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toomuchtodo 4 hours ago

Enough VXUS to minimize the impact of Mag 7 exuberance on my portfolio.

catsquirrel28 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm not so sure VXUS will protect from the AI bubble popping since ~10% of its holdings are TSMC, ASML, Samsung, Tencent, Alibaba, and SK Hynix which are all way overvalued due to the AI bubble and will most likely crater when it becomes clear the LLM companies have no business and the data center lenders start calling in their debts.

toomuchtodo 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Those companies had baseline demand before the AI bubble. They will have demand after.

catsquirrel28 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Sure, they won't go to 0 but they will certainly go down once it becomes clear the LLM companies don't have money to pay for chips or RAM. That will cause VXUS to go down as well but much it goes down is anyone's guess.

toomuchtodo an hour ago | parent [-]

Drawdown will be limited compared to the S&P500 or other indexes that weight the Mag 7 heavily. I'm unsure what your point is? It's impossible to predict the future, but it is trivial and straightforward to derisk against this current market environment ("AI bubble") with a basic level of capital market understanding.