| ▲ | embedding-shape 4 hours ago |
| Assuming all these companies are interested in launching their own constellations of ~10K-100K satellites into L/MEO, how many companies could actually do this before cascading collisions starts becoming a real worry? |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > how many companies could actually do this before cascading collisions starts becoming a real worry? Twenty of them at 100,000 birds each to start approaching the density of planes in the sky [1]. Not around an airport. In all of the sky. Oceans and all. Practically speaking, this is not a pressing concern for our generation. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46711405 |
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| ▲ | manacit 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's interesting that people have a hard time visualizing this. The area in Earth's LEO is, definitionally, bigger than the Earth itself. The SEA parking garage fits 12,000 cars in it. Two of those spread over the entire planet would be an imperceptible amount of space. You could drop a pin on a map your entire life and probably never hit one. | | |
| ▲ | paulb73 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | SEA parking garage? Unfamiliar with this size reference. | | |
| ▲ | mlmonkey 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Here, "SEA" = "Seattle Tacoma International Airport" in the state of Washington, USA. | | | |
| ▲ | 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | y1n0 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is fair but the cars are stationary, occupying a parking space. Satellites occupy a ring. |
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| ▲ | Gravityloss 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Speed matters a lot. You can fit a lot more walking people than speeding motorcycles in the same space. Satellites need to travel at 8 km/s to not fall down. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Speed matters a lot Not really. You're correct inasmuch as it increases collision energies. But it also increases momentum, which maintains orbital integrity within predictable bounds. Nobody is maneuvering around satellites, they–and their debris–stay where the math tells them to. | | |
| ▲ | Gravityloss an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Thought experiment: Let's say you are simulating ten thousand satellites on your computer, and the simulation runs until there is a crash. Now let's say the simulation runs for an hour normally. If you increase the speed of the simulation, you get to a crash in a shorter time. Satellites move about 30x the speed of airliners. Hence, if everything else was similar, one would expect 30x the amount of collisions. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent [-] | | > Satellites move about 30x the speed of airliners. Hence, if everything else was similar, one would expect 30x the amount of collisions Not how orbital mechanics work. Planes maneuvers, get tossed around and have hubs they circle. A plane under my left wing can’t be relied on to continue in a straight line. The satellite can. |
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| ▲ | notahacker 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Orbits are predictable, but they intersect and decay [at different rates] and occasionally get perturbed by space weather. This already needs periodic conjunction avoidance manoeuvres, and whilst orbits are fast satellite manoeuvres are slow, so the notice you need to avoid a conjunction is measured in hours rather than seconds. Can't imagine a scenario in which it would be sustainable for LEO to even approach the density of commercial aviation, except perhaps for a hypothetical where a single entity actually managed all the satellites. The other underestimated dimension is that satellite manoeuvres use up a finite supply of expensively-launched propellant. That's tolerable when Starlink is doing 50k conjunction avoidance manoeuvres in six months across its constellation, but once it becomes each satellite moving at least weekly you either need bigger satellites carrying more propellant or have to accept significantly higher collision risk than they currently do. | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > and whilst orbits are fast satellite manoeuvres are slow This is something people unfamiliar tend to misconceive in their limited thinking on the subject. You can't just tap the breaks to slow down. Changing altitude of satellites is done by speeding up to increase altitude and slowing down to lower altitude. Once you change the velocity and reach the desired altitude, you have to then undo that acceleration to get back to orbital velocity. Fuel is required in both directions. The less fuel used the better for the maneuver. Most satellites EoL is defined by remaining maneuvering fuel vs functionality of the hardware. My first understanding of accelerating in space was from the old Asteroids game. To slow down, you had to rotate 180° and start accelerating in that direction. Others might learn it from Kerbal. | | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent [-] | | > This is something people unfamiliar tend to misconceive in their limited thinking on the subject I have a background in astronautical engineering. While you can't tap the brakes to 'slow down', you can impart miniscule amounts of impulse which, over the course of hundreds of orbits, will change your plane by an imperceptible amount from a distance, but tens or hundreds of kilometers up close. OM being OM, you can predicts these collisions in advance. I had a professor who referred to orbits not in altitude but in expected decay time. We're currently in the months to single-digit years orbits. (We will stay there for telecommunications due to latency.) If we were doing at decades or centuries what we're doing in LEO, this would be a problem. At LEO, it's a nuisance and barely more. | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 37 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > you can impart miniscule amounts of impulse which, over the course of hundreds of orbits right. this is what is counter-intuitive for those that are not familiar with space. they don't just light the burner and boost to a new altitude. the part about stopping the acceleration with an opposite burn is often not considered. most