Remix.run Logo
bogzz 3 days ago

It's a horrifying feeling facing the possibility that the career I spent so much time and money to get into is fading away. Sure, LLMs are not there yet, and they might not ever quite get there. But will companies start hiring again? If productivity has gone up, and it seems like it has, then no.

So, a decade of hanging by a thread, getting by and doubling down on CS, hoping that the job market sees an uptick? Or trying to switch careers?

I went to get a flat tire fixed yesterday and the whole time I was envious of the cheerful guy working on my car. A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. If I had no debt and a little bit saved up I might just content myself with a humble moat like that.

jghn 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> But will companies start hiring again?

Anecdata, but the few people I know who were looking to switch gigs all had multiple offers within a few weeks. One thing they all had in common was taking a very targeted approach with their search and leveraging their networks. Not spamming thousands of resumes into the ether.

jmye 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> leveraging their networks

Just finished a search - agree. The resume process is fundamentally broken, but a strong network makes it irrelevant. Lean on connections - there's a ton of opportunity out there.

amunozo 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm looking for jobs after my PhD and I notice the same things. I only get interviews and advance in processes when I target the right jobs and companies. Sadly, not too much network to leverage.

GeoAtreides 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

so you either are well connected or you starve, got it

guess it's death and destitute for introverts

edit: please explain the downvotes, i'm curious why you think i'm wrong

if what op says it's true, that today only networking works, then it easily follows that if for some reasons you do not have a network then you don't get hired

QuiEgo a day ago | parent | next [-]

fwiw this is how it's always been. You don't have to be some kind of extreme extrovert, but people who are good at what they do tend to enjoy working with other people who are good at what they do, and when they see someone they recognize as "I'd work with this guy again" they put in the minimal effort to stay in contact - a hello text every few months, a cup of coffee every few years, that type of thing. Thats all it takes. If you're not doing that, yeah, you're in for a world of hurt when you go job hunting.

GeoAtreides a day ago | parent [-]

>a hello text every few months, a cup of coffee every few years

sounds like hell to me

amunozo 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Selecting where to apply and who you contact for it is also very important.

lionkor 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm currently involved in the hiring process in our company, selecting engineers for my team. If someone applies who has the programming language we ask for in their CV, they get a first interview. If they can read code, and write VERY basic code, they will get through at least the first 2 rounds without any issues.

If people put down the AI, and actually learn how to write a `for` loop, they would be more hire-able than 50% of candidates.

> "Guess it's death [...] for introverts"

There is a meritocracy somewhere in our capitalist system. Not everyone participates, but it exists.

GeoAtreides 3 days ago | parent [-]

OP was saying the only way to get hired is through work connections

of course if the process doesn't involve networking then we don't have a problem, we agree on that

jghn 3 days ago | parent [-]

> OP was saying the only way to get hired is through work connections

That is not at all what I said. Please do not misrepresent.

I said they took a targeted approach *and* exercised their networks. Those are two separate things.

GeoAtreides 3 days ago | parent [-]

> One thing they all had in common was taking a very targeted approach with their search and leveraging their networks

Right, so they applied to a couple of jobs and it worked for them?

I'm sorry, do you understand how uncommon and rare that is? sure, if their domain was REALLY niche and the jobs weren't publicly advertised, then i could see how that would work. but the experience is VASTLY different outside such niche cases

jghn 3 days ago | parent [-]

They applied to a couple of jobs where they were certain the fit would be good, and didn't mindlessly spam their resume to some bot. They got in touch with the right people, and worked it out from there. Because they had done their homework, the path was easier for them.

GeoAtreides 3 days ago | parent [-]

yes, that's exactly what you said before. you're not engaging with what i'm saying at all.

bogzz 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Seems like that is the case, yes.

bigstrat2003 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Bro I'm an introvert and I have work connections. It isn't hard.

GeoAtreides 3 days ago | parent [-]

> I have work connections.

> It isn't hard.

you're not an introvert then

jghn 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Anyone who has been in the industry for several years or more should have people they can reach out to. That’s not being well connected.

