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ardanur 4 hours ago

Polymarket is effectively an assassination auction list, you just need to find out which low likelihood resolutions can be swayed by someone's death. But you would need to have money to start which is something aspiring assassins aren't likely to have. And you would also need the skills to launder cryptocurrencies effectively.

This is also true with traditional stock markets, except that laundering real money is much harder to do alone. In the real world an assassin can't really involve more people as those people would realize they are loose ends since they have a get-out-of-jail card in turning on you.

The markets could get ahead of this by stipulating that a resolution via murder will always lead to resolution at prices at a time prior to the death. This would technically incentivize a potential assassin to commit a deniable murder, but if they succeed it won't be the market's [PR] problem.

Rapzid 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> will always lead to resolution at prices at a time prior to the death

But there might be an incentive to freeze the price? I think polymarkets should be banned.

hedora 2 hours ago | parent [-]

"I bet X will not be assassinated on this date in this way" financial products were the primary reason polymarkets were banned over a century ago.

No idea if they've somehow been legalized as a rider to a 10,000 page appropriations bill, or if they're already illegal in the US.

aaron695 3 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

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