> This feels like a much bigger development than Russia-Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine war is 1M+ combat casualties deep and is nowhere near finished. You are out of touch.

But russia-ukraine is also a much more contained war between 2 parties that will likely end in a stalemate.

The middle east is a much more tangled web of alliances and hatreds, i think the iranian regime falling would have much more harder to predict second order geopolitical effects.

▲

bojan 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> But russia-ukraine is also a much more contained war between 2 parties that will likely end in a stalemate.

The whole of Europe is affected, it might seem contained only if you live very far away. Every European country is affected in one way or another.

It's not a stalemate if Ukraine ends up losing 30% of its territory. That's Russian victory.

	▲	wiseowise 19 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Ukraine will never de jure give up those territories and majority of nations will never recognize those as part of Russia. And it’s 20%, not 30%. Pre full scale war it was 7%, now it is 19%, so during the five years they’ve captured 12% of Ukraine's territory. Russian goals were: - Quick decapitation - fail - Change of government - fail - Prove that majority of Ukrainians are phone Russians and the moment greater Russia comes everyone will see that Ukraine is not a real state - fail - Make second Belarus out of Ukraine - fail - Stop NATO enlargement, Finland and Sweden joined NATO essentially doubling border with NATO - fail - Dissuade Ukraine from joining EU and make it pro Russian first - fail - Prove that Russia is a great military power on par with US that can topple regimes at will - fail - Make Russia strategically independent- fail, Russia is now completely dependent on China - Destabilize EU - fail, Europe is united like never under US/Russia/China threat This war will enter history as one of the worst blunders.

▲

torlok 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I hope you're joking. This is such "Ukrainians are just Russians by a different name" logic. China, Belarus, and North Korea are deep in this conflict, so are all the European countries. There's no stalemate end to this war, only a temporary cease fire or the collapse of Russia.