Remix.run Logo
queuebert 3 hours ago

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

jandrewrogers 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The growing population of economically non-productive people requires a growing population of economically productive people to support them. At some point, you could take 100% of the output of the productive people and it would still not be enough to support retirees et al.

At the limit, not growing the productive population puts younger generations in a position of existing solely for the purpose of serving the non-productive population. At some point, they will simply choose to opt out and the whole thing collapses.

yoyohello13 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it's inevitable, the model is unsustainable and going to fail. In a finite world we can't have social models that rely on infinite growth. I'm sure the changing demographic is going to cause pain (probably right when I'm getting ready to retire), but historically pain is the real catalyst for change so maybe some good will come out of it.

izzydata 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But infinite population growth is unsustainable so it had to come to an equilibrium eventually. Maybe we overshot the maximum comfortable population by a bit and we are going to rebound for awhile.

Also an economy that requires an infinitely growing population feels like a pyramid scheme which is also an unsustainable system.

jpadkins 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> But infinite population growth is unsustainable

Only if we don't explore and colonize the stars. From what we know, the universe is infinite.

projektfu 23 minutes ago | parent [-]

How many years/generations are you willing to spend on a ship in the middle of space? Remember, Biodome didn't work. Are you going to join that prison for the off chance of your progeny occupying a land that we haven't even discovered yet?

And, before you suggest it, no, there will never be faster-than-light travel, and even relativistic travel is super unlikely.

neutronicus 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> But infinite population growth is unsustainable so it had to come to an equilibrium eventually.

Or not. It could be oscillatory and humanity could cyclically reverse-decimate itself while the descendants of the survivors get to enjoy millennia of the fun part of the pyramid scheme.

The big losers are whoever is part of the "perish in a holocaust" generations, and probably the first couple bootstrapper generations afterwards.

Windchaser an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> At some point, you could take 100% of the output of the productive people and it would still not be enough to support retirees et al.

But productivity for productive people is increasing. Is there an assumption that retiree spending is also going to increase to match?

Realistic solutions look something like: - we increase productivity of the working population - we lock or decrease the per-year, per-person spending on retirees - we decrease the % of their lives that people spend retired

danny_codes 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Or decrease handouts to the non-working population. Maybe we cannot afford to keep seniors in their SFHs driving everywhere.

hackable_sand an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Cool where do I sign to opt out?

3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]
seanmcdirmid 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We need young people to pay for old people retirement (economically speaking, someone has to be working when someone else is just eating).

mmastrac 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

compounding_it 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Don't know about inverting the pyramid but we may get more pyramid schemes. Like Google and Oracle doing 100 year bonds for AI.

MyHonestOpinon an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the solution is in adjusting our ways of life. Simpler living, smaller houses and more density, being able to walk and bike, shared common areas, increase health span, being able to live independently for longer, simpler hobbies, not needing so much stuff, etc.

dmm an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Much more likely is that conditions for elder care will continuously degrade until MAID becomes most people's choice.

MyHonestOpinon an hour ago | parent [-]

For those who don't already know this, like me. (MAID) Medical Assistance in Dying

nradov 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Despite the hype cycle around humanoid robots it's unlikely that they'll advance enough to be capable of replacing many human workers in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities within our lifetimes. Expect to see lots of really sad stories about elder abuse and neglect because as a society we simply won't have the resources to adequately care for them all.

nemomarx 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I kinda expect nursing and people paid to give attention to the elderly to be the last job standing. very hard to replace or automate

nradov 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Paid by whom? That's the problem. The people with money won't be willing to pay more taxes to fund workers to care for a growing indigent elderly population. It's already causing shortages today and will only get worse.

MyHonestOpinon an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Increasing health span would be a big step forward. More specifically old age dementia.

seanmcdirmid 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They don’t have to. If say robotaxis become widespread, you’ve freed up some portion of the labor market to do something else. They don’t have to automate all jobs, just some.

arcologies1985 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The evidence has shown that this thinking is flawed - disruption of jobs in an industry causes a slow, wrenching, scarring adjustment process that increases the load on welfare programs and makes quality of life broadly worse: https://www.npr.org/2025/02/11/g-s1-47352/why-economists-got...

nemomarx 3 hours ago | parent [-]

sure but after 3-5 generations it works out, like with farming and weaving. just gotta wait longer!

arcologies1985 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If only this was a game of Victoria 3

3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
CodingJeebus 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It won't. The economic gains of automation will continue to be captured by the capital-owning class. It's simply too valuable to just give over to the masses.

torlok an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If the benefits of increased productivity went to the people instead of the 1%, you wouldn't need a growing population.

triceratops 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why? I understand that's how the system works now but does it have to? Productivity has never been higher.