This is really just a reversion to how things used to work, relying on human connections. People seemed to manage to get jobs 30 years ago just fine

tavavex 3 days ago | parent [-]

What if you weren't in the industry for several years or more? New grads are completely walled off from the industry because very few employers are willing to give them a shot anymore, even at minimum wage and no other demands from this most desperate worker segment. The few connections I scraped together weren't helpful because barely anyone is hiring juniors anymore. Having one of the resumes on top of someone's pile is only helpful if they ever get to using it. If you're at the lower end of the market, you have to be very exceptional or very lucky. Otherwise, you're done for.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There is infinite amount of software to be made. Desires and wants never get satisfied. There will simply be more software, more features, more supported platforms, more bug checks, more tests, more CI/CD, more docs, more websites, more services, more more more. Once we solve something, we have a million new desires that we want to solve. There will be plenty of work in software, up until the time when really all knowledge work can be replaced. At that point all bets are off.

tavavex 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Do you think all software demands are completely elastic? I don't share your confidence, it feels like it's applying the desired conclusion to the premise. For sure, newer technology prompts new solutions and new tools to use with it, but some industries are much less flexible than others. If your business serves a certain number of clients - for example, companies that work in a specific industry that's growth-constrained - then making software twice as easy to make isn't going to double the number of their clients. That business you work for will either have to look at expanding into a different market, or, more realistically, lay off all the unneeded workers. There's a lot of businesses that work like that. What are they going to grow into?

bonoboTP 2 days ago | parent [-]

Competing software companies will offer more and more advanced software that handles more use cases, faster, better, with more features, with more compatibility, with more flexibility, with more integrations, with more ease of use, with more etc etc. They will propose software solutions for things that are currently not economical to provide. And other competing software companies will have to match that or do even more.

thejokeisonme 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm also being on Jevon's paradox in the case of software.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

yunwal 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work.

There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away. Further standardization of tires or wage increases would probably do the trick.

There’s still plenty of software to be created. You’ll probably have to learn some ML tricks or whatever, but there’s nothing going away, just changing as software has always done.

reaperducer 3 days ago | parent [-]

There’s really not much stopping changing tires from being automated away.

Sounds like you've never changed a tire. Or at least not outside of a very controlled environment.

eks391 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

I wouldn't be so sure. I have been impressed by several things that seem to be complex but a way to be automated was found. Sure a no controlled environment is not conducive to automation, but who said a tow truck wouldn't be a part of the process? Washing a car has been automated with the precursor that the car is brought to the controlled environment first.

I have even replaced car tires before and yet still have this opinion.

fragmede 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://www.pitproauto.com/ is working on that!

tayo42 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Are most cars not just undoing the lock, the bolts, switching the tire and redoing the bolts and locks?

How are these put on in the first place on an assembly line?

sharkjacobs 3 days ago | parent [-]

This is the funniest possible answer to "Sounds like you've never changed a tire. Or at least not outside of a very controlled environment."

"Oh, you think I've never changed a tire? Well here is my abstract high level understanding of the steps to changing a tire! And have you considered the quintessential controlled environment for putting tires onto cars?"

tayo42 3 days ago | parent [-]

We all change tires with a jack and a spare? It's like a simple skill? I don't get the point your making then?

nogridbag 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

The tire is the black rubber that's mounted to the wheel. Tire shops don't give you a new wheel when you get a flat tire.

thankyoufriend 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The "edge cases" make a simple task like this more difficult. What if the nuts are stripped? What if the terrain under/around the car is uneven or not solid ground? What if it's raining or snowing or hailing? What if the driver of the car is irrationally upset and kicks your tire-changing robot over? What if a tire change was requested, but it's clear (to a human) that there is more work that needs to be done?

eks391 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Every new successful tool doesn't start by trying to meet every need or edge case. They perfect the main case, and then edge cases in priority of likelihood.

Car washes are automated even though they haven't answered the edge cases of how to wash your car when your car is rolled on its side or a terrorist is actively blowing up the equipment. They simply only operate when your car is right side up (and other conditions, like in neutral, wipers off, and a driver who is willing to not exit the vehicle) and when there aren't active bombings on the building. And other "edge" cases.

Just because there is a possibility for something to not work, doesn't make it useless. Automated tire replacements could start with very rigid cases where they are applicable, and expact the scope slowly to allow more cases, like a bent wheel or poor weather.

yunwal 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Then you see a mechanic for the 5% of cases where it's weird? If you think AI is replacing 100% of software engineers anytime soon, idk what to tell you.

samiv 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I cannot but agree. It's a massive skill leveling where software development is transforming from high skilled coding to low skilled prompting.

