> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed

Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you don't really specify why in your post.

Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I'd bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months.

There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% float) if you are worried about not enough buyers.

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smcin an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common).

https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-by

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financetechbro 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”

On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.

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chollida1 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)

> On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.

The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.

Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.

And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters.

You go public when you get the chance.

I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!

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financetechbro 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Current valuation of OAI is $840bn. 10% float is $80bn, largest US IPO was BABA at $24bn, how is this not massive?

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chollida1 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.

Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.

	▲	financetechbro 10 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Ah understood. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out… OAI needs money one way or another. Thanks for the discourse

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cik 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly.

I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations.

I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don't forget institutional. There's ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are probably coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.

	▲	cgg23 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		THere's interest to hold it for diversification reasons but the reality is investors are not stupid. Look at the basket-case recent IPOs: Figma and Klarna. Many are skeptical of LLMs and how large of an impact they will have in the long-term. Nvidia's stock performance YTD is an example of that, despite the good news being pushed forward. People want to start seeing customers of OAI, Nvidia et al start generating incremental accounting profits from LLM-specific projects, let alone economic profits.

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mattfrommars 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation.

OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready!

My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.