Am4TIfIsER0ppos 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why though? All those old people paid in all their lives so surely that is sitting in a vault somewhere waiting for them.

actionfromafar 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We need young people to pay for the billionaire subsidies (economically speaking, someone has to accumulate all that profit and it's not going be us)

sandworm101 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If they were only eating there would be no problem. But they want fancy vacations. They want houses. They need drugs. They need MRI machines. And they need these things for decades for minimal cost irrespective of ability to pay. And, when they do die, they expect to pass estates tax-free to thier children. Supporting the retired population is one thing, but the day may soon come when we revisit what it means to be retired.

supertrope 3 hours ago | parent [-]

If you want to punch up try aiming higher than the upper-middle class. Other countries have MRIs and drugs as part of universal healthcare.

bluGill 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Those other countries are still paying for those things somehow. (or they really have the alleged death panels critics talk about) You can shove the cost in different places, but somehow they still have to be paid.

sandworm101 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Ya but those countries also do not enjoy private health insurance and for-profit care providers. The ability to purchase shares in both the hospital that is treating you and the company that authorizes your treatment is a uniquely american priviledge.

triceratops 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> those countries also do not enjoy private health insurance and for-profit care providers

I don't think anyone enjoys them per se.

biophysboy 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I am not remotely worried about birth rates. Every tech executive hyperventilating about it is extrapolating social trends decades ahead, which is the same mistake Erlich made when he published the "The Population Bomb". The total fertility rate has limitations as a metric too (it assumes constant birth timing).

The fact that they do this coercive paternalism on the very platforms that substitute for real life social interaction is very rich to me. I'll listen to them when they divest from the social corrosion machines.

oklahomasports 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Predicting population decline is safer than overgrowth. Since with low birth rates we know we need substantially higher than replacement rates to make up for the deficit. Which seems unlikely

biophysboy 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Safer in the sense that its better to be overcautious than under? I definitely agree! I'm just saying we could do without the finger wagging. Either we commit to fostering relationships or we commit to their substitutes. I'm just saying I call their bluff.

tonmoy 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The main issue with population decline is the inability to depend on the growing younger population to fund the retirement of elderly people

vjvjvjvjghv 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That's the way the system is set up but basically it's not sustainable. You can have more young people now to fix the problem of funding older people. But what happens when these young people get old? Now you need even more young people.

arcologies1985 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Look at the problems South Korea is having, where there are not enough young people to support and care for the elderly. Elders face economic hardship and the healthcare system is buckling under load.

Sol- 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because progress and growth makes us wealthier and happier? It's pretty simple.

People say "Oh, but GDP isn't everything" - but it's correlated with almost everything good, so might as well be.

bombcar 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

GDP is correlated only while good things are increasing - forcing every married family to divorce at gunpoint and become two family households would greatly increase GDP - but I don't think we'd agree that's good.

supertrope 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This. The prospect of a brighter future at least means capital and labor are fighting for slices of a bigger pie. If the pie per capita stays constant or shrinks there will be a lot more anti-social behavior to response to the zero-sum environment.

fooker 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because you are not prepared for the poverty that follows from an economy stalling.

anthonypasq 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

humans are good. life is good. we should be trying to increase the number of conscious beings in the universe.

we have a diseased misanthropic culture. i dont know where it came from but its existential.

globular-toast 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Basically it makes people feel good. Growth is exciting and motivates people to do stuff. Shrinkage makes people sad, depressed and more likely to try to protect what they have. It's often irrational, but that's just the way it is.

Growth isn't sustainable, of course. If you're a gardener you get to experience the joy of growth every year, but you have to "pay it back" in autumn and winter as everything dies back and resets. The seasons force it on you in the garden, but we can't force it on ourselves. We'll just keep having summer after summer until it all goes boom.

bombcar 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This might be a really good analogy - we're in an endless summer and we have people who are now dying having lived in it their entire life - we don't even know what fall is like, let alone winter.

On a personal level it might be possible to "bring winter back" - I'll have think on what that might mean.

mothballed 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Social Security system relies on creating a debt of unborn children to older people based on those older people having already paid now dead people, so keeping it solvent requires more meat for the tax machine.

A pyramid inversion means the old keep voting for OPM from the young, using their numbers to crush them, meanwhile there are fewer and fewer young to actually pay it. Eventually creating instability, couple this with entitlement "I paid that dead guy, so that kid owes me!" (of course, abstracted, as "the government owes me" to hide the kinetics) and you are in a bad spot.

---------- edit: reply to below since I am throttled -----

yes under any system youth are needed. But SS creates a tragedy of the commons. Because retired get benefit obligation of children whether they have/adopt/foster the children or not. In most other systems, the link is more direct, so there is greater incentive to have or adopt child and provide investment in the child, as their success is directly linked to yours. In SS system you can reneg on most of the responsibility of creating the engines of the next generation but still simply scalp that investment off someone else, and indeed still get roughly the same share without making the investment. Obviously there is great moral hazard to simply scalp the benefit of children without having to make the investment yourself, and SS is all to happy to provide that.

anonymars 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Mentioning Social Security and government implies there is some other form of retirement that doesn't inherently depend on younger people still working, doesn't it? I mean, who else going to grow the food and sweep the streets?

pjc50 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The traditional approach to this is:

a) make younger female family members do all the work

b) make them invisible, politically and socially, so everything looks fine

bombcar 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Even if you don't go to that extreme, you look back only a few generations and even today at immigrants, and you see that the old people never stop working until they're literally bed-ridden.