For an old dog like myself it feels an unjust rug pull.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others.

I know many jobs are about giving partial access to secrets or insider knowledge etc but I simply can't see myself accepting that this is my value proposition.

No, let the pie grow. Let more people be able to do more things. Use the new capabilities to do even more. See how you can provide genuine value in the new environment. I know it isn't easy. There are many unknowns. But at least aspirationally I see that as the only positive way forward.

The same thing has happened to many jobs. 100 years ago being a photographer was a difficult skill. They must have felt a rug pull when compact cameras became mainstream and they were no longer called to take all family pictures. Surely the codex writers felt a rug pull when printing became widespread. Typesetters when people could use word processors on their PC with font settings. Prop designers and practical effects people when movies switched to vfx. Etc etc.

jwolfe 3 days ago | parent [-]

> I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others.

That's an incredibly uncharitable reading of the parent comment. At no point in history prior to maybe this year could you argue that working in software was gatekeeping, toll extracting, or rent seeking. Being a highly skilled craftsperson creating software for those who can't or don't want to is a very psychologically positive self identification. Lamenting that the industry is moving away from highly skilled craftspeople is also perfectly valid, even if you believe that it is somehow good for society, which is yet to become clear.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent [-]

They complained about the skill leveling where now lower skilled people can also do what needed higher skill before. You toiled to learn the craft, now there is a fast track to those results. That's what the rug pull is.

Yes, producing software was value. (It of course still is as of today, we are talking about what may be coming). My plead is to continue searching for ways to contribute value. Don't resign to a feeling that the only way to hold on is if you try to stop others from knowing about or being able to use the skill leveling tech. This makes one bitter and negative. Embrace it, aspire to be happy about it.

Its like getting scooped in science. In research, I always try to reframe it to be happy that science has progressed. Let me try to learn from it and pivot my research to some area where I can contribute something. Sulking about having been scooped does not lead to positive change and devalues ones own self-image.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

The problem is that we don't live in a society where the benefits of new technology benefit all.

We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

You might feel great about when things become cheaper but remember that when things are cheap it's only because costs are low and when costs are low the revenues are low and when revenues are low salaries are low too. Keep in mind that one party's cost is other party's revenue.

The economy is ultimately one large circle where the money needs to go around. You might think of yourself a winner as long as someone else's salary drops to zero and you still get to keep your income but eventually it will be you whose income will also be disrupted.

Just something to keep in mind.

And also we're going to just not rug pull on the individual knowledge workers but businesses too. Any software company with a software product will quickly find themselves in a situation where their software is worth zero.

Also this comment about gatekeeping is absolutely stupid. It's like saying trained doctors and medical schools are gatekeeping people from doctoring. It would be so much better if anyone could just doctor away, maybe with some tool assistance. So much fantastically better and cheaper? Right! Just lay off those expensive doctors and hire doctor-prompters for a fraction of the price.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

to tie back to the actually article, if you believe a rug pull is imminent then you got to get off the rug. Idk, you have to make a decision because we're certainly at a fork in the road. There's no guarantee waiting will result in a better outcome nor one saying it will be a worse outcome. There's going to be winners and losers always and lot of it is really just luck in timing. I guess, in reality, the careers we've built come down to a flip of a coin; stay on the rug, get off the rug.

/i'm thinking of buying a welding truck and getting in to that, then hire a welder and rinse repeat until i have a welding business. There's plenty of pipe fence in my neck of the woods and i see "welder wanted" all over the place so there's opportuntiy too.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Good luck to you and your welding business. Personally I'm getting to a point where I'm just "too old" (and grumpy) to start over, so I guess for me it's going to be a retirement to some LOCO that I can afford.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You can make a living, if: you have a way to modify your behavior in a way such that it compels another human being to reciprocate and modify their behavior in a way that you find beneficial for your life. All of money and economics in the end boils down to this. If you no longer have any kind of behavior that your neighbors and community see as valuable enough to modify their behavior to benefit you and keep you around, then we will be in trouble.

polothesecond 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

It will put and end to the middle class entirely, but that’s the intent.

The reality is a lot of people who were formerly middle or upper middle class, and even some lower class populations will face steep, irreversible “status adjustment”.

