> they will be looking for alternatives.

Who do "they" as in Europe go to?

China also views the EU as a junior partner [0], is running an ongoing disinfo campaign against the industrial exports of an EU member state [1], and has doubled down on it's support for Russia [2] in Ukraine in return for Russia backing China's claim on Taiwan [3].

And the EU is uninterested in building domestic capacity for most critical technologies.

Heck, last week [4] the EU excluded AI, Quantum, Semiconductors, and other technologies from the Industrial Accelerator Act (aka the "Made in EU" act) in order to concentrate on automotive and "net-zero" technologies.

Given that Chinese technology imports are already under the radar in the EU due to the Ukraine war, this is basically the EU creating a carveout for the US.

Even the major European Telecom and Space companies like Eutelsat, Deutsche Telekom, and Telefónica bluntly stated that they view the EU's digital sovereignity strategy as dead in the water [5] in it's current form.

Edit: can't reply

> They/we will go to domestic producers as much as possible, then China, then US, then rest of the world in that order. At least that would make a rational approach since (for now) unique things like f-35 can become an expensive paperweight on a whim of a lonely sick man. You can't build any sort of defense strategy on that, can you

But as I clearly showed, the EU is doing otherwise.

And the EU cannot work with China as long as China backs Russia and undermines European industrial exports.

All the rhetoric about digital sovereignity and domestic capacity has been just that - rhetoric.

[0] - https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.ht...

[1] - https://www.defense.gouv.fr/desinformation/nos-analyses-froi...

[2] - https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2025-01-...

[3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/russias-shoigu-chinas-wa...

[4] - https://www.sdxcentral.com/news/eu-axes-ai-chips-and-quantum...

[5] - https://www.sdxcentral.com/news/europes-digital-sovereignty-...

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generic92034 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> And the EU cannot work with China as long as China backs Russia and undermines European industrial exports.

I mean, that is not that huge a difference compared to the USA (lifting sanctions against Russia, no tariffs there either, but plenty tariffs for "allies"; threatening NATO members in several ways; taking over Russia's "peace" plans for Ukraine 1:1 and putting the pressure solely on Ukraine; (I could go on for pages)).

I am not sure Americans really understand how much trust is already gone.

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alephnerd 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> that is not that huge a difference compared to the USA

It is for the EU.

The EU dislikes the current deprioritization of the Ukraine Conflict by the US, but also recognizes that the PRC is directly providing material support and subsidizing Russia's military industrial complex [0]. That is the red line for much of the EU.

Similarly, for the PRC it's continued support of Russia in their war in Ukraine is also a non-negotiatable [1], and the CCP's foreign mouthpieces continue to reiterate that "the mainstay of EU foreign policy — supporting Ukraine in a conflict to defeat Russia — has turned into a quagmire of sunk costs with little hope of success" [2].

> I am not sure Americans really understand how much trust is already gone

We know. And we don't care.

As long as the EU views Ukraine's territorial integrity as non-negotiable and a large portion of EU states view Russia as the primary national security threat, the US will remain the less bad option than the PRC or Russia.

Both the US and China are aligned in that we view the EU as a junior party that can be pressured [3].

If the EU views Russia as a threat, it will have to accept American vassalage becuase the PRC will continue to back Russia [1].

If the EU views America as a threat, it will have to accept Chinese vassalage, give up Ukraine, and accept Russia as the primary European military power.

Based on the carveouts within the Industrial Acceleration Act, the EU has chosen American vassalage.

[0] - https://ecfr.eu/article/funding-war-courting-crisis-why-chin...

[1] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch...

[2] - https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/16/WS69b7f2e2a310d...

[3] - https://www.economist.com/china/2025/11/17/europe-sees-china...

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generic92034 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Very bold words. I am not even convinced the USA will stay relevant on the world stage, in the long run. Cutting ties hurts, but the process is underway. Also, "vassalage" is a bold word, if the US cannot make the EU give up Greenland or come running to help them in the Strait of Hormuz (there are also other examples). It is almost as if European politicians are playing it smart.

	▲	alephnerd 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		And my question is - are you fine sacrificing Ukraine in return for a Russian and Chinese military umbrella? This is the hard requirement for China to engage with the EU [0]. The answer in Poland, the Baltics, Czechia, and Finland is NO and that Russia is worse and that Ukraine must be supported, and will back the US no matter how transactional we become. The answer in Hungary, Slovakia, and Belgium [1] is YES and that sacrificing Ukraine for Russia is acceptable. [0] - https://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-... [1] - https://www.ft.com/content/4ce01938-a671-4433-83a7-dada2b3ba...

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kakacik 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They/we will go to domestic producers as much as possible, then China, then US, then rest of the world in that order. At least that would make a rational approach since (for now) unique things like f-35 can become an expensive paperweight on a whim of a lonely sick man. You can't build any sort of defense strategy on that, can you.