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StableAlkyne 5 hours ago

> I'd love to see future reporting that instead of saying "Research finds amazing chemical x which does y" you see "Researcher reproduces amazing results for chemical x which does y. First discovered by z".

Most people (that I talk to, at least) in science agree that there's a reproducibility crisis. The challenge is there really isn't a good way to incentivize that work.

Fundamentally (unless you're independent wealthy and funding your own work), you have to measure productivity somehow, whether you're at a university, government lab, or the private sector. That turns out to be very hard to do.

If you measure raw number of papers (more common in developing countries and low-tier universities), you incentivize a flood of junk. Some of it is good, but there is such a tidal wave of shit that most people write off your work as a heuristic based on the other people in your cohort.

So, instead it's more common to try to incorporate how "good" a paper is, to reward people with a high quantity of "good" papers. That's quantifying something subjective though, so you might try to use something like citation count as a proxy: if a work is impactful, usually it gets cited a lot. Eventually you may arrive at something like the H-index, which is defined as "The highest number H you can pick, where H is the number of papers you have written with H citations." Now, the trouble with this method is people won't want to "waste" their time on incremental work.

And that's the struggle here; even if we funded and rewarded people for reproducing results, they will always be bumping up the citation count of the original discoverer. But it's worse than that, because literally nobody is going to cite your work. In 10 years, they just see the original paper, a few citing works reproducing it, and to save time they'll just cite the original paper only.

There's clearly a problem with how we incentivize scientific work. And clearly we want to be in a world where people test reproducibility. However, it's very very hard to get there when one's prestige and livelihood is directly tied to discovery rather than reproducibility.

gcr 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'd personally like to see top conferences grow a "reproducibility" track. Each submission would be a short tech report that chooses some other paper to re-implement. Cap 'em at three pages, have a lightweight review process. Maybe there could be artifacts (git repositories, etc) that accompany each submission.

This would especially help newer grad students learn how to begin to do this sort of research.

Maybe doing enough reproductions could unlock incentives. Like if you do 5 reproductions than the AC would assign your next paper double the reviewers. Or, more invasively, maybe you can't submit to the conference until you complete some reproduction.

azan_ 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem is that reproducing something is really, really hard! Even if something doesn't reproduce in one experiment, it might be due to slight changes in some variables we don't even think about. There are some ways to circumvent it (e.g. team that's being reproduced cooperating with reproducing team and agreeing on what variables are important for the experiemnt and which are not), but it's really hard. The solutions you propose will unfortunately incentivize bad reproductions and we might reject theories that are actually true because of that. I think that one of the best way to fight the crisis is to actually improve quality of science - articles where authors reject to share their data should be automatically rejected. We should also move towards requiring preregistration with strict protocols for almost all studies.

gcr an hour ago | parent | next [-]

That's fine! The tech report should talk about what the researchers tried and what didn't work. I think submissions to the reproducibility track shouldn't necessarily have to be positive to be accepted, and conversely, I don't think the presence of a negative reproduction should necessarily impact an author's career negatively.

AnIrishDuck 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, this feels like another reincarnation of the ancient "who watches the watchmen?" problem [1]. Time and time again we see that the incentives _really really_ matter when facing this problem; subtle changes can produce entirely new problems.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quis_custodiet_ipsos_custodes%...

gowld 14 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Every time some easy "Reproducibility is hard / not worth the effort" I hear "The original research wasn't meaningful or valuable".

dataflow 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Is it time for some sort of alternate degree to a PhD beyond a Master's? Showing, essentially, "this person can learn, implement, validate, and analyze the state of the art in this field"?

gogopromptless 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Thats what we call a Staff level engineer. Proven ability to learn, implement and validate is basically the "it factor" businesses are looking for.

If you are thinking about this from an academic angle then sure its sounds weird to say "Two Staff jobs in a row from the University of LinkedIn" as a degree. But I submit this as basically the certificate you desire.

gcr an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

That sounds precisely like the function of a Ph.D. to me.

maerF0x0 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> The challenge is there really isn't a good way to incentivize that work.

What if we got Undergrads (with hope of graduate studies) to do it? Could be a great way to train them on the skills required for research without the pressure of it also being novel?

StableAlkyne 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Those undergrads still need to be advised and they use lab resources.

If you're a tenure-track academic, your livelihood is much safer from having them try new ideas (that you will be the corresponding author on, increasing your prestige and ability to procure funding) instead of incrementing.

And if you already have tenure, maybe you have the undergrad do just that. But the tenure process heavily filters for ambitious researchers, so it's unlikely this would be a priority.

