At any given moment there is always someone predicting that the economy will crash. So someone will always have predicted it. The question is do they actually have some insight or were they just lucky.

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Noaidi 20 hours ago | parent [-]

This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening. You just do not want to see it. Can you explain gold and silver prices? can you explain why bitcoin has been flat now dropping? The falling dollar? The US Treasury yields rising since 2020? CAn you explain why consumers feel at ease even though economicsts are stying everything is great?

I mean why do you think the FED and Trump are all over each other? Because there is no way out. If they lower rates, inflation. If they raise them, assets collapse.

People have been warning about this exact secnario since 2008 and no one is listening. Back then it was a prediction, but now it is happening.

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qnpnpmqppnp 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> This not a prediction. The crash is currently happening.

The stock market being at an all-time high, a crash in the usual meaning of this term is not, by definition, currently happening.

Since apparently this isn't what you mean by "crash", could you define what you mean by this term so we're all on the same page?

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vdupras 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

All time high if denominated in USD. YoY, stocks have been increasing in value as fast as USD is losing to CHF. Regardless of whether gold and silver jumps are a pump and dump, stocks, in "real" value, are at most flat.

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qnpnpmqppnp 19 hours ago | parent [-]

Well it's an all time high in EUR as well for instance. I haven't checked for CHF or other currency one may cherry-pick, but in any case it wouldn't change my point: even if it was slightly below an all time high, it's not currently crashing.

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vdupras 18 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm not the one who made the "it's crashing now" claim and I do agree that from a certain point of view, it might be seen as a stretch.

However, what I'm claiming is that "all time high" is also quite a stretch. Pretty much all nations have been printing money pretty intensely, so fiat is not a solid anchor to derive "actual value", but CHF might be among those that are less printed, so I chose it.

Even if we chose EUR, EURUSD wins YoY over S&P 500, hence, "stocks are flat". Sure, in the case of EUR, optics are fuzzier and you might pick a point or index showing a small increase over EURUSD, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat the general point, especially if your counter point is "stocks are at an all time high".

	▲	qnpnpmqppnp 14 hours ago \| parent [-]
		My counter point is "stocks are not crashing". It being an all time high was just to highlight how much "not-crashing" they are, but that doesn't really matter. Even if stocks were merely flat over the past year (or even somewhat down), the general point would still be the lack of a stock market crash.

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lux-lux-lux 19 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

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Noaidi 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It’s funny when people just determine that a crash only happens when the stock market crashes. Things were crashing in the housing market before the stock market crashed in 2008. Do your homework.

	▲	qnpnpmqppnp 19 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> Do your homework. About what though? You haven't explained what you meant by a crash so I don't have much more to go by to understand your point. If not the stock market, what's the market you mean is currently crashing?

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amanaplanacanal 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm an old guy. Some people (goldbugs) have been predicting that the debt would lead to a crash since the 1970s. I'm withholding judgement.