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ddtaylor 14 hours ago

Labor substitution is extremely difficult and almost everybody hand waves it away.

Take even the most unskilled labor that people can think about such as flipping a burger at a restaurant like McDonald's. In reality that job is multiple different roles mixed into one that are constantly changing. Multiple companies have experimented with machines and robots to perform this task all with very limited success and none with any proper economics.

Let's be charitable and assume that this type of fast food worker gets paid $50,000 a year. For that job to be displaced it needs to be performed by a robot that can be acquired for a reasonable capital expenditure such as $200,000 and requires no maintenance, upkeep, or subscription fees.

This is a complete non-reality in the restaurant industry. Every piece of equipment they have cost them significant amounts and ongoing maintenance even if it's the most basic equipment such as a grill or a fryer. The reality is that they pay service technicians and professionals a lot of money to keep that equipment barely working.

iberator 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I lost my job as a software developer some time ago.

Flipping burgers is WAY more demanding than I ever imagined. That's the danger of AI:

It takes jobs faster than creating new ones PLUS for some fields (like software development) downshifting to just about anything else is brutal and sometimes simply not doable.

Forget becoming manager at McDonald's or be even good at flipping burgers at the age of 40: you are competing with 20yr olds doing sports with amazing coordination etc

parpfish 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There’s the issue of the job itself being more demanding, but also the managers in “low skilled” jobs being ultra-demanding petty dictators.

As a white collar computer guy, I can waste some time on Reddit. Or go for a walk and grab coffee. Or let people know that I’m heading out for a couple of hours to go to the doctor. There are a LOT of little freedoms tha you take for granted if you haven’t worked a shitty minimum wage job. Getting on trouble for punching in one minute late, not being allowed to sit down, socializing too much when you’re not on a break.

I’m pretty sure that most tech employees would just quit when encountering a manager like that

sarchertech 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Forget becoming manager at McDonald's or be even good at flipping burgers at the age of 40: you are competing with 20yr olds doing sports with amazing coordination etc

I have no idea what in the world you are talking about. Most 20 year olds working at McDonald’s are stoned and move at half a mile an hour whether it’s a lunch rush or it’s 2am. I worked retail for years before I finally switched full time to programming. It’s certainly not full of amazing motivated athletes with excellent coordination. You’re lucky if most of them can show up to work on time more than half the time.

booleandilemma 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Do you really wanna be competing with those people though? I'll be honest, I don't even want to be in the same room as them.

Borg3 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Ugh.. sorry to hear :( I am myself unemployed right now. Its really hard to land a job in tech.. Luicky, I dont need to flip burgers for now...

fragmede 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Who's gonna play you to flip burgers with no experience doing it and everyone else needing a job as well?

wombatpm 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Who’s buying $6.00 burgers when the old customers have been replaced by AI?

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

There is a huge demand for low-skill labor in other industries. Stuff like plumbing, HVAC, and a ton of other traditionally unsexy jobs that can barely keep enough people in a town to perform these jobs at higher costs than normal.

uxcolumbo 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I wouldn’t call plumbing and other trades low skill.

ddtaylor 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I agree. I didn't mean to disparage anyone. I have a massive appreciation (and some involvement!) in these trades. The amount of knowledge these guys have about their trade is impressive.

paulryanrogers 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Those jobs don't often pay well until you graduate out of journeyman / apprentice, or are a business owner. They usually require some training and testing ahead of time. They also carry a higher risk of serious injury or death.

ddtaylor 7 hours ago | parent [-]

The average salary for a software developer in Montana is $88k/yr. The average salary for an HVAC technician in Montana is $58k/yr.

The average salary for a software developer in Oregon is $118k/yr. The average salary for an HVAC technician in Oregon is $74k/yr.

It's for sure less, but the gap is smaller than some might think. I think some markets (SF) distort the cost a bit.

