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caust1c 5 hours ago

I watched this video yesterday corroborating this story and I gotta say the evidence is pretty hard to refute:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ws8Grsc4jU

Purposefully devaluing the dollar to make US goods more globally marketable and hide the Japanese debt crisis is an interesting but risky strategy.

Currently, I'm glad to see a correction without panic, but it's too early to make a call on the effect on the overall global economy. Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.

avensec 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The channel appears to be five years of "It is happening!" and "It started!" thumbnails. I just can't take it seriously, so I decided to look into the company/leadership.

It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.

johnvanommen 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> It appears they've been associated with a lot of hype/fear copy-paste companies that offer highly inflated monthly access to their trades and research. Note that they were named "Game of Trades" before rebranding.

I really wish that people would wake up to the danger posed by meme stock BS “leaking” into the general markets.

Just as voters are responsible for changes in society, uninformed investors can impact society too, especially when they’re amplifying their purchasing power via leverage.

For instance, I’ve been buying real estate forever, and I’ve enjoyed the Reventure app.

But I’ve REALLY noticed that his YT videos are exclusively doom and gloom.

This ceaseless negativity moves markets, just as the irrational exuberance for real estate in 2005 moved markets.

But the exuberance for real estate was driven by people who were buying real estate.

The endless doom and gloom of YT finance videos is for a much different reason:

It drives page views.

That’s not a good thing. Because it’s really easy to get swept up in the negativity. And that negativity has a downstream effect, where it’s often used to convince people to invest in things that the YouTuber is promoting.

Basically, I don’t know if we need an “SEC for YouTube,” but we might.

Yes, I know we already have an SEC for YouTube (it’s the SEC), but nearly none of the people doling out financial advice on YT are trained professionals. It’s the fundamental defect of internet advice; who to trust?

zbentley 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Misinformation and mass hysteria suck, I agree. But if the amplification of the sky-is-falling-flavor-of-the-week braindead youtuber take can materially imperil financial markets, the stability of that system was always doomed.

An “SEC for YouTube” can’t prevent shit if the lever of influence is already that long. It might be able to keep a lot of meme investor idiots from losing their shirts, but that has to be weighed against the historically evident risks of having what amounts to a ministry of truth/state propaganda regulator.

no_wizard 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I can only personally speak for myself and I'm not giving financial advice here. I use the Bolgehead strategy of the 3 fund portfolio is still the tried and true I follow, and I have yet to not benefit from doing so, even in economic downturns[0]

[0]: https://www.bogleheads.org

drakythe 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm immediately concerned with the note about silver dropping so much. Yes, that happened, and was a historic drop. But it followed a historic run up to its prior price, so the drop is still net positive for even a 1 month period.

I'm not saying the article's thesis is incorrect, but its providing some data without context. I'm always leery of data presented without context.

lkey an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

DO NOT make financial decisions based on the advice of a youtube channel. DO NOT make financial decisions based of of the advice of an an article written by a know associate of Curtis Yarvin. You saw the video yesterday because this is a marketing exercise. They hold a stake in the outcome, you are the greater fool.

Christ.

Find a professional fiduciary that doesn't have a youtube channel and never speculate more than you can afford to lose.

UltraSane 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Yuan is never going to be a global reserve currency with how opaque the CCP is.

bloppe 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The bar has been significantly lowered in the last year since the US has decided to commit bigly to unpredictability. Another 3 years of these kinds of manipulations and the Yuan could very well look like the lesser evil to a lot of countries.

3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
marcosdumay 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Yuan already is a popular reserve currency.

What is this crazy idea that every single country must act all the time in the same simplified way?

tastyfreeze 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The first currency to be gold backed will take the crown. China appears to be building towards that end.

PassingClouds 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Looks like the BRICS initiative is building towards this with an August announcement. But until it happens, this is still in rumor territory.

https://bmg-group.com/russia-confirms-brics-will-create-gold...

unethical_ban 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't understand why gold-backing is required. I'm a novice.

My understanding is that a reserve currency requires fluid markets and a stable, reliable, metrics-based currency policy. It's why the Fed is so stubborn about its relatively simple policy goals: 2% inflation and low unemployment.

tastyfreeze 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Partially gold backed reduces counter-party risk. Fully gold backed, and exchangeable, eliminates counter-party risk.

China appears to be attempting to reproduce what the USD was before it was free floating.

USD is currently backed by debt and nominally military might. If the US defaults then all of the US bonds held by foreign banks become worthless. That is an enormous risk which is why countries have been divesting from US bonds. If USD was still gold, as it was before 1913, if you hold your money it cannot be made worthless by a third party. After 1913 USD became gold backed bills with partial reserve. It is why USD became the global reserve currency. But, reserve requirements were reduced and more paper was produced. In 1971 Nixon removed the convertibility of paper bills to gold metal effectively stealing the gold of any nation that asked the US to hold it.

One of my favorite bits of currency trivia is that a $20 double gold eagle coin used in circulation prior to 1933 had a gold content of 0.9675 troy ounces. Twenty dollars in your hand was literally nearly an ounce of gold.

rednafi 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.

I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.

UltraSane 4 hours ago | parent [-]

The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs.

China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example).

Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible.

Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.

3 hours ago | parent | next [-]
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maxglute 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>Reserve currency issuer must run

This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg.

Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere

Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant.

It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.