Remix.run Logo
xnx 6 hours ago

Waymo is absolutely delighting in their luck that Elon is so stubborn that he has kept Tesla from being anywhere close to catching up.

youarentrightjr 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

According to Elon, "sensor ambiguity" is a danger to the process [1], and therefore only a single type of sensor is allowed. (Conveniently ignores that there can be ambiguity/disagreement between two instances of the same type of sensor)

The fact that people still trust him on literally anything boggles my mind.

[1] https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1959831831668228450

jacquesm an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Sensor fusion allows you to resolve that ambiguity, I wonder if Elon is really as in touch with this as you would expect. No single sensor is perfect, they all have their problematic areas and a good sensor fusion scheme allows you to have your sensors reinforce each other in such a way that each operates as close as possible to their area of strength.

No single sensor can ever give you that kind of resilience. Sure, it is easy in that you never have ambiguity, but that means that when you're wrong there is also nothing to catch you to indicate something might be up.

This goes for any system where you have such a limited set of inputs that you never reach quorum the basic idea is to have enough sensors that you always have quorum, and to treat the absence of quorum as a very high priority failure.

girvo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sensor ambiguity is straight up useful as it can allow you to extract signals that neither sensor can fully capture. This is like... basic stuff too, absolutely wild how he's the richest person in the world and considered this absolute genius

youarentrightjr 10 minutes ago | parent [-]

Agreed, anyone who has worked on engineering a moderately complex system involving sensing has explored the power of multi domain sensing... without sensor fusion we'd be in the stone ages.

xnx 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Truly. I don't understand why Tesla fans think camera/lidar fusion is unsolvable but camera/camera fusion is a non-issue.

hamdingers 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Because they bought a Tesla with only cameras on it.

Admitting this would be admitting their Tesla will never be self driving.

baggachipz an hour ago | parent | next [-]

I bought mine with cameras and a radar, which they then deprecated and left an unused. Even though autopilot was better when it had radar. Then I realized that this thing would never be self-driving and that its CEO was throwing nazi salutes. Cut my losses and got rid of it. Gotta admit defeat sometimes.

xnx 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Add a tow hitch to Waymos and any car can be autonomous!

wat10000 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Do Tesla fans think that? I've seen plenty of Tesla fans say that lidar is unnecessary (which I tend to agree with), but never that lidar is actively detrimental as Musk says there.

SoftTalker 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I mean, humans have only their eyes. And most of them intentionally distract themselves while driving by listening to music, podcasts, playing with their phones, or eating.

nrclark 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I get your point about camera vs lidar. Humans do have other senses in play while driving though. We have touch/vibration (feeling the road surface texture), hearing, proprioception / acceleration sense, etc. These are all involved for me when I drive a car.

catigula 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

To be fair, humans are fairly poor drivers and generally can't be trusted to drive millions of miles safely.

nradov 34 minutes ago | parent [-]

Actually humans are fairly good drivers. The average US driver goes almost 2 million miles between causing injury collisions. Take the drunks and drug users out and the numbers for humans look even better.

catigula 6 minutes ago | parent [-]

Incorrect. Humans are fairly good engineers, so cars are pretty safe nowadays.

If you include minor fender-benders and unreported incidents, estimates drop to around 100,000–200,000 miles between any collision event.

This is cataclysmically bad for a designed system, which is why targets are super-human, not human.

torginus 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Personally as much as people like to dunk on Musk, he did build several successful companies in extremely challenging domains, and he probably listens to the world-leading domain experts in his employ.

So while he might turn out to be wrong, I don't think his opininon is uninformed.

_diyar 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I fully agree with your first point: Musk has shown tremendous ability to manage companies to become unicorns. He's clearly skilled in this domain.

However, if you think about this for 2 seconds with even a rudimentary understanding of sensor fusion, more hardware is always better (ofc with diminishing marginal value).

But ~10y ago, when Tesla was in a financial pinch, Musk decided to scrap as much hardware as possible to save on operational cost and complexity. The argument about "humans can drive with vision only, so self-driving should be able to as well" served as the excuse to shareholders.

azinman2 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What doesn’t make sense to me is that the cameras are no where as good as human eyes. The dynamic range sucks, it doesn’t put down a visor or where sunglasses to deal with beaming light, resolution is much worse, etc. why not invest in the cameras themselves if this is your claim?

Veserv 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Especially the part where the cameras do not meet minimum vision requirements [1] in many states where it operates such as California and Texas.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43605034

Rohansi 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I always see this argument but from experience I don't buy it. FSD and its cameras work fine driving with the sun directly in front of the car. When driving manually I need the visor so far down I can only see the bottom of the car in front of me.

