Do you have testable hypothesis for how the 10x will manifest? I.e., is there a way we could (coarsely) measure this in a year or two from now?

That's a very good question. Some metrics I'm watching or considering watching right now:

- Amount of leads we're taking in (per unit of time)

- Sprint velocity changes (task complexity should stay roughly the same with AI, and team velocity increase — we've been seeing this happening)

- Hire rates (more sales people, less developers?)

- Number of projects per unit of time (of similar dimension, hard to measure)

- Length of "bugfixing buffer" before big releases (we've actually been noticing this go down)

- Another way of saying it is: number of bugs, or bugs per feature

- Drift between planned execution time and actual execution time (we've been delivering early...but I guess we'll soon adjust our estimates...or maybe not, who knows?)

- Spend on AI models

- I can't measure this, but I can sort of "feel it": but the overall feedback we get from clients, the feeling we get from them.

- Number of tests (tests have skyrocketed. Can't be sure about the quality, but, hey, it's a metric)

- Feature turnaround time (how long since "feature is proposed" until it's actually implemented)

- documentation to code ratio (not sure what we'll make of it, but there's a somewhat worrying trend here)

- team balance: is everyone slowly becoming fullstack? Do we feel that those who aren't are significantly affecting development speed? if so, that indicates that the other ones are somehow moving faster

I can't really think of any others, but I'm sure they exist.

The future will not be evenly distributed. You can't expect to see it in the productivity of the industry as a whole, or even the productivity of a large company. You might be able to see it in a medium-sized team if you measure carefully.