#1 is inevitable; the Pareto distribution is everywhere. I read a paper on how it naturally shows up when people can act on preferences, but can't remember the paper (and it was in the context of why cities show a Pareto distribution)

#2 there will always be craftsmanship companies, but they will always be small companies, or a small team within a big organization. Craftsmanship doesn't scale; engineering does.

#3 contracting won't become the default. Many places have experimental or well-contained projects, or not enough ongoing work for full-time, but anywhere that custom-built software is important to the business will always need changes and maintenance. The problem with using contractors is that after their contract is over, they go find another contract, so they may not be available when you would like to re-use them, and then you've got to start over with a new one.