| ▲ | janalsncm 5 hours ago |
| This is from one of the links in the article > Why this is happening. Two forces are slowing agentic commerce, according to Leigh McKenzie, director of online visibility at Semrush: infrastructure and trust. Real-time catalog normalization across tens of millions of SKUs is a decade-scale problem Google already solved with Merchant Center, and consumers still default to checkout flows they trust — Apple Pay, Google Wallet, and Amazon one-click. It turns out when you step outside of “hard tech” problems like building GPT6 there are all of these details others have solved already. E-commerce has been optimized to the last decimal point for the last 30 years. OpenAI is new to it, and if I had to guess, not that interested in getting good at it. |
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| ▲ | petcat 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > not that interested in getting good at it I think they're interested in getting good at it. They just don't want to put in the human time and effort to do so. They expect their many failures and short-comings to be shored up by continuous model training. But that, of course, means that in the meantime it will suck and nobody will use it. |
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| ▲ | darthoctopus 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > don't want to put in the human time and effort to do so In most circles, that is "not that interested in getting good at it". | | |
| ▲ | infamous-oven 27 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It's really hard to be a generalist and better than all the specialists at everything. OpenAI wants to focus on the G in AGI, and optimizing for ecommerce is just not that interesting to them, so of course it can't compete with Walmart. | |
| ▲ | monegator 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | b-b-b--but muh AGI? just two more weeks of training, please | |
| ▲ | no_shadowban_2 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [dead] | |
| ▲ | ImPostingOnHN 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Maybe in yours? Someone can want a thing, even very badly, without wanting to put in the work for it. Conversely, someone can work very hard for something they do not want. The linkage between wanting a thing and wanting to do the work to get it is not absolute, or necessary there at all. | | |
| ▲ | s3r3nity an hour ago | parent [-] | | Did they stop teaching "actions speak louder than words" in schools, or something? | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 20 minutes ago | parent [-] | | "Someone can want a thing, even very badly, without wanting to put in the work for it." Pretty much the impetus behind a lot of theft. Sure, there's thieving because people can't afford food, but that's all theft. There's theft because they are addicts and don't want to sober up long enough to earn money, so they still things. There's others that can't afford something so rather than saving for it, they just take it. |
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| ▲ | conartist6 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Things that are not doing the thing. https://strangestloop.io/essays/things-that-arent-doing-the-... | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think they're operating beyond their current (human) capacity, trying to test out too many things at a time. But a dreamer in me entertains another idea: perhaps they're just holding back, because they realize that actually succeeding at this will instantly kill (or at least mortally wound) e-commerce as we know it. (This is a more narrow version of my belief that general AI tools like LLMs fundamentally don't fit as additions to products, but rather subsume products, and this makes them an existential threat to the software industry. Not to software or computing, just to all the software vendors, whose job is to slice off pieces of computational universe, put them in boxes to prevent interoperability, and give each a name so it's a "product" that can be sold or rented). | | |
| ▲ | latexr 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > But a dreamer in me entertains another idea: perhaps they're just holding back, because they realize that actually succeeding at this will instantly kill (or at least mortally wound) e-commerce as we know it. Sam Altman doesn’t give a shit about anyone but himself and has time and again shown he has no restraint for trampling over others to further his own goals. Why would e-commerce be where he draws the line? | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I don't think there is any line drawn here. I think if they executed well (and by they I mean any one of the three SOTA LLM vendors), they could already mortally wound the entire software industry today. Whether or not they want, or will want, to do it at some point, is unknown; the reasons to not do it now are obvious: 1) it's more profitable to keep renting intelligence per token to everyone, preserving the status quo and milking it indefinitely (i.e. while the models aren't yet good enough to reliably single-shot complex software products from half-baked prompts, because once they get there, disruption will happen organically) 2) trying to compete with ~every other software product today is not likely to succeed in the end; a serious attempt would still burn down the software industry, but the major players don't have the capacity to handle it all at once, and doing it gradually will give enough time for regulatory agencies to try and stop it; either way, no one wins | | |
