| ▲ | apexalpha 4 hours ago |
| While I have no love for the Iranian regime I fear this will end up like the 'liberation' of Iraq: A massive power vacuum in an unstable Islamic regime. What even is the plan here if the air assault fails? Boots on the ground? In Iran? |
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| ▲ | nerdyadventurer 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > While I have no love for the Iranian regime Who say US is not regime? It is the world largest regime in the world, with bidders in every country to do their bidding, mass surveillance including their own country men. People blame only Russia, China, Iran etc when US have been doing the same for years. Watch: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/w6_2Ul3Ght8 |
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| ▲ | apexalpha 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I generally use 'regime' for autocratic governments. Trump is democratically elected, for now. I'm not actually sure if this is correct, English is not my native language. | | |
| ▲ | ajb 8 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | [delayed] | |
| ▲ | nerdyadventurer 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Iran also had elections, were they manipulated? I do not know. Were US people were manipulated using social media for elections. I do not know either. > Trump is democratically elected, for now. He was convicted felon before the election, I cannot believe that he won. |
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| ▲ | seydor 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The plan is a show of power. Trump will leave in 2 years, leaving much of the world in disarray because he had no plan whatsoever, and his staff is literally out of the movie Idiocracy. Nothing of lasting value will come out of the horrors that happened in the past 3 years, and in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief. |
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| ▲ | tasuki 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > in 10 years we will look back into the present with disbelief. You mean in 10 years, when the US is a stable and high-functioning democracy with independent media, a universally liked, charming, and polite president, supported by both the right and the left, who finally manage to overcome their minor differences? Is... is this the direction this is all heading? | | |
| ▲ | tdeck 44 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Maybe the feeling will be "I can't believe I didn't get out of there while I still could". |
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| ▲ | baubino an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > in 10 years we (the world) will look back into the present with disbelief. This is a very optimistic outlook, to the point of naivete, though I really hope you are right. In reality, neither Trump nor his cronies are acting like people who imagine they will be out of power anytime soon. In 10 years the world will likely still be dealing with the fallout of this administration, if not still dealing with the administration itself. |
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| ▲ | graemep 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Iraq was not an Islamic regime in the same sense. It was not a theocracy. There were non Muslims in senior political positions. The Iraqi government was a lot more stable. What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse? |
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| ▲ | Matl 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not. Iran has shown that it is remarkably sane actually, given the aggression shown towards it by Israel and the US and has made a lot of efforts to reach a deal. Remember, it was the US that exited the JCPOA and now it wants Iran to give up all its misses so that they would be defenseless. I have no love for theocracies, but I do think the Iranian system is a lot better than the likes of Saudi Arabia, which we're buddy buddy with. Oh and I guess the founder of Syrian branch of AQ and deputy head of ISIS running Syria is better that what was before too, in your book? | | |
| ▲ | jonnybgood 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Iran attacks its neighbors through proxies: Hizbollah, Houthis, Shiite militias, and Hamas. These groups are armed and funded by Iran. | | |
| ▲ | Matl 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Oh yes, and the fact that Israel is just sitting there occupying millions of Palestinians, attacking Syria, Lebanon etc. despite a 'ceasefire' has nothing to do with why these groups continue to exist, I am sure. Iran's funding for these groups is a part of its 'defense in depth' strategy since it doesn't have the capability to project power otherwise. I am not saying that it is the right thing to do, but I am also not that surprised that backed into a corner, they're trying to build regional proxies. It's not like the US and Israel are not doing the same in and around Iran. But I like how these statements, like yours, are always made with zero context and hope for an uninformed audience to upvote them. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Iran's funding for these groups is a part of its 'defense in depth' strategy That's the rationalisation. Not a justification. Defence in depth was Hitler's rationale for invading Russia, is Israel's strategy for pacifying neighbors, and is Russia's excuse for invading Ukraine. Creating weak neighbors is checklist-item one for any classical aspiring land empire. It's also tremendously destabilising to its neighbourhood. (It's not a coincidence that China and Russia are bordered by (a) shitshows or (b) countries militarily posturing against them.) | | |
