Why is polymarket any more or less dangerous than NFTs or naked option trading?

Fool and his money are quickly separated…

Because it is gambling.

NFTs have zero value but people seem to derive non-monetary value from them. Naked option trading is a form of gambling (as well as risk management) and, as a result, it is regulated.

Polymarket is a "financial investment" for regulatory purposes but is gambling, there is no legitimate risk management reason. As a result, there is massive scope for harm because it is gambling without any of the gambling regulations that exist in the US.

People on this site appear to be unaware that gambling is regulated where legal. I will give you an example: Polymarket do not comply with state regulator's exclusion/no market lists. This is immoral. Gambling companies should not take bets from users who have gambling problems, they should not market to them.

Offshore unregulated books will often market themselves to addicts saying that they do not comply with regulator's exclusion lists...this is an onshore book operating in Lexington Avenue New York, not out of a shed with a pig sty in Curaco. It is unbelievable at many levels.

The article’s point was not that Polymarket is the problem-the point is validating and advertising Polymarket on national news outlets will have ugly consequences.

Marketed to a broader audience with more users, like sports betting?

And to be fair options trading used to be pretty limited in users too, until apps like robinhood tried to democratize it.

To be fair, when you place bets on Polymarket, your losses are limited to the money you put up.

But if you write uncovered options, your losses are theoretically unlimited.

Agreed, though. It's bizarre that this isn't regulated exactly like gambling. Because... that's what it is.

Zvi Mowshowitz has an excellent article on the devastating effects that legalizing sports betting has had: https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp...

Personally I find it sickening to see ads that say you can get rich betting on the weather. I haven't seen ads for polymarket but Kalshi's ads are absolutely predatory.

Naked option trading is certainly the worst of the three from a financial risk perspective for the beginner.

Although polymarket would do the best at "attraction" towards the average uninformed consumer because the bets and how to place them are far more understandable than the various option trading strategies.

It's a website where people can make bets on how certain geopolitical and public events shake out.

I used to think it's just yet another way to people with more money than sense to get their kicks.

But then I saw the true reason why the platform is terrifying - it gives people who have nontrivial amounts riding on the line a very powerful incentive to influence said events.

I have seen expertly crafted and highly convincing narratives - that I know to be false from firsthand experience - spring up inside (and presumably outside) the platform spring up on an issue. There was the thing where the ISW (a reputable military think tank) reported an Ukrainian city was captured (when in fact it wasn't) in order to win a bet.

Imagine if next time someone leaks some military intel in order to hedge a bet. Money, especially lots of it, is a very powerful motivator.

There's also no way to check and control who has insider info or has influence on the outcome (as betting against them is essentially suicide)

It bother lowers the threshold and increases the breadth of things that can be bet in. It's a gambling addiction nightmare.

It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc...

Ive seen people point out White House press conferences do weird shit, like cut the conference 10 seconds before some polymarket prop bet of "how long will this press conference be".

Much more heinously, a few months ago right before one of Trumps asinine tariff announcements, someone took out a $300M BTC short position that was almost certainly from a WH insider.

I honestly don't care if someone loses all their money gambling, but the problem I have is how so many institutions are able to be undermined at a fundamental level do the existence of polymarket.

because not everyone does naked option trading or nfts... while straight up gambling on 50/50 odds is WAY more enticing.

> Fool and his money are quickly separated…

Example: I had a flutter on the US Election. The odds were well in favour of Trump winning and I figured that was never going to happen, so I thought I was putting 'smart money' on Kamala.

I stand by it being 'smart' money ;)

I underestimated 'dumb' (which, I guess, isn't 'smart').