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vannevar 20 hours ago

The problem with being a car company is that they'd have to compete with China. It's possible, but they'd have to make additional capital investments to keep up. They've just wasted a ton of money on a failed Musk vanity project (Cybertruck) and squandered a ton of goodwill in their home market via the DOGE fiasco. Cash flow is not what it once was, and if they're going to make a big capital investment, they're probably right in looking at robots. But that strategy puts them back where they were 20 years ago, just getting started in EVs, and their cash flow will depend on cars for many years to come.

hrunt 18 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If the problem with being a car company is that they'd have to compete with China, then I have some bad news about being a robot company. China is already farther ahead in both technology and volume of humanoid robots.[0][1][2][3]

[0] https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/28/cnbc-china-connection-newsle...

[1]https://www.unitree.com/g1

[2] https://interestingengineering.com/ai-robotics/limx-humanoid...

[3] https://www.bgr.com/2083491/china-agibot-humanoid-robot-us-c...

overfeed 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If you think of Musk companies as vehicles to extract money from state and federal governments, then everything falls into focus. Carbon credits, government launches and the Quixotic quest for Mars, and soon Tesla robots sold to the DoD and DHS. I'm only half-joking.

vannevar 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Fair point. It's hard to support Tesla's valuation as a car company, it may be even harder to support as a robot company. You have to wonder what might have been if they'd spent that Cybertruck money on battery research.

direwolf20 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is there anything China isn't far ahead in? Maybe capitalism was a failure.

sgentle 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Market cap and it's not even close. Turns out financialisation is the classic you-get-what-you-asked-for-not-what-you-wanted of capitalism. We told the optimiser to make number go up, and number has certainly gone up. China's number? Not as up.

I think it could have gone differently if we gave our economic system something to optimise other than itself, but then we wouldn't have centibillionaires, so... swings and roundabouts I guess?

direwolf20 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Who cares which country has a higher market cap? That's a capitalist concept, of course the capitalist country has more. I'm talking who has the more advanced technology.

barbazoo 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Or in a more charitable light maybe capitalism just isn’t the only system that’s capable of reaching certain technological development.

throwawaypath 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Maybe capitalism was a failure.

China is hyper-capitalist. They're living proof that capitalism has won.

pianopatrick 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

China is a mixed economy with some capitalist parts and some socialist parts just like us. Their mix is just a bit more effective than our mix than our mix and they have higher scale.

peterfirefly 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's more effective at depressing wages and at shovelling other people's money at whoever the politicians want to win. They are also much better at hiding debt -- in manufacturing companies, in banks, and in provincial governments. A lot of their successes lose money but they are awesome at hiding it and they might well outcompete Western companies and thereby cause a lot of harm.

pm90 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What do you mean “hiding it”? Are you suggesting Chinas manufacturing capacity is entirely fraudulent or cooking the books? Or that the state is providing subsidies? Because if its the latter… have you seen the brouhaha over Amazon HQ2? Or seen the number of tax credits/incentives doled out by US cities to companies that “promise” jobs but don’t even deliver them? (but keep their subsidies).

tacticus 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> They are also much better at hiding debt

Through bonds? or SVPs to fund the building of datacentres?

nick49488171 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

China is capitalist on a state level, that's where they are winning. The US lets things get mired in red tape and special interests because nobody wants to take responsibility for growth.

In China, I imagine that if your company does something relevant to the five year initiative then you get a lot of red tape cut for you.

overfeed 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> China is capitalist on a state level, that's where they are winning. The US lets things get mired in red tape and special interests because nobody wants to take responsibility for growth.

i.e. in China, the government controls capital; in the US, capital controls the government.

mayama 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> China is hyper-capitalist.

China is one party system, where CPC controls and owns production, policy, finance and even consumption levers.

incr_me 13 hours ago | parent [-]

> CPC controls and owns production, policy, finance and even consumption levers.

These terms are useless for distinguishing anything -- what you said can be said about literally any capitalist state.

> China is one party system

This is also relatively uninteresting. There have been many countries where a single party has nominally remained in power for about as long as the CCP has. That Deng Xiaoping's coup occurred without nominally dismantling the party makes the "one party system" distinction a superficial one.

mayama 12 hours ago | parent [-]

> These terms are useless for distinguishing anything -- what you said can be said about literally any capitalist state.