| ▲ | Matl 43 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Hitler's rationale Ah yes, give any discussion enough time and Hitler inevitably gets to be whoever your opponent is. Unlike Hitler, unlike Israel and unlike the US, Iran has not proactively attacked. Hitler had no reason to fear attack from Russia, Czechoslovakia or France. Iran has every reason to fear an attack from the US and Israel, look at what is happening right now ffs. Western governments provide funding and shelter for extremist Iranian groups like People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran and various separatists movements inside the country, so please spare me this Hitler nonsense. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 33 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > give any discussion enough time and Hitler inevitably gets to be whoever your opponent is Because it fits. Nazi Germany was an aspiring land power. You can see the same effect in Imperial Rome and the Persian empires. (And, while America was conquering its own continent, on the peripheries of Manifest-Destiny America.) > Unlike Hitler, unlike Israel and unlike the US, Iran has not proactively attacked Of course they have. Its proxies are constantly proactively attacking everyone in their neighbourhood. > Hitler had no reason to fear attack from Russia, Czechoslovakia or France. Iran has every reason to fear an attack from the US and Israel, look at what is happening right now ffs Everyone has reason to fear attack from everyone. Defence in depth is a regionally-destabilising response to that security imperative. And by the way, Russia and Germany did wind up going to war with each other. Same as Iran and Israel, that same one whose anihiliation the former has been chanting for since its revolution. Arguing Iran has been some peaceful country minding its own business is totally inaccurate. | | |
| ▲ | Matl 13 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > by the way, Russia and Germany did wind up going to war with each other. Same as Iran and Israel, Are you seriously arguing that Hitler was rational for preemptively attacking Russia because AFTER Hitler attacked Russia, Russia did not simply sit back and let itself be attacked but in fact started defending itself?
And are you arguing that Israel doing the same is rational because AFTER Israel attacked Iran, Iran launched some missiles towards Israel IN RESPONSE TO THE ISRAELI ATTACK, therefore proving Israel right that Iran is going to attack them? > that same one whose anihiliation the former has been chanting for since its revolution. Oh and Israel has been nothing but wishing them happy Ramadan? The reason Israel does not want the current Iranian system to survive is because it sees it as the only possible threat to its eternal domination of the Palestinians and its ability to dictate its borders in the Middle East. |
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| ▲ | rwyinuse 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Iranian government massacres its own civilians whenever they dare to demand change. Iranians are also largely secular compared to citizens of most Arab states, and hate their government. They're also mostly Shia, which makes it hard for likes of ISIS and Al Qaeda to gain ground there, as Shias are enemies to Sunni extremists. I believe there's a much better change of democracy / sane regime in Iran, than there ever was in Iraq and other Arab states. | |
| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | Veen 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Iran attacks through its proxies. | | |
| ▲ | Matl 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Mossad was literally bragging that it is handing out weapons in Iran recently, but yes, Iran always 'attacks' for no reason and should not do anything no matter what happens right? Same as the Gaza and Lebanon ceasefires where one side stops attacking and the other (Israel) keeps bombing? I see how this works. |
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| ▲ | tonyedgecombe 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Iraq was attacking its neighbors every couple of years, Iran is not. Nonsense. Iran has been stirring up trouble in the region for a long time. | | |
| ▲ | Matl 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Indeed, Israel just wants to occupy the Palestinians in peace. Perhaps you forgot that it was Iraq who attacked Iran and Kuwait while Iran attacked no country but hey. |
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| ▲ | bojan 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That all being said, we are talking about different cultures. Iranians are on average more educated than Iraqis were/are, and the country is ethnically more homogeneous. So I have hope that they'll find a way to organize when the current regime falls. | | |
| ▲ | dastuer 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | And we’re mostly not religious at all. We have Ramadan here now. No one cares. Arab influencer come and make videos and are shocked Everyone eats and drinks during the days we don’t care | | |
| ▲ | Al-Khwarizmi 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I know that, but what I don't get is with a society like that, how can a theocratic government last for so long? Maybe I'm being naive, but authoritarian governments tend to fall when an educated population is against them. Iran looks like a weird case to me in this respect in that the population seems to be against (and honestly, seems to be quite brave) and still the theocracy goes on and on. Anyway, best of luck in this. Your people deserve better. | | |
| ▲ | dastuer an hour ago | parent [-] | | Thank you. Yes, it’s complex. Firstly, the regime isn’t truly theocratic. There are many online videos of regime family members enjoying parties and alcohol. The second piece: I assume 10-20% of people were participating in the exploitation of our country. They kept the other 80% in control for a long time. |
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| ▲ | rwyinuse 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yeah this is what lots of Western people don't get. The cultural / ideological gap between rulers and those being ruled appears much larger in Iran than in most other Muslim countries. Many countries have hardcore conservative rulers AND population, but in Iran the problem is mostly just the rulers. With better government, Iran would have so much potential. | |
| ▲ | Revanche1367 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yet another very recent account on HN claiming to be Persian and speaking about things on the ground in Iran. Can’t you guys at least try a little harder to be convincing? |