think you can fly a space ship like a jet fighter, but in space. can't blame them since that's how sci-fi portrays it. real life space flight is really boring in comparison. jumping out of FTL to land in orbit around a planet makes me laugh every. single. time. |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > whilst orbits are fast satellite manoeuvres are slow, so the notice you need to avoid a conjunction is measured in hours rather than seconds I'm not arguing against collisions becoming more likely. I'm arguing aginst it becoming commonplace to the point that it becomes a commercial concern. > satellite manoeuvres use up a finite supply of expensively-launched propellant Nobody is plane changing out of a collision. And for the foreseeable future, in LEO, the birds are not propellant constrained. (And launch is getting cheaper.) > you either need bigger satellites carrying more propellant or have to accept significantly higher collision risk than they currently do We're decades away from this being a problem. That gives ample runtime to developing e.g. magnetic station-keeping (if we go reactionless) or more-efficient engines. | | |
| ▲ | defrost an hour ago | parent [-] | | > e.g. magnetic station-keeping I've not kept up for decades now .. what's the state of solar powered magnetorquers these days? I'd quietly assumed it would be more commonplace. I dimly recall a couple of small satellites magnetically locking fifteen or so years past? |
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| ▲ | WarmWash 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Make the US land area ~20% larger. Randomly place 50,000 shoe boxes up and down the entire eastern seaboard. Randomly place 50,000 shoe boxes up and down the entire western seaboard. Send them in straight lines towards the other side of the country. See if any collide. Almost certainly none of them will. Edit: They will almost certainly For reference, if you placed all 50k boxes next to each other on the same beach, it would be about 10 miles wide. The total shoreline on either side would be ~1800 miles wide. And that's only 2D. |
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| ▲ | hatthew 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | By my calculations there will be an average of 500 collisions, no? Each shoebox has an effective width of 2 feet, and with 50k of them that's about 1% density. With 50k in the other direction, and about a 1% collision rate, that's 500 collisions. | | |
| ▲ | WarmWash 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Seems like you're right, I didn't actually run through the statistics and just went with intuition. Yikes | | |
| ▲ | hatthew 2 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Yeah my intuition was the same; if I had 1 second to make a guess I probably would have said 1% chance of >0 collisions |
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| ▲ | thomascountz 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This is funnily oddly specific. | | |
| ▲ | woah 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Spoken like someone who's never placed a shoebox on a seaboard |
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| ▲ | m4rtink 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If they put their sats low enough (like Starlink already mostly does) any collision debris should be quickly deorbitted by drag, before a cascade can happen. |
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| ▲ | wmf 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| AFAIK they're in separate shells so the probability of collision is basically zero. |
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| ▲ | idiotsecant 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Things you put in orbit at a certain elevation don't stay at that elevation forever. | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Presumably, there would be a corridor for traveling through elevations whether that was for reaching orbit or de-orbiting. The people placing things in orbit are not doing this with out coordination. |
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| ▲ | torginus 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Even if these sats do collide and produce debris, they are in decaying orbits, so that stuff will eventually fall back down. |
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| ▲ | dylan604 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Debris moves in 3D. Debris moving up will continue moving up. There is no force acting on it to bring it back down. Your comment makes it sound like an explosion would only be in 2D along the same orbit as the original object. | | |
| ▲ | KiwiJohnno 4 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That is not how orbital mechanics work. It may seem counterintuitive, but if something in orbit gets a push that isn’t strong enough to make it totally escape orbit, it will stay in a new elliptical orbit. That new orbit will pass through the point where the push happened, so it will come back through that location again, just with a different speed and direction. | |
| ▲ | toast0 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | > There is no force acting on it to bring it back down. Gravity? But also orbital dynamics (at least as I understand it) means debris that debris that is flung up is going to have a more oval orbit, so the high point (apogee) increases and the low point (perigee) decreases. And a lower perigee means more atmospheric drag, which will help deorbit the debris. | | |
| ▲ | dylan604 7 minutes ago | parent [-] | | That'd have to be one slow explosion to give it less than 1G of acceleration. |
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| ▲ | suncore 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| According to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b66ZZ05wKC0 this might end very badly very soon. |
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| ▲ | chris_va 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| What your describing is called Kessler Syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome ... It is a very real possibility, but less of a problem below 550km altitude because the decay time is much shorter (and why all of these mega constellations tend to stay at lower altitude, even though ~1000km is generally better for a communications satellite). |