| ▲ | inigyou 4 hours ago |
| Some people are calling it the "American century of humiliation" No other country that went through a phase like this has ever recovered. Not even in a century. |
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| ▲ | davidw 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I won't give in to doomerism. Germany, Italy and Japan are all wealthy, stable democracies right now. Not without their problems and baggage, but pleasant places in a lot of ways. |
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| ▲ | mobilefriendly 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | All three have active US military bases on their soil and enjoy the economic surplus of living under the US defense umbrella. | | |
| ▲ | davidw 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The post WWII system was imperfect in many ways, but it was also mutually beneficial and worked out pretty well despite the problems. And we're throwing that all out the window. US military bases aren't what made those countries modern, prosperous, democratic places. It took the will of the people to rebuild something better after the war. | |
| ▲ | bonsai_spool 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Britain essentially ceded its bases to the US at the end of WWII - these things aren’t as durable as they may seem. |
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| ▲ | micromacrofoot 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | They got bombed to shit first | | |
| ▲ | davidw 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | It'd be nice to avoid that part. | | |
| ▲ | Fischgericht 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Then it won't work. The current iteration of Germany is fully based on having been bombed to get a fresh start. If you already have something, you won't change it. If you have to re-build, you will implement improvements. No bombs, no reset, no joy. | | |
| ▲ | davidw 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I am less confident about my predictions for an uncertain future. There's all kinds of ways different things could go. I didn't say we needed to follow their example to the letter; it was just one counterexample to the "woe and ruin for 100 years" comment. | | |
| ▲ | Fischgericht 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, but it is actually scientifically correct and proven on all sorts of layers. Biology, Maths, whatever. Not doomsdaying, just data analytics. Societies are not operating like a sinus curve like say summer/winter cycles. They are upside-down "U"s. After the peak comes decline, but after the decline there is NOT recovery/growth again before you have a reset. Germany was the huge winner of WW2 in the sense that after having had a high society they directly were allowed to get another such run. But as nobody wants to bomb us ) anymore, Germany is also in decline now waiting for a reset to come one day... Sadly the USA will also need a reset before things can begin getting better again. ) I was born in Germany and lived there for 40 years. |
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| ▲ | scottyah 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Ok what about the Netherlands, Spain, Nordic countries? | | |
| ▲ | Fischgericht 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Very different countries. The Netherlands for example got their last reset by completely losing the Dutch empire. Also, some societies have flatter curves than others. That really maps 1:1 to your style and culture of living and where the priorities are. If your priorities are to be the best as fast as possible (Germany) you will have less time between resets. If your priorities are "let's chill and wait until the coconut falls from the tree into my hand", your society might be able to have a far longer time between resets. But in the end: It's an iterative process. Which means: There must be iterations. | | |
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| ▲ | protocolture 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | James May did a documentary loosely based on this. "The Peoples Car" Basically analysing the economies of WW2 participants via their automobile industries. Its staggering how being bombed into the ground has forced technological and economic innovation. And how the inverse, being the bomber, has created stagnation. | |
| ▲ | galangalalgol 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't think it would matter even if the us did have to start again. The entire us alliance after ww2 benefited from the same structural causes of increased pluralism and egalitarianism. A fractured elite, complex international trade, expanding and increasingly difficult to control communication channels, and a growing bureaucracy. These all inhibit autocratic concentration of power. International trade became uncomplicated, there is one manufacturer that is not a consumer, and many consumers. This leads to an increasingly less fractured elite. The structural reasons for democracy and rules based order are all fading. The us is just a really big canary. | |
| ▲ | pear01 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Congress is the problem, but not in the way most describe. Congress has abdicated its powers because as an institution it is broken. Several inland states with total state wide populations less than that of major metro areas on the coasts have the same amount of senators as every other state has - two. This means voters in a lot of states are over represented. Meanwhile, they say land doesn't vote, but in the United States Senate the cities and localities with the most people that drive much of our growth and dynamism are severely underrepresented. The upper and most important chamber of the Congress is thus undemocratic. Given it's an institution deeply susceptible to minority gridlock that depends on wide margins to do anything, well now more often than not it simply does nothing. An imperial presidency thus frankly becomes the only way the country can actually get most things done. This two senators for every state arrangement was a compromise agreed to when constitutional ratification was in doubt, when the USA was a weak, newborn country of about 3 million people confined to the Eastern seaboard at a time in our history where our most pressing concern was being recolonized by European powers. The British burned down the White House in 1812 imagine what more they could have accomplished if the constitutional compromises that strengthened the union had not been agreed to. This compromise has outlived its usefulness. No American today fears a Spanish armada or British regulars bearing torches. These difficult compromises at the heart of America already led to one civil war. The best we can do is create a broad political movement that entertains as many incriminations as possible (probably around corruption/Epstein, which must make pains to avoid any distinction between say a Bill Clinton or a Donald Trump) so we can get past partisan bickering to get enough of mass movement to try to usher in a new age of constitutional amendment and reform. If it doesn't happen this cycle of Obama Trump Biden Trump will continue until this country elects someone who makes Trump look like a saint. It can happen. Think of how Trump rehabilitated Bush. We already see the trend getting worse. And if it does, then the post WWII Germany style reset being mentioned here will then become inevitable. | |
| ▲ | King-Aaron 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The people running the show are all building generational fallout shelters in new zealand. As seems to be the real 'whitehouse ballroom' plan too. They seem to be expecting that part. |