They might not have GDP-increasing jobs that show up on balance sheets, but grandma watches the kids (effectively working as daycare, off-books), grandpa fixes things, and so on.

By demanding everything be reduced to the nuclear family (or smaller) we've created an unnatural situation on never seen before on a global scale.

mothballed 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> They might not have GDP-increasing jobs that show up on balance sheets, but grandma watches the kids (effectively working as daycare, off-books), grandpa fixes things, and so on.

Yes I believe this brings up one of the more poisonous elements of social security, even if it is worth it. It completely decouples the mutual assistance where the parent and grandparent form a symbiotic relationship in the interest of raising the child. Instead of a quid-pro-quo, the government violently enforces a one-way transaction and the older generation can simply tell the younger generation to kick rocks.

Obviously I don't think the elderly have any responsibility to do daycare or fix things, but the fact they can simply not do so while demanding the counterparty still keep up their end of the bargain -- has consequences. If the older generation can tell the younger generation to kick rocks, then the younger generation ought to be able to tell the older generation they can kick rocks back to whatever private savings/investment they have.

bombcar 2 hours ago | parent [-]

That's always been my deep unsettling feeling about the whole idea of "mass-market social security nets" of the type Americans call "social security" - it's one thing to provide for those who literally have nothing and nobody; it's another to blanket everyone with it and disrupt natural processes that are as old as time.

Of course, many actual families do NOT go to extremes, and in fact USE the social security they get to help fund the grandchildren, in all sorts of ways. But you have to actively fight against the status quo to do so.

It's interesting to note that even though everyone 'knows' you don't pay SS payments into some account somewhere that is drawn from later, it's transfer payments now - it is still marketed and sold as the former.

kingofmen 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Forms of retirement that don't have the force of law can be adjusted on the fly to match the available resources. When the government forcibly requires that each elderly person be paid a fixed amount of resources yearly, it's possible for there to be literally zero surplus for the young people making the resources. That can't happen under systems where the transfers are voluntary.

ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I mean, who else going to grow the food and sweep the streets?

I'm not sure what the state of the art is with either of these, but I'm now imagining scaled-up Roombas stealthily cleaning the streets at night.

Or this, but self-driving: https://www.alamy.com/compact-kubota-bx2350-street-cleaning-...

More seriously, I think there is a before-and-after point with AI, before some point the automation is just a "normal technology" and we need humans for a lot of jobs, pensioners can only get meaningful pensions when a new generation is present to pay for it all, otherwise pension ages need to keep rising; after that point, automation is so good we can do UBI (AKA "set the pension age to birth")… well, provided the state owns the automation, otherwise good luck demanding free access.

internetter 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

(I am a social democrat, not a libertarian) All models require to some extent the youth working, but not all require a part of the youth's fruits of their labour being taken and put into social security. A libertarian might say that the onus is on the boomers to save enough money to fund their own retirement so that they're not reliant on the social security safety net.

bombcar 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It doesn't really matter on a macro scale if you have social security doing it, or "retirement accounts" doing it - at the base there is capital and value-add (work) and you're transferring from one to the other.

Now perhaps 401ks owning stocks is effectively "lending" capital to the working-class for a fee - but you'd have to argue that.

triceratops 2 hours ago | parent [-]

It absolutely does matter whether you're taxing wages or capital though.

Wages are constrained by the number of workers. Capital is constrained by total productivity.

mindslight 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The point is that money is still just an abstraction. When you take a step back and analyze things in terms of goods and services being the value, you end up with the same types of questions as when analyzing social security in terms of money.

reducesuffering 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think people really fail to understand the gravity of an inverted demographic pyramid, going from 2 young people supporting 1 old, to 1 young person supporting 2 old. That's .5 -> 2x, a 4x increase in burden (taxes / extra work).

tehjoker 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

American capitalists and economic planners fret about "Japan Syndrome". To have more productivity and more consumption i.e. GDP growth, you need more people as a core driver. We don't actually need this, we could do fine with a stable population, but capitalism needs to grow or perish.

Declining populations are trickier for most economic concepts though. Less labor, less consumption. That said, a slight decline can leave more houses unoccupied which can be good. A major decline would mean so many unoccupied houses that you would have broken and abandoned houses though because it would be too costly to deal with the abandoned units.

bpt3 2 hours ago | parent [-]

If you or anyone you care about is or will be elderly and is not financially independent, you should care.

This has nothing to do with capitalism; it's a resource allocation problem. We spend inordinate amounts of money on end of life care, and any changes are currently unacceptable to voters.

tehjoker 14 minutes ago | parent [-]

You're talking about age structure, but overall population age-structure can be adjusted by immigration flows, births, deaths, etc. My point was about the total population number.

You can imagine a steady-state population where the age structure is stable and productivity is high enough to sustain the retirees, trainees, and disabled.

r14c 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The line has to go up every year forever, even if it causes cyclical market instability and consolidation into mega conglomerates. Creating sustainable wealth across all sectors of society just isn't profitable enough in the short term.