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samiv 3 days ago

I cannot but agree. It's a massive skill leveling where software development is transforming from high skilled coding to low skilled prompting.

For an old dog like myself it feels an unjust rug pull.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others.

I know many jobs are about giving partial access to secrets or insider knowledge etc but I simply can't see myself accepting that this is my value proposition.

No, let the pie grow. Let more people be able to do more things. Use the new capabilities to do even more. See how you can provide genuine value in the new environment. I know it isn't easy. There are many unknowns. But at least aspirationally I see that as the only positive way forward.

The same thing has happened to many jobs. 100 years ago being a photographer was a difficult skill. They must have felt a rug pull when compact cameras became mainstream and they were no longer called to take all family pictures. Surely the codex writers felt a rug pull when printing became widespread. Typesetters when people could use word processors on their PC with font settings. Prop designers and practical effects people when movies switched to vfx. Etc etc.

jwolfe 3 days ago | parent [-]

> I don't think it's a psychologically positive self identification to see yourself merely as a gatekeeper and toll extractor rent seeker who only makes a living by withholding agency and skill from others.

That's an incredibly uncharitable reading of the parent comment. At no point in history prior to maybe this year could you argue that working in software was gatekeeping, toll extracting, or rent seeking. Being a highly skilled craftsperson creating software for those who can't or don't want to is a very psychologically positive self identification. Lamenting that the industry is moving away from highly skilled craftspeople is also perfectly valid, even if you believe that it is somehow good for society, which is yet to become clear.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent [-]

They complained about the skill leveling where now lower skilled people can also do what needed higher skill before. You toiled to learn the craft, now there is a fast track to those results. That's what the rug pull is.

Yes, producing software was value. (It of course still is as of today, we are talking about what may be coming). My plead is to continue searching for ways to contribute value. Don't resign to a feeling that the only way to hold on is if you try to stop others from knowing about or being able to use the skill leveling tech. This makes one bitter and negative. Embrace it, aspire to be happy about it.

Its like getting scooped in science. In research, I always try to reframe it to be happy that science has progressed. Let me try to learn from it and pivot my research to some area where I can contribute something. Sulking about having been scooped does not lead to positive change and devalues ones own self-image.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

The problem is that we don't live in a society where the benefits of new technology benefit all.

We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

You might feel great about when things become cheaper but remember that when things are cheap it's only because costs are low and when costs are low the revenues are low and when revenues are low salaries are low too. Keep in mind that one party's cost is other party's revenue.

The economy is ultimately one large circle where the money needs to go around. You might think of yourself a winner as long as someone else's salary drops to zero and you still get to keep your income but eventually it will be you whose income will also be disrupted.

Just something to keep in mind.

And also we're going to just not rug pull on the individual knowledge workers but businesses too. Any software company with a software product will quickly find themselves in a situation where their software is worth zero.

Also this comment about gatekeeping is absolutely stupid. It's like saying trained doctors and medical schools are gatekeeping people from doctoring. It would be so much better if anyone could just doctor away, maybe with some tool assistance. So much fantastically better and cheaper? Right! Just lay off those expensive doctors and hire doctor-prompters for a fraction of the price.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

> We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

to tie back to the actually article, if you believe a rug pull is imminent then you got to get off the rug. Idk, you have to make a decision because we're certainly at a fork in the road. There's no guarantee waiting will result in a better outcome nor one saying it will be a worse outcome. There's going to be winners and losers always and lot of it is really just luck in timing. I guess, in reality, the careers we've built come down to a flip of a coin; stay on the rug, get off the rug.

/i'm thinking of buying a welding truck and getting in to that, then hire a welder and rinse repeat until i have a welding business. There's plenty of pipe fence in my neck of the woods and i see "welder wanted" all over the place so there's opportuntiy too.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Good luck to you and your welding business. Personally I'm getting to a point where I'm just "too old" (and grumpy) to start over, so I guess for me it's going to be a retirement to some LOCO that I can afford.

bonoboTP 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You can make a living, if: you have a way to modify your behavior in a way such that it compels another human being to reciprocate and modify their behavior in a way that you find beneficial for your life. All of money and economics in the end boils down to this. If you no longer have any kind of behavior that your neighbors and community see as valuable enough to modify their behavior to benefit you and keep you around, then we will be in trouble.

polothesecond 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> We're about to pull the rug underneath all knowledge workers. This will disrupt wage earners lives. This will disrupt the economy.

It will put and end to the middle class entirely, but that’s the intent.

The reality is a lot of people who were formerly middle or upper middle class, and even some lower class populations will face steep, irreversible “status adjustment”.

I’m not talking about “we used to be able to take vacations and now we can’t”. I’m talking about “we used to be highly paid professionals now we’re viciously competing for low paid day labor (gig work) to hopefully be able to afford the cheap cuts this week”.

bluefirebrand 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm too old to be competing for day labour jobs, but not old enough or rich enough to retire

So I'm extremely bitter about this potential direction

themacguffinman 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I doubt software development will stay as "low skilled prompting", or that it is even low skilled prompting right now. Productive LLM usage goes beyond typing in better prompts and involves things like improving guardrails (eg type definitions and tests), context (docs and "skills" and MCP servers), and management strategy (instructing specialized agents together). It seems natural that there will be high skill AI coding to differentiate engineers, at least until superintelligent AGI emerges and kills us all.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Oh I cannot agree with this at all.

