> But russia-ukraine is also a much more contained war between 2 parties that will likely end in a stalemate.

The whole of Europe is affected, it might seem contained only if you live very far away. Every European country is affected in one way or another.

It's not a stalemate if Ukraine ends up losing 30% of its territory. That's Russian victory.

Ukraine will never de jure give up those territories and majority of nations will never recognize those as part of Russia. And it’s 20%, not 30%. Pre full scale war it was 7%, now it is 19%, so during the five years they’ve captured 12% of Ukraine's territory.

Russian goals were:

- Quick decapitation - fail

- Change of government - fail

- Prove that majority of Ukrainians are phone Russians and the moment greater Russia comes everyone will see that Ukraine is not a real state - fail

- Make second Belarus out of Ukraine - fail

- Stop NATO enlargement, Finland and Sweden joined NATO essentially doubling border with NATO - fail

- Dissuade Ukraine from joining EU and make it pro Russian first - fail

- Prove that Russia is a great military power on par with US that can topple regimes at will - fail

- Make Russia strategically independent- fail, Russia is now completely dependent on China

- Destabilize EU - fail, Europe is united like never under US/Russia/China threat

This war will enter history as one of the worst blunders.