The cameras on Teslas only really lose visibility when dirty. Especially in winter when there's salt everywhere. Only the very latest models (2025+?) have decent self-cleaning for the cameras that get very dirty.

jeffbee 3 hours ago | parent [-]

FSD doesn't "work fine" driving directly into the sun. There are loads of YT videos that demonstrate this.

Rohansi 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

For which car? The older the car (hardware) version the worse it is. I've never had any front camera blinding issues with a 2022 car (HW3).

The thing to remember about cameras is what you see in an image/display is not what the camera sees. Processing the image reduces the dynamic range but FSD could work off of the raw sensor data.

llsf 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

And to some extent, I also drive with my ears, not only with 2 eyes. I often can ear a car driving on the blind spot. Not saying that I do need to ear in order to drive, but the extra sensor is welcome when it can helps.

There is an argument for sure, about how many sensors is enough / too much. And maybe 8 cameras around the car is enough to surpass human driving ability.

I guess it depends on how far/secure we want the self-driving to be. If only we had a comprehensive driving test that all (humans and robots) could take and be ranked... each country lawmakers could set the bar based on the test.

_diyar an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Nuanced point: Even if vision alone were sufficient to drive, adding sensors to the cars today could speed up development. Tesla‘s world model could be improved, speeding up development of the vision only model that is truly autonomous.

tux1968 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The other day I slammed the brakes at a green light, because I could hear sirens approaching -- even though the buildings on the corner prevented any view of the approaching fire trucks or their flashing lights. Do Teslas not have this ability?

_diyar an hour ago | parent [-]

I don‘t know whether Tesla‘s self-driving mode could do that.

However, notice that deaf people are allowed to drive, ie. you are not expected to be able to have full hearing to be allowed on the road.

iwontberude 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think his companies succeeded despite Elon. Tesla should be a $5T company and he fucked it up.

_diyar an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Stongly disagree. I don‘t like the fella but thinking that he founds and successfully manages SpaceX and Tesla to their market value _by chance_ is ridiculous.

gulfofamerica 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

wolrah 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> I fully agree with your first point: Musk has shown tremendous ability to manage companies to become unicorns. He's clearly skilled in this domain.

I would firmly disagree with that.

What Musk has done is bring money to develop technologies that were generally considered possible, but were being ignored by industry incumbents because they were long-term development projects that would not be profitable for years. When he brings money to good engineers and lets them do their thing, pretty good things happen. The Tesla Roadster, Model S, Falcon 9, Starlink, etc.

The problem with him is he's convinced that he is also a good engineer, and not only that but he's better than anyone that works for him, and that has definitively been proven wrong. The more he takes charge, the worse it gets. The Model X's stupid doors, all the factory insanity, the outdoor paint tent, etc. Model 3 and Model Y arguably succeeded in spite of his interference, but the Dumpstertruck was his baby and we can all see how that has basically only sold to people who want to associate themselves closely with his politics because it's objectively bad at everything else. The constant claims that Tesla cars will drive themselves, the absolute bullshit that is calling it "Full Self Driving", the hilarious claims of humanoid robots being useful, etc. How are those solar roofs coming? Have you heard of anyone installing a Powerwall recently? Heard anything about Roadster 2.0 since he went off claiming it would be able to fly? A bunch of Canadian truckers have built their own hybrid logging trucks from scratch in the time since Tesla started taking money for their semis and we still haven't seen the Tesla trucks haul more than a bunch of bags of chips.

The more Musk is personally involved with a project the worse it is. The man is useful for two things: Providing capital and blatantly lying to hype investors.

If he had stuck to the first one the world as a whole would be a better place, Tesla would probably be in a much better position right now.

SpaceX was for a long time considered to be further from his influence with Shotwell running the company well and Musk acting more as a spokesperson. Starship is sort of his Model X moment and the plans to merge in the AI business will IMO be the Cybertruck.

_diyar an hour ago | parent | next [-]

You say that you disagree with my point, but then your first paragraph just restates my argument. And your subsequent paragraphs don‘t refer to my comment at all.

I never claimed he‘s a good engineer, nor that he has high EQ, nor that he is honest, nor that he has sole responsibility for the success of his companies.

rgmerk an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Home batteries are being installed at insane rates in Australia at the moment. Very few of them are Powerwalls because Tesla have priced themselves out of the market (and also Elon’s reputation is toast).

lateforwork 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

His autopilot has killed several people, sometimes the owner of the car, sometimes other drivers sharing the road. It is hard to root for this guy.

netsharc 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The fact that people still trust him on literally anything boggles my mind.

Long-distance amateur psychology question: I wonder if he's convinced himself that he's a smart guy, after all he's got 12 digits in his net worth, "How would that have been possible if I were an idiot?".