| ▲ | mrbungie 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | How would they mortally wound the software industry as of today? I find their software to be of subpar quality and resilience anyways. | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | By embracing adversarial interoperability - instead of chasing hundreds of integration deals across industries that put LLMs in products, they focused fully on integrating product access into chat, by combination of business deals, apps/MCPs, and engineer/designer support for users, all directed towards the goal of having the LLM become the "superapp" where work is done, gradually replacing product classes in order of how easy it is. There's lots of easy but drudge work to enable this that needs to be done at the fringes. For example, LLMs today could easily replace most people's smartphone homescreen experience, or travel/commute experience, as the data is there and LLMs have the capability, even prices are acceptable - what's missing is explicit first-party support to wire it up, keep it wired up. One step up, what's missing is accepting this explicitly as a goal: to replace software, to make existing products (whether whole or in pieces) the tools AI uses to do work for you. All the vendors seem to carefully walk around the idea, but avoid engaging with it directly, because once they do, they'll be competing with everyone instead of milking them. | | |
| ▲ | rune-dev 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | They can’t even deliver their own flagship products without bugs, and terrible UX. So I’m doubtful of their abilities. These are also the same companies allowing their AI to make decisions in war, have no qualms about the mental issues they’re causing in people, and have abused workers in 3rd world countries for years. But you think they’re holding out on “destroying the software industry” out of the goodness of their hearts? Come on | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think his reasoning was pretty clearly presented as not the goodness of their heart but rather the medium to long term predicted outcome on their bottom line. Ultimately failing or getting tangled up with regulators any more than necessary is to be avoided. If you move too early and it chases people away from your platform which undermines your ability to keep innovating then a competitor who held back will ultimately eat your lunch. | | |
| ▲ | mrbungie an hour ago | parent [-] | | But then there is no safe way for them to "mortally wound" the software industry. The full argument is moot. I would add there are more reasons why this wouldn't work: costs due to OOM more usage, adoption/AI backlash, adversarial environment, players with big head starts (Google). | | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Yes, I believe the original commenter made that exact point. You don't need to personally win in order to mortally wound someone. It can be informative to speculate about whether or not something is possible regardless of it being strategically advisable in the current context. |
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| ▲ | PaulHoule an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Buying astral to get uv is a wound but not a mortal once because it got forked this weekend. |
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| ▲ | bee_rider an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Why would investors keep paying their OpenAI’s engineers and power company, if they were on an obviously self-destructive trajectory? |
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| ▲ | Hendrikto 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > they're just holding back, because they realize that actually succeeding at this will instantly kill (or at least mortally wound) e-commerce They definitely would if they could. They desperately need money. They already told the whole world they want to replace them, they just can’t. | |
| ▲ | _heimdall 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > This is a more narrow version of my belief that general AI tools like LLMs fundamentally don't fit as additions to products, but rather subsume products That seems reasonable, its just yet to be seen if LLMs are a form of artificial intelligence in any meaningful sense of the word. They're impressive ML for sure, but that is in fact different from AI despite how companies building them have tried to merge the terms together. | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | What I'm saying is not (directly) related to whether or not LLMs are "true AI" or not. It's sufficient that they are fully general problem solvers. A software product (whether bought or rented as a service) is defined by its boundaries - there's a narrow set of specific problems, and specific ways it can be used to solve those problems, and beyond those, it's not capable (or not allowed) to be used for anything else. The specific choices of what, how, and on what terms, are what companies stick a name to to create a "software product", and those same choices also determine how (and how much) money it will make for them. Those boundaries are what LLMs, as general-purpose problem solvers, break naturally, and trying to force-fit them within those limits means removing most of the value they offer. Consider a word processor (like MS Word). It's solving the problem of creating richly-formatted, nice-looking documents. By default it's not going to pick the formatting for you, nor is it going to write your text for you. Now, consider two scenarios of adding LLMs to it: - On the inside: the LLM will be able to write you a poem or rewrite a piece of document. It could be made to also edit formatting, chat with you about the contents, etc. - From the outside: all the above, but also the LLM will be able to write you an itinerary