| ▲ | criddell 4 hours ago |
| Have you moved your retirement account money out of stocks and index funds into something safer? I've actually been thinking about it... |
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| ▲ | throwfaraway4 6 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| The Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. |
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| ▲ | marcyb5st 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I did. I moved to sovereign debt (not US), bonds and stocks of boring companies (staples, energy, medicine, ...) that have at least AA rating. Might miss out a few months of glamorous growth, but fuck that, it reached a point that just one company hiccuping will send the whole thing tumbling (IMHO). |
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| ▲ | criddell 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Energy and healthcare has big AI exposure too. If it pops, you're going to be better off but not totally spared. I suppose that's probably a smart move though... | | |
| ▲ | marcyb5st 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Fair enough and thank you for the comment. I went with a bit of Roche, Novartis, ... So something that would at least cushion the fall with dividends and not being in the GenAI crossfire since they definitely use AI/ML (I got them through an ETF). Also almost all my assets are now either CHF or Euro denominated/hedged. I am also not comfortable with the dollar weakening and the next Fed head probably cutting rates again like Trump wishes |
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| ▲ | baggachipz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yes. Went from 100% S&P500 fund into a gold ETF and a high-dividend fund (SCHD). Still a good portion in S&P but gotta hedge some. |
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| ▲ | qwerpy 27 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | How do you handle the capital gains taxes? I’d love to be able to rebalance the massive S&P 500 portion of my portfolio into other things but it would trigger huge federal and state taxes. Was hoping to hold on to these until retirement at which point I’d slowly be selling it for living expenses and the income taxes would be much smaller. | |
| ▲ | sethops1 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Similar. Went from near 100% VOO down to 25%, with about 50% in SCHD and the remaining 25% sitting on cash, for now. | |
| ▲ | criddell 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Is high-dividend a signal that the equities are more value oriented than growth oriented? | | |
| ▲ | baggachipz 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yep, the fund picks the equities with the highest dividend payout, therfore the most value-oriented. Those tend to be old blue chips which have stood the test of time and pay out well to their shareholders. Lockheed Martin, Merck, Coca Cola, etc. When the growth economy tanks, it's an oasis of relative stability. People love their cheap sugar water. |
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| ▲ | hypeatei 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Valuations really aren't that crazy, but the incestuous deals between Nvidia, Oracle, and OpenAI might cause a decent correction. I'm not too worried about my portfolio personally. It'll be a small bump in the road and you're better off not trying to time the market. |
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| ▲ | SecretDreams 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Valuations really aren't that crazy Okay | | |
| ▲ | hypeatei 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | What public company is massively overvalued in your opinion? Nvidia right now is trading at 44 P/E which is higher than the S&P average, sure, but not anything like the dotcom bubble with a median of 120x earnings. | | |
| ▲ | B56b 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | The problem with this hype cycle has always been that the hyperscalers are pouring unbelievable amounts of capital into a technology that hasn't proven it can generate the revenues needed to justify that. Nvidia might have an ok P/E right now, but the question is if the industry can sustain buying over $50B of GPUs every quarter(or that it even needs to). | | |
| ▲ | SecretDreams 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | This exactly. How sustainable are the current spends in the wake of needing ROI against these spends in the not too distant future? And who will be able to afford an upgrade cycle only 2-3 years from now given none of the capex spent will have hit positive ROI 2-3 years out. Will everyone just accept negative ROI in the name of hype? Will scalers be able to meaningfully increase service prices without eroding customer interest? These are all unanswered questions that a simple PE statement can't support. |
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| ▲ | moduspol 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yep. And I've already moved it back. I think we can all see this is a bubble, but it has been for over a year now, and I cannot predict when it will pop. Also, there aren't a ton of great options that are safer. |
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| ▲ | 2OEH8eoCRo0 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| No for a few reasons. I'm not close to retiring, I already own a good deal of bonds, and moving money based on emotion defeats the purpose. I rebalanced the same as I always have. |
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| ▲ | unethical_ban an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I thought about it. The bulk of my 401k money is in a growth fund that i found has something like 30% in the big tech companies. Then again, I'm 20+ years from accessing it, so I figure I'm about 5 years out from moving more to S&P tracking and bonds. I am not a financial advisor. |
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| ▲ | toomuchtodo 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Enough VXUS to minimize the impact of Mag 7 exuberance on my portfolio. |
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| ▲ | catsquirrel28 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'm not so sure VXUS will protect from the AI bubble popping since ~10% of its holdings are TSMC, ASML, Samsung, Tencent, Alibaba, and SK Hynix which are all way overvalued due to the AI bubble and will most likely crater when it becomes clear the LLM companies have no business and the data center lenders start calling in their debts. | | |
| ▲ | toomuchtodo 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Those companies had baseline demand before the AI bubble. They will have demand after. | | |
| ▲ | catsquirrel28 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Sure, they won't go to 0 but they will certainly go down once it becomes clear the LLM companies don't have money to pay for chips or RAM. That will cause VXUS to go down as well but much it goes down is anyone's guess. |
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| ▲ | kronks 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| To anyone reading, don’t do this. This is the ONE thing you aren’t supposed to do as a passive investor. A play like this will cause you to lose upside almost always, and some people never get back in and miss out on almost a lifetime of growth. THE MARKETS ARE NOT RATIONAL. |
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| ▲ | criddell an hour ago | parent [-] | | My concern is shifting from maximizing upside to minimizing downside because I'm only about 10-12 years from retirement. |
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