| ▲ | kolinko 3 hours ago |
| The thing is - without Falcon9 / Starship they really cannot - both China and EU are ~10-20 years (sic) behind SpaceX, and without thousands of satellites on LEO you just cannot have terminal similar to SpaceX's. (And don't get me started on how bad Iris2 is/will be. It's a program that EU has to shut down discussions on how terribly behind we are. The last time I checked, a year ago, EU's plans were to have first Falcon9-level flights around 2035 (!!!), and that was assuming no delays, so absurdly optimistic. Adding a few years for ramping up the production, 2040 is the earliest we can have optimistically something like Starlink from 2020. |
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| ▲ | icegreentea2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I'd broadly agree that EU is pretty behind the curve. But I think China is probably only ~5 years max behind the curve in terms of Starlink. But in terms of defense needs, I don't think you actually need the thousands and thousands for reasonable returns. DoD/NRO has bought maybe ~500 Starshields (https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/03/26/spacex-starshield-...) from SpaceX. I think China is well within reach of being able to put up those numbers within a few years, even if they don't get re-use figured out (which I think they will within a 2-3 years - basically what SpaceX did from the first landing attempts to success). |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 33 minutes ago | parent [-] | | China did 92 launches in 2025. If they only need to put up 500, and if they can put up 22 per launch like SpaceX can, they have the capability now, let alone 5 years from now. |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Falcon-9 first landed in 2015 and was regularly landing within a couple of years. So being 10 years behind means "almost ready to go". suborbital Yuanxingzhe-1 landed may 2025, and orbital Zhuque-3 was really close to landing in December. Long March 12A also tried in December although it wasn't as close to success. So if China is 10 years behind, they've caught up. We won't know if they're 10 years or further behind for a couple years more, though. And while China may be 10-15 years behind on their Falcon-9 equivalents, they're likely less than 10 years behind on their Starship equivalents. |
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| ▲ | sigmoid10 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | China also had made industry espionage their way to go in these things. They are not even hiding it anymore. It's almost comical how much they copied SpaceX. And I'd be surprised if they hadn't supply-chained themselves into some level of access in all the big aerospace corpos by now. But Europe? Developing this kind of stuff from scratch in a few years without an unregulated messy startup ecosystem and no army of state sponsored hackers? No chance. | | |
| ▲ | Liftyee an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Curious - Any sources? Looking at publicly available details and copying them might be intellectually dishonest if it was a piece of coursework, but this isn't an academic research project. Taking features from something that's known to work is the fastest way to get to something working. If there's actual smuggling of designs or trade secrets going on, I'd be more interested. But if it's just "the rocket looks the same on the outside", that's hardly "industrial espionage". | | |
| ▲ | mwambua 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Bloomberg's podcast "The Big Take" has been running an interesting series on Chinese industrial espionage called "The Sixth Bureau". Here's a link to the Youtube playlist: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38L5UzLwt-s&list=PLe4PRejZgr... | |
| ▲ | buckle8017 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Be serious, you don't really need a citation to know the CCP is using industrial espionage to advance their defense industry. | | |
| ▲ | bryanlarsen an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Sure, they're trying. But there's no evidence they've succeeded in stealing anything other than open source intelligence from SpaceX. There's a lot of open source intelligence about SpaceX rocket designs available. | |
| ▲ | throw310822 23 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Be serious, do you think defense industry normally respects other nations' industrial secrets? |
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| ▲ | joe_mamba an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | >China also had made industry espionage their way to go in these things. Few layman know this but France is one of the biggest industrial espionage players active in the US and Europe, after Israel of course. In fact, according to Wikileaks diplomatic cables from Berlin quote: "France is the country that conducts the most industrial espionage [in Europe], even more than China or Russia." Basically, every nation on the planet engages in espionage for its own benefit if they can get away with it. There's no honor amongst thieves. Singling out China as if they're the only ones doing it, or the ones doing it the most, is both naive and hilarious. |
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| ▲ | pie_flavor 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The first rocket may take off sooner than 2040. But Starlink is not just a rocket, it is a complete business process, with a launch regularity and price. A Starlink satellite's worth of space on a Falcon 9 costs 500k-750k. With about ten thousand satellites, which last about five years, this means maybe a billion and a half per year spent on the space arm of the business, not counting ground stations. If they had to spend, say, ten times this, Starlink wouldn't be profitable today. And that's pretty much reality: the Ariane rocket costs ~$100m to Falcon's ~$15m (nobody knows what Zhuque-3 costs); I think cost per kg is 5000 vs 900. You could get it down to ~1.5B a year by narrowing it to just the latitudes overhead the EU, but then you cut the potential revenues too and have the same problem. | | |
