Brent).

One of the most confidently wrong posts I have seen on here...and that is after you said that an offshore gas field was given over to real estate development. Lol.

You should consider a career in the Civil Service. You will fit in well.

youngtaff 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Grangemouth has been precarious for years and has received tens of millions in public subsidies

High electricity prices aren’t really a thing for oil refineries as they’re capable of generating their own as Valero Pembroke does

gambiting a day ago | parent | prev [-]

That begs the question why aren't we building refineries that can process our own oil without having to ship it abroad for processing.

traceroute66 a day ago | parent | next [-]

> That begs the question why aren't we building refineries that can process our own oil

Putting aside the legal and "public appetite" aspects that someone else already mentioned, it all comes back to privitisation in the end.

Given that the extraction was privitised, clearly market theory dictates that you cannot then interfere with where the extracted oil goes.

So if a private company is deciding on refining then it will follow the path of most profit, i.e. build/expand vs use existing capacity elsewhere. Given that most oil companies are large multinationals they will likely also prioritise using their own facilities vs paying a third-party refinery.

And clearly at the time, carbon footprint was not on the agenda of the private companies, either directly or enforced via legislation.

WarmWash a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The writing is on the wall that people, especially young people, don't want to be using fossil fuels anymore.

Refineries are expensive (like $10B for country scale) and take years to build.

Which begs the question, how much renewable energy can you get for $10B? And perhaps even faster?

But it's not that clear, because reality has these fractal trade offs and the future is typically pretty opaque. So then will/motivation because an issue too.

lotsofpulp a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Most likely the legal and public relations costs of building it are predicted to be more than shipping it somewhere else and back.

dmix a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I ask the same question about why Canada sends most of it's oil to the US to be refined. The answer is usually the government doesn't allow it and/or no one wants to take a private capital risk in the economic environment.

nl 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> There is no international market for gas because export/import is physically complex

I live in Australia and I assure you there is a huge international market for gas. It's one of Australia's major exports.

Also in Europe the Russian sourcing of gas is a major strategic factor in energy policy.