If there was a definitive answer to this, don't you think that the markets would already have moved to account for it?

It's entirely possible that there could be an answer for which type of recession to expect but it still might not be priced in. For instance if many people think the recession is going to happen in 2028 and I think it will happen next month, we would have very different investments.

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M95D 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

But they did! Look at the gold price.

	▲	OgsyedIE 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Not just the price, the physical volumes. China's central bank has been discounting their bonds beyond what the market can support in order to get more free cash to buy up as much metal as possible as soon as possible, to the point that people are making millions this month just in the arbitrage from buying up everything in the London and Chicago exchanges to give to China.