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| ▲ | yard2010 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Please provide sources when claiming such bold claims. | | |
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| ▲ | apexalpha 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >What exactly do you imagine will replace the Iranian government that is worse? A regime that only controls the capital, leaving the rest of the country in a power vacuum leading to internal conflicts and sectarian violence that will eventually spill over the borders into Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iraq etc... | |
| ▲ | kqr 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Nothing at all could be worse! One of the issues with Iraq was that Rumsfeld didn't want to acknowledge that it takes more personnel post-toppling (to rebuild infrastructure and institutions) than during invasion. It seems like the current government could be prone to make the same mistake. I recommend anyone interested in this to read Cobra II. It's an excellent book. | |
| ▲ | riffraff 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Was ISIS better or worse than Iran's government is now? | |
| ▲ | bhouston 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | “ There were non Muslims in senior political positions.” What are you talking about? Iraq is >95% Muslim, but there are a few different sub groups. With those numbers there were few in government then and now who are not Muslim. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Iraq | |
| ▲ | RobertoG 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | what are you talking about? Iran is a sophisticated country with a parliament and elections, with a powerful civil society. It has 90 million inhabitants. They graduated more women in STEM disciplines than the USA. Yes, it's a theocracy, but it's more free than Saudi Arabia for instance. Are the Americans going to bomb the Saudis next? or only if Israel ask for it? | |
| ▲ | blks 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | No government and another perpetual war zone. |
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| ▲ | citrin_ru 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I don’t think it’s possible to change regime without boots on the ground which is not currently considered. So there will be no power vacuum, at most Iran military will be weaken. It’s not a big win for the US but would allow Trump to safe face after his demands were essentially rejected. |
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| ▲ | esseph 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I imagine CIA political officers are on the ground right now. |
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| ▲ | Dig1t 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Your description of what happened in Iraq was exactly the point of why we invaded. Iraq and Iran were the two biggest threats to Israel, we got rid of Iraq and now we are removing the only other rival to Israel remaining in the Middle East. After this, Israel, being the only nuclear power in the region and having massive funding from the American taxpayer, will dominate the entire region. This has always been the goal. |
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| ▲ | hjkl0 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | After this, Israel, being the most dangerous rogue state in the world and extremely divided internally, will likely devolve into civil war. One hopes, anyway. That’s the best chance we have to remove the Nazis currently in power here. | |
| ▲ | throwaway637372 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | After Iran falls - Turkey is next. |
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| ▲ | altern8 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What does it mean "fail"? What is the goal, to overthrow the regime, so success would mean a change of government? (sorry, I haven't followed) |
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| ▲ | halflife 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| So replacing a fascist with western antagonism and constant threat on American allies, with a somewhat democratic, weak, and western aligned government? Sounds like a good idea |
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| ▲ | seydor 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | It sounds like you believe that the people of Iran don't support the regime and are secretly loving america. | | |
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| ▲ | KaiserPro 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Boots on the ground? In Iran? Trump is a coward. He knows that boots on the ground will mean massive losses. The only way he does that is if someone convinces him that they can go in and out very quickly. Unlike Venezuela I doubt there are people in the right place to oust Khamenei. |
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| ▲ | viking123 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| The place has 90 million people, how do you even deal with this without throwing the whole place into chaos? Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore, the global south will resent us more than ever. If other countries go to aggressive wars, our condemnation is worthless. Trump is completely compromised and it was probably the powers that be who told them that this is how it is going to be. |
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| ▲ | nerdyadventurer 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Besides, after this the collective west has no moral high-ground anymore They never had any morals, all for their business gains look at Middle East, Africa and Asian countries where they were involved. Europe always looked other way when US does something and vise versa. | |
| ▲ | graemep 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There is no such thing as the "global south" other than in the minds of westerners and westernised elites (and elites are getting less westernised). From a western viewpoint you can lump the rest of the world together, but it makes no sense from any other view point. As for moral high ground. Compared to whom? China? Russia? Myanmar? | | |
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