I’m not talking about “we used to be able to take vacations and now we can’t”. I’m talking about “we used to be highly paid professionals now we’re viciously competing for low paid day labor (gig work) to hopefully be able to afford the cheap cuts this week”.

bluefirebrand 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm too old to be competing for day labour jobs, but not old enough or rich enough to retire

So I'm extremely bitter about this potential direction

themacguffinman 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I doubt software development will stay as "low skilled prompting", or that it is even low skilled prompting right now. Productive LLM usage goes beyond typing in better prompts and involves things like improving guardrails (eg type definitions and tests), context (docs and "skills" and MCP servers), and management strategy (instructing specialized agents together). It seems natural that there will be high skill AI coding to differentiate engineers, at least until superintelligent AGI emerges and kills us all.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Oh I cannot agree with this at all.

If you think any programming task at hand one must have at least some reasonable grasp of formalism, boolean logic, predicate logic, then understanding the software developing concepts, your APIs frameworks, language constructs etc and finally the domain knowledge.Most of this goes away when changing from coding to prompting.

I was just doing some computer graphics work myself doing Signed Distance Fields and Claude just literally regurgitated code that I could just adopt (since it works) without understanding any of the math involved.

I'd say that prompting is at least two orders of magnitude easier than coding.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think looking at what the web did to the journalism industry as a model to what's happening to the software dev industry is worth while. Journalism didn't go away but it did completely change. Many old school journalists just couldn't adapt and left the industry, many papers died too.

samiv 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Many things only have value because of scarcity.

Digital products such as "photoshop" have had value because people need a tool like that and there's only a limited number of competition, i.e. scarcity. The scarcity exists because of the cost. I.e. the cost of creating "photoshop"creates limit for how many "photoshops" exist. When you bring down the cost you'll have more "photoshops" when you have more "photoshops" as the volume increases the value decreases. Imagine if you can just tell claude "write me photoshop", go take a dump and come back 30 mins later to a running photoshop. You wouldn't now pay 200USD for a license, now would you? You'd pay 0USD.

If you now create a tool that can (or promises it) can obliterate the costs, it means essentially anyone can produce "photoshop". And when anyone can do it it will be done over and over and at which point they're worth zero and you can't give them away.

The same thing has happened to media publishing, print media -> web, computer games etc.

Then the problem is that when your product is worth zero you can no longer make a business by creating your product, so in order to survive you must look into alternative revenue streams such as ads, data mining etc. None of which are a benefit to to the product itself.

bluefirebrand 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

And what is left of journalism of low effort high volume clickbait garbage

Boy I can't wait for the equivalent of low effort high volume clickbait to take over software. Yay!

tofuahdude 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why unjust? Who promised you that the way software is made will stay static?

Our software industry has specialized, for decades, in "rug pulling" / changing / "disrupting" other industries on a massive scale.

I find it pretty ironic when engineers make these statements in that context.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Whether you like it or not but the society is built on certain social constructs and agreements.

Do you think it's fair that when the society moves underneath, the capitalistic system moves its tectonic plates it's the individual who has to bear the cost of that?

Abd let's be clear only software devs are just sucking it up. You think lawyers and doctors would allow themselves to be laid off en masse and be replaced with trainees who just prompt the computer?

Also what will happen when high wage earners start loosing their discretionary income. The whole service sector for starters will be shaken.

Just imagine some big tech company laying off 10k engineers. Making 0.3m per year. That's 3b dollars that disappear from the incomes and thus from the economy and just stays in the pockets of the capital holders.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent [-]

i made this point a few comments up but i think what's happening to the software dev industry is what happened to the journalism industry when the web really came into its own and everyone was now a journalist. There were even books written by tech people about how great "creative destruction" is heh now the shoe is on the other foot. How many "old dinosaurs" did web development and software dev in general put out of business? My neck is on the line too but even i have to chuckle at that a little bit.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

yep you're absolutely right. the value in journalism and journalistic output was based on the scarcity, i.e. the cost of publishing reduced the amount of available content. With web the costs were obliterated so the content exploded and the value of any individual piece dropped to essentially zero. When it's worth zero your revenues are zero and zero revenues you can't really pay for any journalism.