CPC mandates and gets seats on highest boards of companies, combines IP research across civil military, is both producer and consumer of products etc. Look at China's civil military fusion policy on the latest iteration of how they are doing this. In china there is no separate 3-4 branches of govt like in most places. CPC controls all legislative, executive, judiciary, military and private company boards and financial capital.

incr_me 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Again, just about everything you said applies to the U.S. state and its relations to private firms. Regardless of all that, profits accrue to private owners, investment decisions are determined by profit, and labor is hired and disciplined via market relations. All of the political relations you listed only marginally modify capitalist relations; the law of value still operates.

mayama 2 hours ago | parent [-]

One emperor in US state doesn't control legislative, executive, judiciary, military and private company boards and financial capital. The way you have to look at China it is an empire with bit of communism and capitalism. If the mandate of heaven is favorable emperor controls everything, otherwise power diffuses a little among the emperor coterie.

xiphias2 16 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's not like US is not capitalist in anything: it's still state-of-the-art in software, which preoves that the problem is not with capital markets.

It just probably overregulated hardware manufacturing out of existence with unionizing and other too strong regulations.

oblio 15 hours ago | parent [-]

Agreed. The children yearn for the mines and the 12+ hour shifts in factories.

chvid 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Marketing, sales, finance.

octoberfranklin 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Free speech.

danny_codes 14 hours ago | parent [-]

Unless you are protesting ICE of course.

Der_Einzige 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

LLMs...

tonyhart7 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You acting like china isn't capitalism

Ray20 11 hours ago | parent [-]

But that isn't capitalism. It's socialism, which uses many market mechanisms to manage the economy.

ruszki 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Making good cars. They can make cheap ones, maybe acceptable ones, but not good ones. They are not there yet. Of course, the general populace doesn’t really care, and the vast majority of the market is not driven by this, but still.

jansper39 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's why the whole NCAP safety table is topped with Chinese vehicles then.

theshackleford 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Making good cars. They can make cheap ones, maybe acceptable ones, but not good ones.

Did you just get out of your Time Machine from a decade ago?

ruszki 11 hours ago | parent [-]

No, I drove them, and also knowing how they sacrificed safety for example by integrating a lot of safety critical systems for the sake of price.

SR2Z 20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It doesn't help that Musk supported a guy who turned around and gutted the incentives that were helping Tesla turn a profit.

nishanseal 17 hours ago | parent [-]

It seems counterintuitive, but this helped Tesla which is why Musk championed it. Basically when that tax credit came out, a bunch of Tesla owners had their cars underwater - loans were more than new cars were selling for and depreciation thru the roof. Plus the tax credit helped their competitors. Now that the credit is gone, Tesla owners are closer to being in the black on their cars and it also caused Ford and GM to cut EV production by I believe 100%. Win win for Tesla.

asa400 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> It seems counterintuitive, but this helped Tesla which is why Musk championed it. Basically when that tax credit came out, a bunch of Tesla owners had their cars underwater - loans were more than new cars were selling for and depreciation thru the roof. Plus the tax credit helped their competitors.

This makes sense if your business strategy is to get existing Tesla owners to trade their current Teslas to buy new Teslas, rather than to convert non-Tesla owners to buy new Teslas. The latter market is WAY bigger and the tax credit was a huge carrot enticing them to look at a brand they'd never try otherwise in a market where ICE vehicle prices were skyrocketing.

As it stands, there are a ton of Tesla owners who bought their cars with the tax refund, are underwater on them, bitter about it and/or dislike Elon personally, and will never buy a Tesla again. This is churn and brand destruction without a corresponding top of funnel increase.

In contrast, the supercharger network was significant not just for the convenience factor for Tesla owners, but also for the fact that it was a social signal that Tesla was serious about growing the addressable market of EV owners generally by not just making a decent car but making the "EV lifestyle" seem possible to non-EV owners.

If Tesla actually is happy that the tax credit is going away, that seems like they're acknowledging that they're satisfied taking shrinking share of a shrinking market, which is their prerogative, but it's a bad business.

candiddevmike 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You lost me, how does making previous owners whole help tesla sell new ones?

lmm 15 hours ago | parent [-]

If your existing owners have made a "profit", or at least lost less to deprecation than normal, they're probably more willing to buy a new car from you (trading or selling their existing one) even if that new car is more expensive and they're actually paying just as much to upgrade as they would be anyway.

