I think you're vastly underestimating the technical illiteracy most people have with computers.

99% of people buy a desktop and don't even consider what the operating system is let alone think about changing it to something else. I would imagine they don't even know that a difference exists between operating systems.

This point stands to be underlined! Even the least possible friction is more than people at large are willing to deal with, it's only if the system changes are pushed from the top (rumblings in the EU block at the mo) that we'll see casual consumption of Linux in more mainstream context. Having run Linux Mint across a 50+ coworker setting from a sysadmin perspective this is entirely doable, most will not even notice as long as Chrome is in place alongside with something office-like.

I try new distros all the time and not a single one of them is 'GUI native' in the sense that you can do everything without touching a terminal. Some weird stuff always happens and you need to do a bunch of research to figure out how to fix it. The settings GUIs never have parity with the config files and it shows.

Do non-tech people even buy computers anymore? I imagine you basically have tech enthusiasts, gamers, and IT at offices buying desktop computers at this point.

I like a lot of things about Windows and would consider myself technically literate. I also like Linux and especially FreeBSD, but Windows has Good Bones. Shame about all the spyware and the shitty modern UI though.

This xkcd is again relevant: https://xkcd.com/2501/

This. While I was in college, I worked for Circuit City doing tech support (the "IQ Crew", heh, later called "firedog". Memories). People would call/come in and I would try to gather information about their setup.

It was extremely common to get Q/A like:

Me: Who is your internet serviced provider?

Them: I just click the 'e'.

Translation: They were telling me they use internet explorer.

Me: OK, bring in your computer and I can look at it.

Them: (arrives some time later, plops their CRT monitor on the table).

It was always like that. It took me a while to figure out how to ask the right questions to get the information I needed from them. TBH, this was most of the job.

KDE is an experience that is not that different in quality from Windows. And if 75% of users used KDE as their desktop instead of Windows, I promise you that the rough edges would be worked out. It has nothing to do with Windows having better UX or quality.

HN in general always does this. I got a lot of push back when I said that in general consumers don't care at all about open source, and the majority of them probably have no clue what it even means.

You can really sense the SF-centric bubble HN lives in.