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| ▲ | inigyou 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] | | |
| ▲ | popalchemist 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Japan's economics are mostly rooted in population issues. Have you ever been? Even though wages are stagnant, the people are among the healthiest in the world and they're known for the way their society's public services ACTUALLY work. Not sure about Italy, but Germany, while not without its problems, is a beacon of democracy, progressivism, and self-correction. | |
| ▲ | lovich 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Germany is still extremely weird about anything to do with Jews > I've never been to Italy but they don't seem very productive either. Ok green poster. You need to look up more about world economies if you are going to confidently say things like Italy isn’t that productive. Combined with your comment on Jews in Germany I just assume you’re here to push propaganda, but if not please read up more on Italian economic output compared to, I don’t know, maybe the G7 countries? |
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| ▲ | Dumblydorr 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That’s just historically inaccurate. You had massive upheavals across numerous countries throughout time, this is small in comparison to the civil war’s impact on the USA for instance. You think this is worse than half the government rebelling and revolting and killing an amount of young men that today would be equivalent to 6 million deaths? It’s bad now but your comment lacks historical evidence. |
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| ▲ | IAmGraydon a minute ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is a laughably ridiculous assertion. |
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| ▲ | jonplackett 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| China seems to have recovered pretty well. |
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| ▲ | AuthAuth 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not really. China only seems good because there is a war in Europe and the US is shooting themself in the foot. They're polluting and strip mining their country, suppressing wages and funneling the profit into companies all while increasing surveillance and decreasing freedom of opinion. Oh but they put down a few solar panels and then paid for people to write articles about it. | | |
| ▲ | davidw 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Their economy lifted a bunch of people out of poverty. That's positive. However, in terms of 'democracy' they're still way worse off than the US right now, even if the US is headed in a bad direction. | | |
| ▲ | wraptile 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Their economy lifted a bunch of people out of poverty This is fallacious as every economy that started at extreme poverty lifted a bunch of people out of poverty. Unless we invent a time machine and do an A|B test we can't really attribute the success to policy when _any_ policy would have clearly lifted out a bunch of people out of poverty (basically almost impossible to not go up from extreme deficit). The closest we can do is look at similar scenarios like Taiwan which also lifted a bunch of people from poverty while retaining more human rights. | | |
| ▲ | davidw 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Plenty of places have managed to "keep on keepin' on" with their poverty levels. I'm not saying what they've done was the best way, only way or anything of that sort: only that it happened. |
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| ▲ | Barrin92 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >Oh but they put down a few solar panels the few solar panels in question are a united kingdom worth of green energy each year, about a royal navy worth of marine tonnage every two and they lifted more people out of poverty over the span of two generations than most of the rest of the world combined. Shenzhen produces about 70% of the entire world's consumer drones, now the primary weapon on both sides of the largest military conflict in the world. Xiaomi, a company founded in 2010 15 years ago decided to make electric cars in 2021 and is now successfully selling them. As Adam Tooze has pointed out it's the single most transformative place in the world, if you're not trying to learn from it you're choosing to ignore the most important place in the 21st century for ideological reasons | |
| ▲ | bamboozled 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I used to pretend China wasn't absolutely smashing the USA, but it looks like it is. They basically make everything modern civilization relies on, that's an insane amount of leverage over the rest of the world. That combined with renewables and nuclear and their diminishing need for foreign oil because of that is pretty incredible. | |
| ▲ | idiotsecant 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | They're also speedrunning a world class power distribution system and deploying a massive amount of renewable power amoung a whole mess of other infrastructure. They've got the ability to focus an entire nation into achieving technical goals and they're rapidly improving quality of life in average while maintaining an industrial base that the US can only remember fondly. They might not meet western standards for individual freedoms and rule of law, but they're undoubtedly a rising world power. | |
| ▲ | lanfeust6 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This doesn't make much sense. Since the late 19th century, every country that got rich also heavily polluted the environment, though increasingly less over time. As it stands, fossil fuel demand in China has plateaued. The "wage suppression" thing also doesn't track; their citizens got much, much richer since Nixon's visit, despite being on average poorer than Westerners. Their GDP per capita is low because there's like a billion of them in the country. The only thing to say is that it's still authoritarian. Once that gets a hold of a country, it's very difficult to shed off. Interestingly, both South Korea and Singapore shifted away from being dictatorships and were not ideologically socialist. Countries taken over by Communists remain authoritarian. The true believers will never give that up. | | |
| ▲ | davidw 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Agree with much of this. However: plenty of Central/Eastern European countries seem like they have pretty definitively shaken off communism in favor of pretty standard European style capitalism/social democracy. | | |
| ▲ | lanfeust6 17 minutes ago | parent [-] | | That is true, though I chalk some of that up to disdain for Russian imperialism/colonialism, and bargaining to remain out of its influence |
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| ▲ | grvbck 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > They're polluting They absolutely are, but per capita, USA is polluting 49.67 % more than China. Source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/carbon-fo... |
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| ▲ | tsunamifury 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Rome was 'in decline' for 1000 years... these things are mostly feel good blather and not realistic statements on the position of nations |
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| ▲ | gbnwl 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Is this a joke that’s going over my head? The country we all know the term “century of humiliation” from has recovered and is literally a superpower right now? |