based on information collected from maps/planning tool, airline site, hotel site, a list of personal preferences of your partner, etc. It will be able to edit formatting to match your website and presentation made in the competitor's office tools and projected weather for tomorrow. Most importantly, it will be able to do both of those automatically, just because you set up a recurring daily task of "hey, look at my next week's worth of calendar events and figure out which ones you can do some useful pre-work for me, and then do that". That's the distinction I'm talking about, that's the threat to software industry, and it doesn't take "true AI" - the LLMs as we have today are enough already. It's about generality that allows them to erase the boundaries that define what products are - which (this is the "mortal wound to software industry" part) devalues software products themselves, reducing them to mere tool calls for "software agents", and destroying all the main ways software companies make money today - i.e. setting up and exploiting tactics like captive audience, taking data hostage, bundled offers, UI as the best marketing/upsale platform, etc. (To be clear - personally, I'm in favor of this happening, though I worry about consequences of it happening all at once.) |
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| ▲ | DrewADesign 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Why do you foresee OpenAI’s involvement in the software business mitigating the resistance to interoperability and companies making money through productization? If they were actually interested in solving those problems instead of trying to secure themselves the biggest slice of economic pie, wouldn’t they have been happy about Chinese companies distilling their models? Are they engagement-juicing inn their heavily subsidized service à la Uber because they’re interested in promoting a better future for humanity? I’m skeptical. | |
| ▲ | le-mark 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > but rather subsume products, and this makes them an existential threat to the software industry. The US stock market has priced this in already. Many software only companies are perceived to be under threat by ai. It represents a wonderful arbitrage opportunity for ai skeptics in fact. | |
| ▲ | NicoJuicy 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > perhaps they're just holding back Considering the money they need, they over promise and under deliver. |
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| ▲ | PaulHoule an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's an interesting question. I am behind schedule on developing a "summer phase" [1] for my foxographer costume and was chatting with Gemini about a crash priority "spring phase" [2] and asked it for suggestions and it gave me a 10-pack of results that had one good thing in it at rank #8, a similar query run against a normal search engine actually got something better at #1. Now sure I am talking w/ Gemini with big words like "supergraphic" whereas a normal search would be heavy on 3-letter and 5-letter words used in the product descriptions. It makes think though of expert system based product configurators back in the 1980s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xcon thing is that kind of product configurator is based on an ontology, constraints and rules as opposed to embeddings which might capture the "feel" of things like clothing. [1] Busytown meets Arknights [2] supergraphic shirt + camera gets resonance with my promotional system and people keep approaching me (e.g. laugh but every KPI in the system has an extra zero on the left) |
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| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | rvz 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Also having to wait for ChatGPT for a "thinking" response to search for information that is slower than a Google search loses them lots of money. I believe that it can still work and I won't claim about being unsurprised about this failure. But this is a great opportunity to execute this problem really well if OpenAI and others are not interested in getting good at this. Perplexity also attempted this, got sued by Amazon and it appears semi-abandoned. The only problem is that it must be quicker or just as quick as a Google search, and also compatible with the existing checkout flows. |
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| ▲ | TeMPOraL 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Perplexity also attempted this, got sued by Amazon and it appears semi-abandoned. Any details on that? I feel the answer is more likely there than in "friction". Hardly any purchase of consequence is so sensitive to friction that the difference between Google Search and an LLM response matters (especially that in reality, we're talking 20+ manual searches per one LLM response). I.e. I'm not going to use LLMs advise on some random 0-100$ purchase anyway, and losing #$ on a ##$ purchase due to suboptimal choice is not that big of a deal - but I absolutely am going to consult it (and have it compile tables and verify sources) on a $500+ purchase and for those I can afford spending few more minutes on research (or rather few hours less, compared of doing it the usual way). |
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| ▲ | TitaRusell 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What the hell would AI even bring to the table here? Already your favourite e commerce site has all your data. You can switch on the "buy this automatically" feature. |