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I have worked in the restaurant industry within the last 5 years and I'm probably older than you.

password54321 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>the most unskilled labor

People are worried about white-collar not blue-collar jobs being replaced. Robotics is obviously a whole different field from AI.

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Robotics is obviously a whole different field from AI

I agree, but people are conflating the two. We have seen a lot of advancements in robotics, but as of current that only makes the economics worse. We're not seeing the complexity of robots going down and we're seeing the R&D costs going up, etc.

If it didn't make sense a few years ago to buy a crappy robot that can barely do the task because your business will never make money doing it, it probably doesn't make sense this year to buy a robot that still can't accomplish the tasks and is more expensive.

Morromist 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah, although in the "Something big is happening" Shumer did say at the end "Eventually, robots will handle physical work too. They're not quite there yet. But "not quite there yet" in AI terms has a way of becoming "here" faster than anyone expects."

Being the hype-man that he is I assume he meant humanoid robots - I think he's being silly here, and the sentence made me roll my eyes.

beeflet 9 hours ago | parent [-]

what difference does it make if the robots are humanoid or not?

It merely reflects the designer's willingness to engage in sci-fi tropes.

mattlondon 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Jobs that require physical effort will be fine for the reasons you state

Any job that is predominantly done on a computer though is at risk IMO. AI might not completely take over everything, but I think we'll see way fewer humans managing/orchestrating larger and larger fleets of agents.

Instead of say 20 people doing some function, you'll have 3 or 4 prompting away to manage the agents to get the same amount of work done as 20 people did before.

So the people flipping the burgers and serving the customers will be safe, but the accountants and marketing folks won't be.

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent [-]

> So the people flipping the burgers and serving the customers will be safe, but the accountants and marketing folks won't be.

And that's probably something most people are okay with. Work that can be automated should be and humans should be spending their time on novel things instead of labor if possible.

kristiandupont 2 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

>And that's probably something most people are okay with

You think most people are okay with most white collar jobs disappearing? I certainly am not, personally.

techpression 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What society is ready for that? We are looking at an possible outcome that will make the Great Depression look like a strong financial era of growth and prosperity. I don’t think most people are ok with the road to the goal in this case, doesn’t matter if you have work or not, mass unemployment destroys societies.

ddtaylor 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> What society is ready for that?

A free society.

mercanlIl 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I interpreted the parent comment as asking what society _specifically_? Not some abstract concept, but something that exists a step or two away from where we are right now.

techpression an hour ago | parent [-]

That is correct, living in Sweden with pretty high levels of social protection, but even so, high levels of white collar unemployment would make our very high risk housing market (we as a population has a very high loan ratio, much of it committed to housing) collapse once people can’t pay. That would make the banks likely to collapse because their money no longer exist and they’re all of a sudden real estate brokers with inventory far below what they paid out in loans. Union coffers would deplete fast, there would be no blue collar work so they also get dragged in with the storm. Oh and of course, the stock exchange will crash completely.

Covid gave us a glimpse, this would make it look like child’s play, because there’s no solution and it’s not getting better.

The rich will of course get richer, even if absolute value goes down, the relative value of their wealth will go up.

beeflet 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

all jobs will be automatable, and there will be no room for humans to work on novel things.

ddtaylor 8 hours ago | parent [-]

That's like saying we shouldn't push the space exploration boundary because people are so used to staying within it.

If you want to make the argument that singularity has occurred and that knowledge oracles are no longer needed, that's a bold claim.

If you want to make the argument it would escape our control, etc. that's a valid argument for proper controls.

If you want to make the argument that LLMs are sentient and that it's not ethical to "enslave" them, that's also a pretty bold stance currently.

Humans have been inventing technology and improving the quality of life (of our species!) for a very long time and that strategy hasn't changed IMO

beeflet 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm not saying any of that I am just saying that you and everyone you love will be killed by this technology and the world as we know it will be destroyed.

ddtaylor 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Why do you think humans automating more things destroys us? Did the calculator or horse and buggy make us obsolete?

