> Xi's already suggested making the Yuan a global reserve currency, and seeing as much debt they're holding, I'm a little worried they're able to make it happen if this is the US financial strategy.

I wonder why you’re worried. Regime’s change all the time. From a third party perspective, China is no better or worse than the US. Also, given how literally every country under the sun despises US now, this might just happen.

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UltraSane 4 hours ago | parent [-]

The way China manages it's currency is very different to how the US manages theirs.

China maintains strict controls on capital flows in/out. A reserve currency requires free convertibility. Holders need to move large sums instantly without permission. China has repeatedly tightened these controls during stress periods (2015-16 devaluation fears, for example).

Limited access to Chinese bond markets and equities for foreign institutions. Reserve currency status requires deep, liquid markets where central banks can park hundreds of billions. US Treasury market is $26T and extremely liquid. Chinese government bond market is smaller and less accessible.

Reserve currency issuer must run persistent current account deficits to supply the world with currency. China's economic model is built on export surpluses. They'd need to fundamentally restructure their economy.

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	▲	maxglute 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		>Reserve currency issuer must run This is PRC's fundamental disagreement. US reserve currency morphed into high liquid, high speculative instrument to fund unsustainable debt, hollowed out domestic industry (triffin)... but this is not by design. It's the result of emergency adaptations moving off gold, then people post rationalize the trinity musts (open capital, floating rates, independent central bank) is what makes reserve when it's unintended structural outcome from failed gold peg. Now we see hints of end stage USD reserve behavior, debt snow balls and reserve controller will pull the our dollar, your problem card. This US doing current conniptions trying to either reduce USD strength or inflate away debt... costly instability. People forget, liquidity / storage only matters to sovereign buyers who needs reserve for utility... everyone else (now plurality) are private buyers who buy for returns. If we enter end of dollar cycle and USD reserve cost them money, then they go elsewhere Elsewhere is what PRC wants to offer, HIGHLY CONTROLLED, BUT STABLE reserve pegged to PRC industrial chains, i.e. real economy instead of speculative financialization. This what recent yuan reserve talk is from (note it was old Xi speech republished in Qiushi), so the propose model isn't even in response to current USD conniptions but prediction on end life of US behavior when USD reserve goes from exorbitant privilege to just exorbitant. It's precisely because logical outcome of current reserve "musts", i.e. triffin charity/global good that makes it ultimately a stupid arrangement where the system breaks when US/owner can't afford to maintain or develops bad habits (deficit spending). Hence, what PRC plans to offer in parallel: stable regulated reserves for "real economy" financial utility. Stable Yuan "bank" reserve can coexist with volatile USD "casino" reserve. Now of course this all heterodox theory, but we are seeing theory of USD reserve limits peaking it's head, and PRC not retarded enough to pickup triffin baton. IMO PRC fine with US dealing with triffin headache and IMO betting US will fuck global creditors when shit hits fan, i.e. they waiting for USD reserve to implode due to inherent contradictions, to show world precisely why yuan reserve not modelled to repeat same mistake.