Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common).

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”

On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.

100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly.

I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations.

I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don't forget institutional. There's ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are probably coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.

Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation.

OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready!

My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.

What AI IPOs?

True, although even here there likely aren’t enough retail suckers to go around given the amount of initial investment folks need to cash in. Thats the challenge when you have so much crazy pre-IPO cash pumped in.

After you float you still need to sell all those shares at the valuations you want to exit. If they floated say 10% of shares to go public and the price tanks everyone else trying to exit loses their shirt so it’s not a magic exit for the early investors.

there arent enough retail investors in the world to buy this ipo

but they will get a lot of flow from sovereign wealth fund and pensions

you might wonder why anthropic spend time in australia, a country with less economy than canada and almost no industry at all? likely because it has very big pension fund pool to buy their ipo

Retail investors do just fine fleecing themselves on their own

The term fleecing means „there’s nothing left here, jump ship”. Do you really believe they’re going public to cash out this early in the game?

nasdaq listings can be rough, not sure if anyone remember fb ipo

but how else will they own spacex, openai, anthropic, nvidia, in such concentration

Hey uh. Slurs aren't cool.

You could've just as easily said "investors are morons" and had the same connotations without disparaging a group of people