If you think any programming task at hand one must have at least some reasonable grasp of formalism, boolean logic, predicate logic, then understanding the software developing concepts, your APIs frameworks, language constructs etc and finally the domain knowledge.Most of this goes away when changing from coding to prompting.

I was just doing some computer graphics work myself doing Signed Distance Fields and Claude just literally regurgitated code that I could just adopt (since it works) without understanding any of the math involved.

I'd say that prompting is at least two orders of magnitude easier than coding.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think looking at what the web did to the journalism industry as a model to what's happening to the software dev industry is worth while. Journalism didn't go away but it did completely change. Many old school journalists just couldn't adapt and left the industry, many papers died too.

samiv 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Many things only have value because of scarcity.

Digital products such as "photoshop" have had value because people need a tool like that and there's only a limited number of competition, i.e. scarcity. The scarcity exists because of the cost. I.e. the cost of creating "photoshop"creates limit for how many "photoshops" exist. When you bring down the cost you'll have more "photoshops" when you have more "photoshops" as the volume increases the value decreases. Imagine if you can just tell claude "write me photoshop", go take a dump and come back 30 mins later to a running photoshop. You wouldn't now pay 200USD for a license, now would you? You'd pay 0USD.

If you now create a tool that can (or promises it) can obliterate the costs, it means essentially anyone can produce "photoshop". And when anyone can do it it will be done over and over and at which point they're worth zero and you can't give them away.

The same thing has happened to media publishing, print media -> web, computer games etc.

Then the problem is that when your product is worth zero you can no longer make a business by creating your product, so in order to survive you must look into alternative revenue streams such as ads, data mining etc. None of which are a benefit to to the product itself.

bluefirebrand 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

And what is left of journalism of low effort high volume clickbait garbage

Boy I can't wait for the equivalent of low effort high volume clickbait to take over software. Yay!

tofuahdude 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why unjust? Who promised you that the way software is made will stay static?

Our software industry has specialized, for decades, in "rug pulling" / changing / "disrupting" other industries on a massive scale.

I find it pretty ironic when engineers make these statements in that context.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

Whether you like it or not but the society is built on certain social constructs and agreements.

Do you think it's fair that when the society moves underneath, the capitalistic system moves its tectonic plates it's the individual who has to bear the cost of that?

Abd let's be clear only software devs are just sucking it up. You think lawyers and doctors would allow themselves to be laid off en masse and be replaced with trainees who just prompt the computer?

Also what will happen when high wage earners start loosing their discretionary income. The whole service sector for starters will be shaken.

Just imagine some big tech company laying off 10k engineers. Making 0.3m per year. That's 3b dollars that disappear from the incomes and thus from the economy and just stays in the pockets of the capital holders.

chasd00 3 days ago | parent [-]

i made this point a few comments up but i think what's happening to the software dev industry is what happened to the journalism industry when the web really came into its own and everyone was now a journalist. There were even books written by tech people about how great "creative destruction" is heh now the shoe is on the other foot. How many "old dinosaurs" did web development and software dev in general put out of business? My neck is on the line too but even i have to chuckle at that a little bit.

samiv 3 days ago | parent [-]

yep you're absolutely right. the value in journalism and journalistic output was based on the scarcity, i.e. the cost of publishing reduced the amount of available content. With web the costs were obliterated so the content exploded and the value of any individual piece dropped to essentially zero. When it's worth zero your revenues are zero and zero revenues you can't really pay for any journalism.

So then you have no choice but to seek alternative revenue streams (ads, data mining) and in fact this becomes the thing, since the original thing no longer produces a revenue.

jryle70 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm not seeing you calling it unjust that journalism has been disrupted. Why do you think software development is different?

draftsman 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software. I have used Opus 4.6 on a number of projects, and it still spits out buggy, and sometimes, flat out broken code. I was actually surprised when it completely hallucinated the names of query params for an HTTP request in my code, when in the prompt I had explicitly given it the exact names it needed to use. I thought these frontier models were supposed to be game changing.

thienannguyencv 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

The query parameter issue is a pattern I see a lot. The model has thousands of examples of "how HTTP requests usually look" from its training process. When your input data conflicts with the pattern, the training data takes precedence.

Interestingly, the model doesn't "know" that it's ignoring you. From its perspective, it has retrieved a "meaningful" pattern—virtual parameter names that probably fit common conventions it saw during training. Your actual request simply... wasn't documented.

js8 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> LLMs have lowered the bar for the unskilled person to create shit software.

So? Demand the source code. Run your own AI to review the quality of the code base. The contracting company doesn't want to do it? Fine, find one that will.

daveguy 3 days ago | parent [-]

Add another layer of jank to review the original jank? That doesn't sound like a very helpful solution. But the companies selling AI will love it!

js8 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Technical Supervision of the Investor is a thing, for a reason. The fact that IT industry doesn't have it is ridiculous.

draftsman a day ago | parent | prev [-]

And more importantly, think of the funding we’ll get