Why didn't the Internet cause a massive death plague?

slavoingilizov 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Can you walk me through this argument for a customer service agent? The jobs where the nuance and variety isn’t there and don’t involve physical interaction are completely different to flipping burgers

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent [-]

A customer service agent that can be automated should be, but it's not working right now. Most support systems are designed to offload as much work as possible to the automated funnel, which almost always has gaps, loops, etc. The result is customers who want to pay for something or use something that get "stuck" being unable to throw money at a company. Right now the cost of fraud is much greater than the cost of these uncaptured sales or lost customers.

Eventually that will change and the role of a customer service agent will be redefined.

tsss 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The burger cook job has already been displaced and continues to be. Pre-1940s those burger restaurants relied on skilled cooks that got their meat from a butcher and cut fresh lettuce every day. Post-1940s the cooking process has increasingly become assembly-lined and cooks have been replaced by unskilled labor. Much of the cooking process _is_ now done by robots in factories at a massive scale and the on-premise employees do little else than heat it up. In the past 10 years, automation has further increased and the cashiers have largely been replaced by self-order terminals so that employees no longer even need to speak rudimentary English. In conclusion, both the required skill-level and amount of labor needed for restaurants has been reduced drastically by automation and in fact many higher skilled trade jobs have been hit even harder: cabinetmakers, coachbuilders and such have been almost eradicated by mass production.

It will happen to you.

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent [-]

> and the on-premise employees do little else than heat it up

This is correct. This also is a lot more complex than it sounds and creates a lot of work. Cooking those products creates byproducts that must be handled.

> and the cashiers have largely been replaced by self-order terminals so that employees no longer even need to speak rudimentary English

Yet most of the customers still have to interact with an employee because "the kiosk won't let me". Want to add Mac sauce? Get the wrong order in the bag? Machine took payment but is out of receipt paper? Add up all these "edge cases" and a significant amount of these "contactless" transactions involved plenty of contact!

> It will happen to you.

Any labor that can be automated should be. Humans are not supposed to spend their time doing meaningless tasks without a purpose beyond making an imaginary number go up or down.

saulpw 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Cooking those products creates byproducts that must be handled.

Okay so the job of "cook" just became "grease disposal engineer"?

> Yet most of the customers still have to interact with an employee because "the kiosk won't let me"

That hasn't stopped some places I've visited from only allowing people to order from the kiosk. Literally I've said something to the person behind the counter who pointed to the iPad and when I said I wanted something else, shrugged and said we can't do that.

ddtaylor 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Okay so the job of "cook" just became "grease disposal engineer"?

That is the current way the job works. The idea that even the most basic "burger flipper" job is isolated into a single dimension (flipping a burger) is false. That worker has to get supplies, prepare ingredients, stage them between cooking, dispose of waste product, etc.

> Literally I've said something to the person behind the counter who pointed to the iPad and when I said I wanted something else, shrugged and said we can't do that.

That's because corporate told them to maximize kiosk usage or because the employee was lazy. That's always going to happen. The McDonalds in Union Station DC has broken glass on the floor, because it's a shithole and the employees don't care, but it means not much else IMO

Der_Einzige 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Funny, I go to South Korea and the fast food burger joints literally operate exactly as you say they couldn't. I've had the best burger in my life from a McDonalds in South Korea operated practically by robots.

It's a non reality in America's extremely piss poor restaurant industry. We have a competency crisis (the big key here) and worker shortage that SK doesn't, and they have far higher trust in their society.

ddtaylor 11 hours ago | parent [-]

> McDonald’s global CEO has famously stated that while they invest in "advanced kitchen equipment," full robotic kitchens aren't a broad reality yet because "the economics don't pencil out" for their massive scale.

> While a highly automated McDonald’s in South Korea (or the experimental "small format" store in Texas) might look empty, the total headcount remains surprisingly similar to a standard restaurant