Or understood way too well. I promise it isn't Altman that will be left destroyed or jobless if this crashes.

> or $34.72/month from every current iPhone user...

As a current iPhone user, I'm not signing up for that especially if it is on top of the monthly cell service fee.

I do realize though that you were trying to provide useful context.

It might provide cover to lay off more than 5% of us (the LLM can create a work-like text product that, as far as upper management can tell, is indistinguishable from the real thing!), then we will have to go find jobs swinging hammers to build houses. Well, somebody’s got to do it.

That’s the bet! last time we had that growth was for a few years during the dotcom, followed by a lost decade of growth in tech stocks

Doesn't have to go up. It's also fine if they replace other parts of the economy.

The quote is about a one-time increase in growth of 5 percentage points. Not multiple years or forever.

Or obviously it can be spread out, e.g. ~1% additional increase over 5 years.

China did it. It’s not inconceivable.

Or we’re seeing a world where corporations dwarf countries.

Apple will be around in a hundred years.

Will the USA?

I am more afraid if AI will actually deliver what CEOs are touting. People that are now working will be unemployable and will have to pivot to something else, overcrowding these other sectors and driving wages down.

If that comes to pass you will work the same or more for less money than now.

Basically jump back to a true plutocracy since only a few people will syphon the wealth generated by AI and that wealth will give them substantial temporal power.

There has never been an industry that does that consistently (that wasn't government subsidised at least).

We got lucky with the dotcom bubble.

There's no guarantee of anything, and it's totally possible for the industry to collapse and stay that way.

Make sure you click the unmute button, imgur mutes by default it seems.

Smiling Friends

Even if gaming goes to the cloud, how are they going to run the massive existing library of video games on the dedicated AI inference hardware that everyone is buying right now? Seems like that pivot would require even more spending.

Meaning or not, UBI doesn't work because the math doesn't work.

> bizarre

It isn't bizarre at all. Without work people devolve into playing video games and smoking pot in their mom's basement.

I remember summer vacations from school. It was great for a while, but soon I was looking forward to getting back to school.

governments will collapse before we are at a moment where UBI is needed. Billionaires and companies hardly pay any tax and if white collar jobs die down, there is no guarantee that government will even have money to wipe their butt.

Whatever happened to crypto/blockchain ASICs

AI, obviously! A bubble doesn't mean demand vanishes overnight. There is - at current price points - much more demand than supply. That means the market can tolerate price hikes whilst keeping the accelerators busy. It seems likely that we're still just at the start of AI demand as most companies are still finding their feet with it, lots of devs still aren't using it at all, lots of business workflows that could be automated with it aren't and so on. So there is scope for raising prices a lot as the high value use cases float to the top, maybe even auctioning tokens.

Let's say tomorrow OpenAI and Anthropic have a huge down round, or whatever event people think would mark the end of the bubble. That doesn't mean suddenly nobody is using AI. It means they have to rapidly reduce burn e.g. not doing new model versions, laying off staff and reducing the comp of those that remain, hiking prices a lot, getting more serious about ads and other monetized features. They will still be selling plenty of inferencing.

In practice the action is mostly taking place out of public markets. We won't necessarily know what's happening at the most exposed companies until it's in the rear view mirror. Bubbles are a public markets phenomenon. See how "ride sharing"/taxi apps played out. Market dumping for long periods to buy market share, followed by a relatively easy transition to annual profitability without ever going public. Some investors probably got wiped along the way but we don't know who exactly or by how much.

Most likely outcome: AI bubble will deflate steadily rather than suddenly burst. Resources are diverted from training to inferencing, new features slow down, new models are weaker and more expensive than new models and the old models are turned off anyway. That sort of thing. People will call it enshittification but it'll really just be the end of aggressive dumping.

Anyone who regularly tries to rent GPUs on VPS providers knows that they often sell out. This isn't a market with lots of capacity nobody needs. In the dot.com bubble there was lots of dark fiber nobody was using. In this bubble, almost every high-end GPU is being used fully by someone.

Heating!

Can they run Crysis?

We can use the GPUs for research (64-bit scientific compute), 3d graphics, a few other things. We programmers will reconfigure them to something useful.

At least, the GPUs that are currently plugged in. A lot of this bullshit bubble crap is because most of those GPUs (and RAM) is sitting unplugged in a warehouse, because we don't even have enough power to turn all of them on.

So if your question is how to use a GPU... I got plenty of useful non-AI related ideas. But only if we can plug them in.

I wouldn't be surprised if many of those GPUs are just e-waste, never to turn on due to lack of power.

cloud gaming?

It’s too bad they’re all concentrated in buildings, having been hovered up by the billionaire class.

I would love to live in the world where everyone joins a pool for inference or training, and as such gets the open source weights and models for free.

We could call it: FOSS

> Wild speculation detached from reality which destroys personal fortunes are not "a desirable feature."

This is not the definition of a bubble, and is specifically contrary to what i said.

A good bubble, like the automobile industry in the example I linked, paves the way for a whole new economic modalit - but value was still destroyed when that bubble popped and the market corrected.

You may think its better to not have bubbles and limit the maximum economic rate of change (and you may be right), but the current system is not obviously wrong and has benefits.

The trouble is, you can only tell what was "detached from reality" after the fact. Real-world bubbles must be credible by definition, or else they would deflate smoothly rather than growing out of control and then popping suddenly when the original expectations are dashed by reality.

> It's only a "desirable feature" to the nihilistic maniacs that run the markets as it's only beneficial to them.

... and which forces do you think are the core concept of "the American experiment"?