| ▲ | jopsen 11 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > but then you cut the potential revenues too and have the same problem. How many starlink clones are there really customers for? Many people have fiber, and in an urban area you'll probably prefer 5G, if you can't get fiber or wired internet. Starlink is great if you live in the middle of nowhere, but few people do. Even if you could do a competitive launch cost, the number of customers is limited. | | |
| ▲ | db48x 7 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Starlink is equally great no matter where you live :) But you’re right, in urban areas it should be possible to do better. If you can get 1Gbps symmetric fiber then get the fiber. Sadly in the US it is not always possible to do better than Starlink, even in urban areas. It’s gotten better in the last decade, but many cities are still stuck with really bad options due to bad choices in the past. |
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| ▲ | IshKebab an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Sure but the Chinese military can easily afford that. |
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| ▲ | standardUser an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | China is a full blown superpower and it should surprise no one when they catch up to or surpass the West in technical feats. |
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| ▲ | db48x 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| SpaceX will happily launch satellites for competitors. OneWeb has bought launches from them, for example. |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Or at least they were while anti-trust still had some teeth. Trump's DOJ is highly unlikely to go after Starlink for refusing to launch for a competitor, let alone another nation's military. | | |
| ▲ | zitterbewegung 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | To be future proof for more administrations you don't want a monopoly at any step. you really want at least three competitors at minimum. Large companies in tech have realized this by now since the 90s. Recently TeraWave was launched by SpaceX due to the inherent risk (and this is a direct competitor to SpaceX. See
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/bezos-blue-origin-satellite-... | | |
| ▲ | fragmede 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | What's confusing about that is Jeff Bezos is funding TeraWave to also compete with Amazon who is also launching their own Starlink competitor for satellite Internet? | | |
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| ▲ | db48x 33 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | I’m not even sure that anti–trust laws come into it; they just want as many launch customers as possible. Better to earn some money off of a competing constellation rather than earn nothing, right? |
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| ▲ | thisislife2 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Can you explain what makes Falcon9 / Starship special (or needed) to launch these satellites? China, India, EU, Japan etc. all have the capability to launch satellites. So why is a Falcon9 / Starship a particular requirement? |
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| ▲ | mooreds 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Cost, maybe? It is one thing to ship up a valuable satellite (which they all can do). But to ship up 1000s of satellites (and keep doing it in perpetuity, because IIRC they don't have a long lifetime[0]) gets expensive. 0: Looks like 5 years. https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites.html | | |
| ▲ | SlinkyOnStairs 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Another major detail is that SpaceX is simply burning enormous amounts of money on this. Starlink's revenue is comparable to the ESA's entire 5 billion euro budget, and it still looks like starlink is not net-profitable as a service. (And kessler syndrome avoidance is already pushing up costs with the lower orbits) The chief problem "stopping" other countries from developing a starlink competitor is that starlink simply doesn't make all that much sense if your country is capable of basic infrastructure construction. Fiber runs are expensive but not that expensive. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > it still looks like starlink is not net-profitable as a service Starlink was profitable in 2024 [1] and should be materially profitable once V3 goes up. > kessler syndrome avoidance is already pushing up costs with the lower orbits This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue. Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence. And the propellant depots SpaceX is building for NASA tie in neatly if the chips stablise enough to permit longer-lasting birds. > doesn't make all that much sense if your country is capable of basic infrastructure construction Infrastructure gets blown up and shut off. Hence the military interest. [1] https://www.pcmag.com/news/how-much-does-starlink-make-this-... | | |
