Interesting framing. The article makes a compelling case that we're seeing the hangover from 14 years of ZIRP-fueled hiring rather than an AI apocalypse.

But I'm curious what people think the equilibrium looks like. If the "two-tier system" (core revenue teams + disposable experimental teams) becomes the norm, what does that mean for the future of SWE as a career?

A few scenarios I keep turning over:

  1. Bifurcation - A small elite of "10x engineers" command premium comp while the majority compete for increasingly commoditized roles                                                       
  2. Craftsmanship revival - Companies learn that the "disposable workforce" model ships garbage, and there's renewed appreciation for experienced engineers who stick around                 
  3. Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries                                              
                                                                                                                                                                                              

For those of you 10+ years into your careers: are you optimistic about staying in IC roles long-term, or does management/entrepreneurship feel like the only sustainable path?

As someone with many animator friends, this sounds very bleak. Their work processes are very similar to software engineering, with the difference that their hiring process is much quicker (they just show a bunch of reels and shots they made for previous films or cartoons, and they’re hired). The sad part is that they have almost no labor rights, and competition is incredibly high, which means pay is very low and turnover is high. All these years, I’ve been setting my expectations that one day my field may become like that.

#1 is inevitable; the Pareto distribution is everywhere. I read a paper on how it naturally shows up when people can act on preferences, but can't remember the paper (and it was in the context of why cities show a Pareto distribution)

#2 there will always be craftsmanship companies, but they will always be small companies, or a small team within a big organization. Craftsmanship doesn't scale; engineering does.

#3 contracting won't become the default. Many places have experimental or well-contained projects, or not enough ongoing work for full-time, but anywhere that custom-built software is important to the business will always need changes and maintenance. The problem with using contractors is that after their contract is over, they go find another contract, so they may not be available when you would like to re-use them, and then you've got to start over with a new one.

Look at any other industry. It's going to be like that.

Low–wage employees without agency.

I am 10+ years into my career. I don’t think mgmt / entrepreneurship feels like the only sustainable path. But I believe I may become a manager of a 5-10 Claudes.

I always saw it as bimodal (even before LLMs) - you have folks working in regular shops making average comp, and you have the big tech elites earning high base + equity comp.

The Pragmatic Engineer argues it's actually trimodal (at least in Europe): https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/software-engineering-sala...

"Consulting/contractor becomes default - Full-time employment becomes rare; most devs work project-to-project like other creative industries"

I'm in the tech industry and have been doing this for 12+ years now. In the beginning, it was because I wanted to live overseas for a few years, without a break in my career.

Now, it's about survival. I buy my own health insurance (me and my family) in the marketplace every year (so I'm not tied to an employer), work with multiple clients (I never really have to worry about getting laid off), and make much more than a FTE.

While all my friends in tech are getting laid off or constantly in fear of getting laid off, I don't have to worry.

I also find that because I touch so many different technologies, I have to turn down work. I turned down a company last year, that wanted me in-house and one this year that would have been too demanding on my schedule.

It's also flexible and always remote.