Anyway, ego protection is how people still defend things like the Maga regime, or the genocide; it's hard for someone to admit that they've been stupid enough to have been fooled to vote for "Idi Amin in whiteface" (term coined by Literature Nobel Prize winner Wole Soyinka), or that the "nation's right to self-defense" they've been defending was a thin excuse for mass murder of innocents.

weirdmantis69 19 minutes ago | parent [-]

I've always wondered how people who are not 1/10th as smart as Elon convince themselves that he is not intelligent after solving robotics, AI, neuralink, and space all simultaneously.

BurningFrog 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I certainly don't trust anything he says 100%.

This is - to me - entirely separate from the fact that his companies routinely revolutionize industries.

FireBeyond 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Well, given that Elon openly lies on investor calls...

One of his latest, on the topic of rain/snow/mist/fog and handling with cameras:

"Well, we have made that a non-issue as we actually do photon counting in the cameras, which solves that problem."

No, Elon, you don't. For two reasons: reason one, part A, the types of cameras that do photon counting don't work well for normal 'vision'/imagery associated with cameras, and part B, are not actually present in your cars at all. And reason two, photon counting requires the camera being in an enclosed space to work, which cars on the road ... aren't.

What Elon has mastered the art of is making statements that sound informed, pass the BS detector of laypeople, and optionally are also plausibly deniable if actually called out by an SME.

stefan_ 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If only there was a filter so we could fuse different sensor measurements into a better whole..

0xffff2 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't thing it's purely stubbornness. Tesla sold the promise of software only updates resulting in FSD to hundreds of thousands of people. Not all of those people are in the cult of Tesla. I would expect admitting defeat at this point would result in a large class action lawsuit at the very least.

fhd2 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It wouldn't keep them from equipping _new_ models with additional sensors, spinning a story around how this helps them train the camera-only AI, or whatever.

inerte 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I know it's "illegal" and technically sold as FSD (assisted), but just 2 days ago I was in a friend's Model Y and it drove from work to my house (both in San Jose) without any steering wheel or pedal touch, at all. And he told me he went to Palm Springs like that too.

I shit on Tesla and Elon on any opportunity, and it's a shame they basically have the software out there doing things when it probably shouldn't, but I don't think they're that far behind Waymo where it really matters, which is the thing actually working.

sjsdaiuasgdia 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The terms of service probably require you to sue Tesla in that Texas district with his corrupt judge pal.

willio58 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Elon cult members still to this day will tell me that because humans only use vision to drive all a Tesla needs is simple cameras. Meanwhile, I've been driven by Waymo and Tesla FSD and Waymo is by far my pick for safety and comfort. I actually trusted the waymo I was in, while the Tesla I rode in we had 2 _very_ scary incidents at high speeds in a 1 hour drive.

jcalvinowens 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> humans only use vision to drive

I love this argument because it is so obviously wrong: how could any self aware person seriously argue that hearing, touch, and the inner ear aren't involved in their driving?

As an adult I can actually afford a reliable car, so I will concede that smell is less relevant than it used to be, at least for me personally :)

xnx 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> hearing, touch, and the inner ear aren't involved

Not to mention possibly the most complex structure in the known universe, the human brain: 86 billion neurons, 100 trillion connections.

ACCount37 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Human inner ear is worse than a $3 IMU in your average smartphone in literally every way. And that IMU also has a magnetometer in it.

Beating human sensors wasn't hard for over a decade now. The problem is that sensors are worthless. Self-driving lives and dies by AI - all the sensors need to be is "good enough".

Cold_Miserable an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Human hearing is excellent. Good directional perception and sensitivity. Eyesight is the weakest sense. Poor color sensitivity, low light sensitivity, blindspot. The terrible natural design flaws are compensated by natural nystagmas and the brain filling in the blanks.

jcalvinowens 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> The problem is that sensors are worthless

Well, in TFA the far more successful manufacturer of self driving cars is saying you're wrong. I think they're in much better position to know than you :)

kjksf 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

1. in US you can get a driver's license if you're deaf so as a society we think you can drive without hearing

2. since this is in context of Tesla: tesla cars do have microphones and FSD does use it for responding to sirens etc.

ibejoeb 5 hours ago | parent [-]

(1) is true, but actually driving is definitely harder without hearing or with diminished hearing. And Several US states, including CA, prohibit inhibiting hearing while driving, e.g., by wearing a headset, earbuds, or earplugs.

wat10000 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Involved? Yes. Necessary? Pretty sure no.

If it makes you happy, you can read "only vision" as "no lidar or radar." Cars already have microphones and IMUs.