| ▲ | SlinkyOnStairs 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Starlink was profitable in 2024 Those are revenue figures. > This hits everyone. And it’s not a serious cost issue. That it affects everyone just makes the problem worse. If China or the EU does commit to a starlink competitor, there's even more crowding in orbit. Even more collision avoidance required. > Starlinks are still being deorbited before they need to be due to obselescence That's the point. These things are not staying up long, and they're staying up shorter and shorter. The constellation is both expensive to build and to maintain. That makes it a lot of trouble compared to running a bunch of fiber once and having only occasional maintenance trouble when some idiot drags a backhoe through it. > Infrastructure gets blown up and shut off. Hence the military interest. The military interest is real, but it remains to be seen how much money they're willing to put up for it. Higher latency more conventional satellite internet will have significant cost savings in comparison. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Those are revenue figures And also net income. > just makes the problem worse Did you skip the part where it’s not a serious cost issue? None of these birds are even close to being propellant restricted. > These things are not staying up long, and they're staying up shorter and shorter Because they’re being intentionally deorbited to make room for better birds. They don’t have to be deorbited as quickly as they are. But overwhelming demand makes it a profitable bet. > it remains to be seen how much money they're willing to put up for it $70mm per year for 22 birds [1]. [1] https://www.space.com/spacex-starshield-space-force-contract | |
| ▲ | toomuchtodo 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What would the cost be to deny these orbital altitudes? | | |
| ▲ | SlinkyOnStairs an hour ago | parent [-] | | Incalculable. The cost isn't in paying someone to not use the orbit, it's that the busier a part of space gets, the more expensive it becomes to do collision avoidance and station keeping. What makes this impossible to calculate is that there's an unknown exponential involved. The more satellites, the more collisions that need avoiding. And the higher the chance that one avoidance will create new future collisions. At some point the space is simply so busy that collisions can no longer be avoided. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > What makes this impossible to calculate It’s really not impossible to calculate, particularly if you’re trying to cause damage. The answer is it’s cheaper to shoot down individual satellites than try to create a localized cascade. Kessler cascades propagate too slowly, and degrade too quickly in low orbits, to be useful as a military tactic. In high orbit one could feasibly e.g. deny use of a geostationary band. But again, it’s cheaper to just shoot down each satellite. | |
| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | estearum 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | From the PCMag article: > For example, although the Starlink subsidiary reported $2.7 billion in revenue for 2024, the same financial statement doesn’t account for the costs of launching and maintaining a fleet of nearly 8,000 Starlink satellites. ??? | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Later: “The document also shows the Starlink subsidiary registered a net income of only $72.7 million for 2024. The year prior, the subsidiary incurred a net loss of $30.7 million. However, the financial statement notes the subsidiary purchased nearly $2.3 billion in Starlink hardware and services from the SpaceX parent last year.” Those figures, to my understanding, include cost of services and launch in COGS. |
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| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | starlink has some travel niches where it makes sense. However not many cross the ocean. military where you can't trust the nearby infrastructure is the other big one. Disaster recovery where the local system is not working isn't big enough to fund anything though it will use whatever they can get. | | |
| ▲ | fragmede 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The cruise ship industry is $78B of revenue. He airline industry is $840B of revenue. Between the two, I think Starlink has enough customers crossing the ocean to be profitable, given how hard they drive down costs. |
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| ▲ | victorbjorklund an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Because the Chinese govt doesn’t have money to burn… |
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| ▲ | samrus 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Has to be the cost. A reusable launch vehicle is such a ridiculously better value proposition that it creates a discrete evolution. Some things just arent feasible to do without them | |
| ▲ | tartuffe78 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Starlink is apparently 65% of all active satellites, it would be very expensive to emulate that without super efficient launching capabilities. | | |
| ▲ | palmotea 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Starlink is apparently 65% of all active satellites, it would be very expensive to emulate that without super efficient launching capabilities. But does a military really need that many to get the necessary capability? Would a smaller constellation be sufficient, especially without competing civilian users? |
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| ▲ | tekla 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | None of those countries (well probably except China) have any significant launch capacity to deploy constellations | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | They can build it in a few years though. It takes money and can be done overnight but there is nothing about that that costs 10 years. 10 years got to the moon - from a much lower base. 10 years means you are starting with college graduates and building it from no previous experience - or you already have a lot but only are putting minimal budget into improving. |
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| ▲ | tristor an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| All of that, and the funny thing is /that is the easy part/. Moving payloads to space is just incredibly expensive, but not fundamentally hard in the same way that post-launch coordination of satellite constellations and RF tuning to support things like mobile connectivity are (I can connect to Starlink satellites from my iPhone through T-Mobile). |