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| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | porridgeraisin 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | More targeted ads. Today, ads are based on user information you can reasonably collect from the users historical actions on your website, and then whatever search term they enter. But soon, ads can be based on your current chat context + (derived interests of yours from your entire chat history across all chats. Shhhh.) passed in full to the e-commerce website that will use it to choose ads, generates creatives on the fly, all that crap, hyper-specific to you. I'm so excited. Aren't you? Now, as a side effect, searching through these can become better experience wise as well. They can use all that context and genuinely surface fewer, better results. But that's not the motivation of the e-commerce player anyways. If the ads work they'll be happy. | |
| ▲ | user3939382 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Ssshhh there’s an “VP of AI Transformation” getting paid $600,000 to do this plus the budget. They need their “AI transformation journey” to show to the board. |
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| ▲ | moffkalast 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Shopping research has been pretty funny to me at least, a straightforward way for them to do product placement that people actually want, but implement it so poorly that half of the links it returns are broken. |
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| ▲ | antisthenes 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > E-commerce has been optimized to the last decimal point for the last 30 years. It certainly hasn't been optimized to anything in 1996. In 1996 it was people clumsily scanning print catalogs, spending 5 hours to upload 10 images on dialup and making a simple HTML page (no DB or any kind of backend) and putting their landline phone on it with a message to "call to checkout" I know you were exaggerating for effect, but E-commerce and catalog normalization are definitely not "solved" everywhere. McMaster Carr is a good example of a company that has 90%+ of their stuff ironed out, but most websites and especially small ecommerce isn't like that. |
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| ▲ | ralferoo 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think you're misinterpreting what his comment meant. I read it as meaning that e-commerce has been optimised repeatedly over the 30 years, from a basic start (which as you pointed out was haphazard) to the point where it is now optimised to extract every possible cent from the user, whether by encouraging them to buy with one click (the Amazon one-click patent must be around 20 years old now), time-limited promo spot pricing, sending you e-mails about what you had in the basket if you don't complete a sale, etc... Right now, by comparison, it sounds like AI based shopping is still in the very early stages. Maybe further along than the early e-commerce, but still with a long way to go in its evolution. That'll probably happen quicker than with e-commerce, because a lot of the knowledge about what does or doesn't work has already been learned, but it sounds like it's still a long way behind. Caveat - I've never used it myself, so I don't know how far it is along that path, I'm just basing that from the article. | |
| ▲ | KellyCriterion 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | And quickly after that, we were meassuring traffic data with simple "how-many-requests-were-done" (including images) :-D |
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| ▲ | boringg 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| 30 years? E-commerce hasn't been around that long - try 5 years of optimization MAX. FWIW OpenAI is desperately trying to monetize and they think e-commerce is a "simple" problem to solve. I mean they do need to convert their funnel without alienating their users. I assume they are going to have some big payouts for agentic purchases gone awry or leave merchants on the hook. |
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| ▲ | butlike an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | 30 years ago is 1996. Amazon had been around for 2 years (they were incorporated in 1994). | | |
| ▲ | chasd00 an hour ago | parent [-] | | > 30 years ago is 1996. as an aside, fall of '96 is when i started college. There was an elementary school on my drive to class where I would routinely get caught in drop-off traffic. All those kids i remember crossing the street are at least in their mid 30s now. ...I think i need to lay down and it's not even 9AM my local time. |
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| ▲ | AStrangeMorrow 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I remember having to describe a standard model to predict online shopping behaviors for my ML class exam in university. That was close to 10 years ago now. Also remember a teacher telling us about that story of a company finding a woman was pregnant from her shopping behavior and pushing relevant recommendation. Prompting people around her like her dad or something to find out she was pregnant | |
| ▲ | bigfishrunning an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | So, you're proposing we've been optimizing E-Commerce since...2021? Amazon was founded in 1994. It was not the first site selling things online (but it's the most recognizable one). E-Commerce has been getting attention for a *very* long time [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_e-commerce | |
| ▲ | jazzypants an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is a very confusing comment to me. How were people buying books from Amazon in the 90s if it wasn't e-commerce? |
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