| ▲ | Noaidi a day ago |
| No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. There were a lot of people who predicted the housing crash, not the timing but the crash. There are several signs that this is happening and the one no one is talking about is gold and silver prices. Don’t worry about the timing, you’ll never get the timing right, just worry about the fundamental economics and the flaws and protect yourself. I happen to agree just because of golden silver prices that it’s going to happen sooner than later, regardless if war breaks out with Iran. |
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| ▲ | padjo a day ago | parent | next [-] |
| At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky. |
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| ▲ | Noaidi a day ago | parent [-] | | This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great? I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because there is no way out. If they lower rates, inflation. If they raise them, assets collapse. People have been warning about this exact secnario since 2008 and no one is listening. Back then it was a prediction, but now it is happening. | | |
| ▲ | qnpnpmqppnp a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening. Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page? | | |
| ▲ | vdupras a day ago | parent | next [-] | | All time high if denominated in USD. YoY, stocks have been increasing in value as fast as USD is losing to CHF. Regardless of whether gold and silver jumps are a pump and dump, stocks, in "real" value, are at most flat. | | |
| ▲ | qnpnpmqppnp a day ago | parent [-] | | Well it's an all time high in EUR as well for instance. I haven't checked for CHF or other currency one may cherry-pick, but in any case it wouldn't change my point: even if it was slightly below an all time high, it's not currently crashing. | | |
| ▲ | vdupras a day ago | parent [-] | | I'm not the one who made the "it's crashing now" claim and I do agree that from a certain point of view, it might be seen as a stretch. However, what I'm claiming is that "all time high" is also quite a stretch. Pretty much all nations have been printing money pretty intensely, so fiat is not a solid anchor to derive "actual value", but CHF might be among those that are less printed, so I chose it. Even if we chose EUR, EURUSD wins YoY over S&P 500, hence, "stocks are flat". Sure, in the case of EUR, optics are fuzzier and you might pick a point or index showing a small increase over EURUSD, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat the general point, especially if your counter point is "stocks are at an all time high". | | |
| ▲ | qnpnpmqppnp 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | My counter point is "stocks are not crashing". It being an all time high was just to highlight how much "not-crashing" they are, but that doesn't really matter. Even if stocks were merely flat over the past year (or even somewhat down), the general point would still be the lack of a stock market crash. |
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| ▲ | lux-lux-lux a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law | |
| ▲ | Noaidi a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | It’s funny when people just determine that a crash only happens when the stock market crashes. Things were crashing in the housing market before the stock market crashed in 2008. Do your homework. | | |
| ▲ | qnpnpmqppnp a day ago | parent [-] | | > Do your homework. About what though? You haven't explained what you meant by a crash so I don't have much more to go by to understand your point. If not the stock market, what's the market you mean is currently crashing? |
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| ▲ | amanaplanacanal a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm an old guy. Some people (goldbugs) have been predicting that the debt would lead to a crash since the 1970s. I'm withholding judgement. |
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| ▲ | thunky 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > No one will ever get the timing right, but if you see the fundamental flaws of the economy, you know a crash is going to come. If you know it's coming but don't know when then you don't know anything. Certainly not enough to bet on. |
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| ▲ | VirusNewbie a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Keep in mind that not only did people predict the housing crash, some were certain houses would be sold for pennies on the dollar. I bought a short sale distressed town house in 2009 for 40% lower than its peak price, and many people told me it was a terrible decision because if I just waited long enough, I'd buy it for a fraction of the price. I think prices went a bit lower in 2010, but then I gained about 400k in equity over the next 10 years and sold it. |
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| ▲ | PeterHolzwarth 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The Economist front page illustration of the 90s .com stock market, with the heading "CRASH DAMMIT!" Everyone knew there was a bubble. People began to get impatient for what obviously was going to happen, as you say. |
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| ▲ | AnimalMuppet a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Gold and silver are likely to crash. I don't think they are big enough to cause a crash of the overall economy, though. |