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| ▲ | bryanlarsen an hour ago | parent [-] | | Connecting to a cell phone and/or selling a phased array antenna that can track an object travelling 17,000 mph for $300 is crazy hard. But a military is going to be fine with an antenna that costs $3000. |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The story I like to tell is about the Manhattan Project. This caused a debate in US strategic circles that set policy for the entire post-1945 world. Debate included whether a preemptive nuclear strike on the USSR was necessary or even just a good idea. Anyway, many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. The hydrogen bomb? The USA tested theirs in 1952. The USSR? 1953. China now has decades of commitment to long-term projects, an interest in national security and creating an virtuous circle for various industries. The US banned the export of EUV lithography machiens to China but (IMHO) they made a huge mistake by also banning the best chips. Why was this a mistake? Because it created a captive market for Chinese-made chips. The Soviet atomic project was helped by espionage and ideology (ie some people believed in the communist project or simply thought it a bad idea that only the US had nuclear weapons). That's just not necessary today. You simply throw some money at a few key researchers and engineers who worked at ASML and you catch up to EUV real fast. I said a couple of years ago China would develop their own EUV processes because they don't want the US to have that control over them. It's a matter of national security. China seems to be 3-5 years away on conservative estimates. More evidence of this is China not wanting to import NVidia chips despite the ban being lifted [1]. China has the same attitude to having its own launch capability. They've already started testing their own reusable rockets [2]. China has the industrial ecosystem to make everything that goes into a rocket, a captive market for Chinese launches (particularly the Chinese government and military) and the track record to pull this off. And guess what? China can hire former SpaceX engineers too. I predict in 5 years these comments doubting China's space ambitions will be instead "well of course that was going to happen". [1]: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/china-want-buy-nvidi... [2]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/chinas-explosive-... |
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| ▲ | ciupicri 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > many in these circles thought the USSR would take 20 years to develop the bomb if they ever did. It took 4 years. Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets. | | |
| ▲ | kelnos 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Yes, but how they got it is irrelevant. They got it, and that's what matters. China can (and does) do the same for current tech today, through whatever means. (Also, GP's comment directly said what you said; not sure what your comment adds to the discussion.) | |
| ▲ | adrian_b 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Because of the traitors, the Soviet Union has gained a few years, but the end result would have been the same. At that time, there were a few good Russian nuclear physicists, and they have also captured many German physicists and engineers. Actually I think that the effect of the information provided by the traitors was much less in reducing the time until the Soviet Union got the bomb than in reducing their expenses for achieving that. In the stories that appear in the press or in the lawsuits about industrial espionage the victims claim that their precious IP has been stolen. However that is seldom true, because the so-called IP isn't usually what is really precious. The most precious part of the know-how related to an industrial product is typically about the solutions that had been tried but had failed, before choosing the working solution. Normally any competent engineer when faced with the problem of how to make some product equivalent with that of a competitor, be it a nuclear bomb or anything else, can think about a dozen solutions that could be used to make such a thing. In most cases, the set of solutions imagined independently will include the actual solution used by the competitor. The problem is that it is not known which of the imagined solutions will work in reality and which will not work. Experimenting with all of them can cost a lot o f time and money. If industrial espionage determines which is the solution used by the competitor, the useful part is not knowing that solution, but knowing that there is no need to test the other solutions, saving thus a lot of time and money. | |
| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Some people will give it to china too. We have even caught a few (in other industries). | |
| ▲ | palmotea 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Because some people committed treason and gave the technology to the Soviets. American big business is pretty much doing that every day, handing over technology to increase China's manufacturing tech level. Pretty soon China won't need it anymore. If the massive incompetence of the US government and business establishment is defeated, the the industrial espionage will start to go in the other direction. More likely is the US just declines, becoming little more than a source of raw materials and agricultural products to fuel advanced Chinese industry. |
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| ▲ | assaddayinh 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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