Is it going to be a GFC style crash where I want my assets in currency denominated investments (e.g. bonds) to buy assets at crazy low values or is it going to be mega-inflation where I want my assets in commodities and stocks?

▲

Ekaros 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I am not going to use this strategy but my guess is first the first then the second. Stocks seem to be already on very high levels. Commodities might fare less well as oil is major input. So high prices probably lead to less demand to lower prices or at least combating the cost increases from oil as input.

▲

roryirvine 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If there was a definitive answer to this, don't you think that the markets would already have moved to account for it?

▲

HWR_14 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's entirely possible that there could be an answer for which type of recession to expect but it still might not be priced in. For instance if many people think the recession is going to happen in 2028 and I think it will happen next month, we would have very different investments.

▲

M95D 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

But they did! Look at the gold price.

	▲	OgsyedIE 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Not just the price, the physical volumes. China's central bank has been discounting their bonds beyond what the market can support in order to get more free cash to buy up as much metal as possible as soon as possible, to the point that people are making millions this month just in the arbitrage from buying up everything in the London and Chicago exchanges to give to China.

▲

jjav 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I have no idea, so I have short term bonds, and gold, and commodities, to diversify.

▲

hypeatei 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Just keep in mind that we've had three 20% drawdowns in the past five-ish years that have all recovered. Even if we do have a crash, I don't think it'll last long. But, this war has thrown a wrench into things and I don't think AI spending can carry us through this year, so who knows.

▲

danaris 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Ah, HN.

"There's likely to be a global recession, driving millions of people to destitution and starvation and thousands to death. How can I profit from this?!!!"

	▲	scoofy 11 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Wait, what?!? Nothing about trying to strategically put yourself in an ideal situation during a recession is going to make anyone else worse off. Much of this isn't zero-sum, and assuming the investments are not rent seeking. If I were to invest in potatoes because I thought people might need potatoes, then there should be an incentive to make more potatoes, and if people need potatoes, then more potatoes are likely to exist... which helps people get food. If I instead concern myself with clutching my pearls and tightly as I can, and I don't invest in potatoes, then there is less of an incentive to make more potatoes, fewer people are able to buy the limited supply of potatoes, and everyone is poorer for it.
	▲	hypeatei 11 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I think it's more protecting ones wealth rather than profit. But sure, I guess only people on HN try to do that.