If instead you did it as coursework, you could get them to maybe reproduce the work, but if you only have the students for a semester, that's not enough time to write up the paper and make it through peer review (which can take months between iterations)

rtkwe 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Most interesting results are not so simple to recreate that would could reliably expect undergrads to do perform the replication even if we ignore the cost of the equipment and consumables that replication would need and the time/supervision required to walk them through the process.

suddenlybananas 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Unfortunately, that might just lead to a bunch of type II errors instead, if an effect requires very precise experimental conditions that undergrads lack the expertise for.

retsibsi 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Could it be useful as a first line of defence? A failed initial reproduction would not be seen as disqualifying, but it would bring the paper to the attention of more senior people who could try to reproduce it themselves. (Maybe they still wouldn't bother, but hopefully they'd at least be more likely to.)

MetaWhirledPeas 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Eventually you may arrive at something like the H-index, which is defined as "The highest number H you can pick, where H is the number of papers you have written with H citations."

It's the Google search algorithm all over again. And it's the certificate trust hierarchy all over again. We keep working on the same problems.

Like the two cases I mentioned, this is a matter of making adjustments until you have the desired result. Never perfect, always improving (well, we hope). This means we need liquidity with the rules and heuristics. How do we best get that?

sroussey 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Incentives.

First X people that reproduce Y get Z percent of patent revenue.

Or something similar.

rtkwe 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Most papers generate zero patent revenue or even lead to patents at all. For major drugs maybe that works but we already have clinical trials before the drug goes to market that validate the efficacy of the drugs.

jltsiren 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Patent revenue is mostly irrelevant, as it's too unpredictable and typically decades in the future. Academics rarely do research that can be expected to produce economic value in the next 10–20 years, because the industry can easily outspend the academia in such topics.

wizzwizz4 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm delighted to inform you that I have reproduced every patent-worthy finding of every major research group active in my field in the past 10 years. You can check my data, which is exactly as theory predicts (subject to some noise consistent with experimental error). I accept payment in cash.

poulpy123 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I'd love to see future reporting that instead of saying "Research finds amazing chemical x which does y" you see "Researcher reproduces amazing results for chemical x which does y. First discovered by z".

But nobody want to pay for it

soiltype 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That feels arbitrary as a measure of quality. Why isn't new research simply devalued and replication valued higher?

"Dr Alice failed to reproduce 20 would-be headline-grabbing papers, preventing them from sucking all the air out of the room in cancer research" is something laudable, but we're not lauding it.

geokon 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

usually you reproduce previous research as a byproduct of doing something novel "on top" of the previous result. I dont really see the problem with the current setup.

sometimes you can just do something new and assume the previous result, but thats more the exception. youre almost always going to at least in part reproducr the previous one. and if issues come up, its often evident.

thats why citations work as a good proxy. X number of people have done work based around this finding and nobody has seen a clear problem

theres a problem of people fabricating and fudging data and not making their raw data available ("on request" or with not enough meta data to be useful) which wastes everyones time and almost never leads to negative consequences for the authors

gcr 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It's often quite common to see a citation say "BTW, we weren't able to reproduce X's numbers, but we got fairly close number Y, so Table 1 includes that one next to an asterisk."

The difficult part is surfacing that information to readers of the original paper. The semantic scholar people are beginning to do some work in this area.

geokon 3 hours ago | parent [-]

yeah thats a good point. the citation might actually be pointing out a problem and not be a point in favor. its a slog to figure out... but seems like the exact type of problem an LLM could handle

give it a published paper and it runs through papers that have cited it and give you an evaluation

4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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graemep 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> you have to measure productivity somehow,

No, you do not have to. You give people with the skills and interest in doing research the money. You need to ensure its spent correctly, that is all. People will be motivated by wanting to build a reputation and the intrinsic reward of the work

warkdarrior 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> If you measure raw number of papers (more common in developing countries and low-tier universities), you incentivize a flood of junk.

This is exactly what rewarding replication papers (that reproduce and confirm an existing paper) will lead to.

pixl97 5 hours ago | parent [-]

And yet if we can't reproduce an existing paper, it's very possible that existing paper is junk itself.

Catch-22 is a fun game to get caught in.

jimbokun 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> The challenge is there really isn't a good way to incentivize that work.

Ban publication of any research that hasn't been reproduced.

wpollock 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Ban publication of any research that hasn't been reproduced.

Unless it is published, nobody will know about it and thus nobody will try to reproduce it.

sroussey 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Just have a new journal of only papers that have been reproduced, and include the reproduction papers.

gcr 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

lol, how would the first paper carrying some new discovery get published?