Neither of you know the answer to this, in any scientific or statistical manner, and I wish people would stop being so confident about it.

If I'm wrong, please give any kind of citation. You can start with defining what human intelligence and sentience is.

My argument is that we are getting closer, not that we know exactly what AGI will be. That is clearly part of it right? If we had some boolean definition I suspect we would already be there. Figuring it out is a big part of getting there. I think my points still stand based on this. We aren't there yet but it is hard to deny that these things are growing from a complexity/capability standpoint. On a spectrum from rock to human level intelligence, these are getting closer to human and further from rock and getting further from rock every day.