SR2Z 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Of course, it's 4D chess. This was such a genius move that Tesla profits fell 46% last year and they are ending production of their highest-margin vehicles.

GM wrote down $4B when they reduced their EV production. Despite that, last year GM sold half the number of EVs as Tesla did. If THAT was reduced production by 100%, then Tesla would have been truly fucked had Harris won the election.

Tesla is suffering because Elon Musk was a genius at some point in the past. Then, he got into ketamine and fried his brain.

The cars are expensive, have QC issues, and are facing steep competition from the rest of the world. Tesla's attempt to build an F150 competitor was a disaster, Optimus is years away from being useful for anything, and after 15 years of "We'll totally release FSD this year!" the market seems to finally be realizing that it's not going to happen for a little while.

It really sucks to see a perfectly good company get blown to smithereens, but shareholders did choose to bet on the man.

ohyoutravel 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It seems counterintuitive, but a 46% profit loss is good for Tesla and poised them perfectly to succeed.

x1ph0z 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Huh?

haspok 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Elon Musk was a genius at some point in the past

When he wrote the Hyperloop white paper? When he backdated himself as the founder of Tesla, then pushed the real founders out?...

He is a genius snake oil salesman, I give you that.

batshit_beaver 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This seems bizarre. Only reason my family bought a Tesla is thanks to the ev tax credit. Without it there are far better options.

gcr 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

won’t killing the EV market hurt Tesla in the long run?

markets are healthiest when there are many healthy competitors

jeltz 20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Right now they struggle to compete with European car manufacturers, there is no way they can compete with China.

10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
bamboozled 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The problem with being a car company is that they'd have to compete with China.

As if China cannot produce kick ass robots ? What special sauce does Musk have here that a country with a massive pool of highly trained and educated engineers and decades of manufacturing expertise don't have?

Ekaros 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I would bet that as soon as someone "solves" robots. China will relatively shortly, that is months or few years produce something that surpasses them. They have all the pieces and all the capabilities. Just look at drones for example. It just requires correct solution and China might even be first to provided that.

vannevar 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm sure China can. But nobody is producing consumer humanoid robots at any scale yet, so Tesla can at least make the argument that they'll make better robots when people actually start buying robots. People are buying cars at scale right now, and existing Tesla models have fallen behind their Chinese competitors.

linkregister 14 hours ago | parent [-]

Unitree delivered 5500 humanoid robots in 2025.

vannevar 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Another 10 years and maybe they will have sold as many as Sony sold Aibo robot dogs. You're making my point---it's not a significant market, and won't be for many years.

burnt-resistor 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tesla "competed" by corruptly getting BYD banned from the US and hurting US consumers.

saimiam 16 hours ago | parent [-]

Looks like they took Peter Thiel’s animosity towards competition too literally by blocking BYD from the US market. Without competition, they had no incentive to innovate since they were selling into the wealthiest market in the world for their product, the US.

No innovation made them stagnate. Being blocked from the US made BYD innovate.

laughing_man 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

He generated a lot of goodwill with "that DOGE fiasco", too. It just depends on where you fall politically.

linkregister 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Elon generated goodwill with DOGE among a group of people. He then alienated them during a public spat with the president. This is also a president who has decided to make EVs synonymous with the opposition political party.

danny_codes 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Which is interesting because it seems DOGE failed to do anything useful. Patrick Boyle’s video suggested it actually cost $100B.

Which would be par the course for Ketamine Elon

vannevar 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The people he generated goodwill with don't buy a lot of EVs, apparently.

laughing_man 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Nobody's buying EVs in the US since the subsidies expired. GM had a record Q4 because it gave up trying to sell EVs and started flogging expensive land yachts again.

vannevar 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Tesla's sales started declining before the subsidies expired.

qingcharles 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Elon's a strange hero for MAGA. All the hardcore rural MAGAs I know hate Elon. They consider him a rich dickhead nerd (and group him with Gates) and they hate EVs with a passion, since they are quiet and produce no black smoke.