So then you have no choice but to seek alternative revenue streams (ads, data mining) and in fact this becomes the thing, since the original thing no longer produces a revenue.

jryle70 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm not seeing you calling it unjust that journalism has been disrupted. Why do you think software development is different?

draftsman 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software. I have used Opus 4.6 on a number of projects, and it still spits out buggy, and sometimes, flat out broken code. I was actually surprised when it completely hallucinated the names of query params for an HTTP request in my code, when in the prompt I had explicitly given it the exact names it needed to use. I thought these frontier models were supposed to be game changing.

thienannguyencv 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

The query parameter issue is a pattern I see a lot. The model has thousands of examples of "how HTTP requests usually look" from its training process. When your input data conflicts with the pattern, the training data takes precedence.

Interestingly, the model doesn't "know" that it's ignoring you. From its perspective, it has retrieved a "meaningful" pattern—virtual parameter names that probably fit common conventions it saw during training. Your actual request simply... wasn't documented.

js8 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software.

So? Demand the source code. Run your own AI to review the quality of the code base. The contracting company doesn't want to do it? Fine, find one that will.

daveguy 3 days ago | parent [-]

Add another layer of jank to review the original jank? That doesn't sound like a very helpful solution. But the companies selling AI will love it!

js8 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Technical Supervision of the Investor is a thing, for a reason. The fact that IT industry doesn't have it is ridiculous.

draftsman a day ago | parent | prev [-]

And more importantly, think of the funding we’ll get

miah_ 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I've worked in tech since the late 90's and recently became an apprentice potter. My work in pottery is so much more fulfilling than any tech work I've done. I wish I had started sooner.

I'm still working in tech, and likely will forever in a much reduced capacity. But pottery is my life now.

Semiapies 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm maybe less pessimistic, but I expect in the next decade or two, I'm going to spend a lot of time fixing apps that people who were moderately technical vibe-coded years before. They seemed to work well enough until they didn't, and at some point, they became central to the business.

MS Access and so many more "you won't need a programmer again" dev tools over the decades blazed the trail.

tavavex 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> A flat tire is a flat tire, no matter whether a recession is going on or whether LLMs are causing chaos in white collar work. If I had no debt and a little bit saved up I might just content myself with a humble moat like that.

Bad idea. Automotive repair is barely a moat, because you don't need that much training to work those jobs. There's a lot of people who want to do it. And cars are definitely susceptible to recessions - if fewer people are buying cars, if there's a shift to transit, if your locality builds more pedestrian-friendly infrastructure, if businesses that use work vehicles are forced to close, then your demand drops and everyone already in the field is forced to compete with one another.

For moats, look for things that are complex (not everyone can do it), licensed and always needed.

BasilofBasiley 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

>Automotive repair is barely a moat, because you don't need that much training to work those jobs.

You need to study for 3 years to be a car mechanic. And even then you'll need baby sitting for a while in the auto-shop because no one trusts the new guy fresh out of school, with good reason.

>There's a lot of people who want to do it.

No there isn't. What do you mean by lot of people? Automotive repair is a blue collar job with intense physical strain, you're exposed to chemicals you shouldn't be, there will be hearing loss involved no matter how much protection you have and it doesn't even pay all that well, considering the risks involved and the amount of training you need. And no, it's not because the market is saturated with car mechanics, it's because auto repair shops have a lot of pressure to be cheap. Job listings are full of car mechanic openings, you'll never be unemployed.

All the "if's" presented are solved by relocation and not even that much of it, except for this:

>if fewer people are buying cars

Then the skills are easily transferable to other vehicles. But less people are buying cars already, they use uber, which involves a car. A car that needs 10x more repair time than the car you drive daily.

So yeah, auto repair is a good moat. It's complex, not everyone can do it, it's not licensed in most cases (unless you work for a brand or a niche) but there's reputation involved and it's always needed. It just doesn't pay all that well, specially not compared to what I see on HN's monthly whoshiring.

QuiEgo a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Electricians are on a rip right now with all the data center build outs and will likely always be in demand.

bethekidyouwant 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You must be joking that being a car mechanic is anything like it was 20 years ago.

slfnflctd 3 days ago | parent [-]

The vast majority of tires that need to be repaired or replaced (and the processes to do so) haven't changed much if at all, though. And there are entire franchises that pretty much only do tires. Same with many other manual labor tasks.

These are predictable jobs with very few variables that there is still no sign of automation replacing any time soon. They often don't suck as bad as people think. One of the most enjoyable jobs I had was on an assembly line, because my mind was mostly free to wander. It was almost like meditation.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent [-]

Hm, why don't you just go do it then? Seems strange to spread this knowledge and create competition for yourself.

