The writing is on the wall that people, especially young people, don't want to be using fossil fuels anymore.

Refineries are expensive (like $10B for country scale) and take years to build.

Which begs the question, how much renewable energy can you get for $10B? And perhaps even faster?

But it's not that clear, because reality has these fractal trade offs and the future is typically pretty opaque. So then will/motivation because an issue too.