Theres a reason most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college instead of to such manual jobs.

slfnflctd 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college

Part of the reason for my prior comment is the clear fact that a not-insignificant percentage of white collar jobs are being massively devalued at the moment, which means many people who thought they'd be able to send their kids to college with income from such jobs won't.

Considering that the field of robotics is so far behind LLMs in terms of clear value outside of niche industrial applications, I think manual labor is about due for a resurgence. There may be some major rebalancing happening. The big question for laborers will be - as it has always been - what can I do that sucks the least but also allows me to pay for a decent life? Answers will vary.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent [-]

I'm not sure how long this state of robotics will last. Dexterity is improving very fast. Robots are getting cheaper and cheaper.

But also, a lot of the manual labor is quite expensive and only affordable as long as there are white collar workers who can pay for fancy bathroom remodelings and landscaping and so on. I don't know how a big deluge of reskilled pipefitters and HVAC technicians will be able to find work. Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other?

briHass 3 days ago | parent [-]

This is the point missed by many. The trades are in high demand, right now, because of a labor shortage and demand from upper-middle class individuals without any DIY skills. A generation or two of pushing kids into college, and an almost disparaging view of 'getting your hands dirty' has built this perfect storm.

However, besides a few trades that use unions/licensure/apprenticeship as an artificial supply limit, most trades are only limited by a willingness to do the work. A few decades ago, trade work was much less expensive, because supply was higher and many did their own DIY, which limited what prices the market would tolerate.

bogzz 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Money.

amunozo 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Green is always greener on the other side. You can always work on that, get an apprenticeship and work on it. Why don't you do it? Because you know not everything's so rosy. These are hard jobs, not super well paid.

But well, I feel like you too.

cyber_kinetist 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I think the bigger issue is not that LLMs are taking away developer jobs, but the current geopolitical crisis (the collapse of the US empire and the end of the neoliberal era) is leading towards an imminent economic catastrophe, and that would be enough to pop not only the AI bubble, but an even bigger "IT bubble" that has been proliferating since the 90s.

Programmers (and other white collar jobs) were able to luxuriously coast along the ZIRP era because capital (replenished twice via quantitative easing) was cheap and plentiful, and because the elites at the top had to pump huge amounts money to create a shared fantasy of the "technological future" that validates the neoliberal era. Now that the reality of the actual "physical economy" (the economy of making tangible things) has clawed back at us because of that forbidden three-letter word (war), we all realize that doubling and tripling oil prices were actually dictating our lives rather than some "Skynet AI" crap, and thus our fantasy simulacra of "virtual" play-things have now come to an end. Oh and we all found out that most of SaaS was actually bullshit anyway. In fact, if it could be completely replaced by AI then it was already pretty bullshit in the first place.

So, for smart STEM people uninterested in programming and only looking for a stable career, I think they would be better off by just doing engineering work that's a bit more tangible, like robotics, manufacturing, shipbuilding, construction, etc. (Or anything related to war, but only if you're able to stomach what you're doing.) If you don't like to sit all day for a salary, then niche blue collar work can also be a good option, since general-purpose robotics (Physical AI?) is still too far away because of many, many issues that's just too long to explain here. I still think if you like programming then you should stick to it in the long run - there will be a very cold winter because of the combination of LLMs, AI bubble pop, and general economic depression, but for those who survive this era there will be an opportunity because of the shortage of skilled programmers (since no-one bothered to hire juniors after the pop, no one will grow to become seniors themselves!) Computing will still be with us forever, just not in a way that investors thought that it's going to "engulf the world".

drstewart 3 days ago | parent [-]

I would say if all of your doomastrophizing comes to light (the myriad of collapses and depressions and winters in your post), then there is no opportunity for anyone anywhere, and we should all stock up on bullets and cigarettes while we can.

But something tells me you won't do that.

cyber_kinetist 3 days ago | parent [-]

Yup, absolutely! People before us already lived through the Great Depression, people already lived through two World Wars, and despite all that there were still some technological advancements made and some good opportunities amongst the chaos! There's obviously going to be pains from transitioning into a new world order, but humanity will still keep on living. Just don't expect the next world to be the same as before!

I think it's important to know and practice your passion, even if you have to work on something different to pay the bills. You can only be good at something if you really like it, and you never know what opportunity you'll stumble onto if you're ready for it.